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Dan Walker

 
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  • Market Skepticism About BofA / Merrill Deal [View article]
    Given that the combination of skeptics and fear have prevented MER stock from reflecting the price of the offer on Monday, an arbitrage of long MER and short BAC should produce profit with the $5+ risk/reward the premium for the risk of the sale falling through given an 0.8595 stock swap price and BAC's Monday closing price of 26.55. I really don't see how Merill can back out and BAC seems to love the deal so short of a shareholder revolt (like the one last year to keep this crap from happening at Bear or Lehman?) its done. Shotgun weddings seem all the vogue on Wall Street these days.
    Sep 16, 2008. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Spikes as Indicator of Market Capitulation [View article]
    Excellent point. However, it does prompt me to wonder, with a nod to ewave theory, how risky historically it would be to buy the 5th volatility spike? At this point it is more of an academic than a strategy question, but one I will ponder.
    Sep 16, 2008. 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Spikes as Indicator of Market Capitulation [View article]
    You have an excellent point, but with a nod to ewave theory, I have to wonder historically how much you risk by buying the 5th volatility spike? At this point it is more of an academic than strategy question, but it is something I will kick around.
    Sep 16, 2008. 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP and the Decline of National Statistics [View article]
    There are a few good comments in here but do the rest of these people live on the same planet I do?

    For the people of the left coast: Oil is expensive now. It will stay that way until all the SUV driving idiots talking on cellphones get off the freeway. There is no democrat you can elect which which will change this fact. The democrats want to starve us of oil and the republicans want to put us deeper in debt. Who do you propose to elect? The rest of the country will give you one more chance, but your track record is looking pretty dismal.
    Aug 29, 2008. 03:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adjusted for Household Size, Real Income Reached an All-Time High in 2007 [View article]
    Paul&&...if you do not like America, stay off NYMEX. If we need people to use our services and complain, we have New Yorkers.

    Mark, you ever lie to someone taking a poll on the phone? Do you even answer the phone for a poll (I sure don't)?
    Aug 28, 2008. 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reign of Uncertainty in Financial Markets [View article]
    Never try to teach a pig to sing. It is a waste of time and it annoys the pig.
    Aug 28, 2008. 04:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Depression? [View article]
    Everyone is forgetting that the central bankers are not looking to become part of the unemployment statistics any time soon.

    Yes, we are in debt up to our eyeballs and that debt requires most of the planet's savings to keep it afloat. Yes, we do not have a lot of headroom to borrow more. Yes, the central bankers are aware of this.

    Why do you think the dollar rallied the last couple of weeks? Foreign dollar reserves at the Fed rose 100 billion in a couple of weeks. Why? The reason is twofold. One, to put downward pressure on commodity prices which were crippling economies worldwide because most of the commodities are priced in dollars. And two, to keep the US market from going further in the tank which will prompt further US borrowing to head off a collapse and put us closer to the day we cannot service the debt we owe them.

    It does not matter who gets elected in November. We are too far past the point of no return to fix what the village idiots in DC have done to us. We are now "The Economy too big to fail" and central bankers around the world are loosing sleep trying to come up with a way to keep us afloat.

    The choices are now either inflate globally to stave off depression, or depression itself. Or, as happened with the invention of the Credit Default Swap, hope some Cambridge graduate can come up with a brilliant idea which will hold off the inevitable for another 8-10 years and leave us in even worse shape. As a cynic, I am betting on option 3.
    Aug 28, 2008. 03:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Applying the Subprime Collapse to Gold, Silver and Commodities [View article]
    If you look at the foreign reserves held by the Fed, you will see an increase of $100B when gold dropped. The other central banks (all of whom operate on fiat currency) pushed the dollar up. This was just to get dollar-denominated commodities back in line. That is now pretty much moderating, so wait until January and you can buy the stocks at a much bigger discount.
    Aug 24, 2008. 04:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mighty Greenback Gets Some Breathing Room [View article]
    Elaine, getting Pelosi re-elected, considering she is currently viewed as the biggest impediment to western civilization on the horizon, will not be easy. Perhaps your efforts would be better spent there.
    Aug 9, 2008. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting More Constructive on Crude Oil [View article]
    ICBW,

    I could be wrong as well, but I am almost with you. I have been buying some physical silver the last week or so and bought my first physical gold yesterday. I picked up some OTM S&P puts on the close today but let me share why I have approached this so lightly.

    Number one, this is an election year and I would wager the PPT was called back from vacation a week ago because of the chart patterns the remainder of the month. Number two will require further contemplation and I may have an article to publish about this next week, but the gist is that possibly more money has been destroyed by the credit crisis to date than has been printed by the Fed. That is a sobering thought when contemplating gold. Oil is a bit different, but lets not overlook (although SA is about the only place any evidence remains) that we had an oil trading company which took 3.2B in losses on spec (as opposed to hedging) positions and the CTFC (with heavy prodding) found one account who held over 10% of the total futures and options volume for one month. It is still not clear (to me) if we are talking about the same or two different accounts.

    Be careful, my friend. In a pure capitalism, the odds favor an equity decline given the current setup. Personally I believe we will at least retest that 1200 low. But we are now in the age of socialist capitalism where the market will do what it will until it rolls over the wrong toes. On gold, I still expect at minimum $20-30 more down. Same caveat. Oil is on its way to $70bbl with everyone looking over their shoulder to see who is aiming what at whom. As you pointed out, it will decline until the first shot followed by a quick trip to the penthouse. That is where oil and the dollar index swap leads. Quickly.

    And finally, my congratulations again to Mr Cam for a bold, timely, and very prescient oil call.
    Aug 9, 2008. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Is the New Currency [View article]
    The Fitzman: Bush was not elected or re-elected because he was the superior leader. He was elected in both cases because he was the lesser evil. Until our current party system can provide choices better than 'dumb and dumber' or 'bad and worse', nothing will change and that also applies to JM, BO, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the village idiots. You are part of the problem for blaming one person for what required the entire village. For my opinion on the chances of better choices under the current system, see the disclaimer.

    There is a point most people seem to miss on this subject and that harkens back to basic finance class. When banks lend money, the proceeds are deposited in some bank and it is loaned again subject to the prevailing reserve requirement. Repeat as needed. This is money creation under the fractional reserve system. Money is destroyed when the loans are repaid and the money supply contracts. What you never hear in finance class is that loan default has the same effect on the money supply as repayment. By the time subprime, prime, HELOC, and credit card bubbles are all fully deflated, we are possibly looking at 2 trillion dollars missing from the money supply. Old Ben may seize the bearings on the presses trying to keep up with that kind of money destruction. Clearly (I hope) we will not bail out the foreign holders of these assets. That portion of the money supply will be destroyed for good. If Ben 'n Hank can hold their bailouts under the amount of dollar destruction caused by the default of dollar based mortgage assets owned by foreign holders, gold looks overpriced. I'm betting that they have already budgeted their estimates of that amount as the dollar amount they can spend on bailouts. For my guess on the accuracy of their estimates; Disclaimer: I am buying gold, already loaded on silver and seriously pondering these points. There will be spikes and dips as we discover the truth. Proceed at your own risk.
    Aug 7, 2008. 06:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke: The New "Death Star" [View article]
    Volcker brought inflation under control. Bernanke, so far, has just kicked it into double digits and then tried to jawbone it down.
    Jul 25, 2008. 05:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banks: Is This the Biggest Bear Squeeze in History? [View article]
    Number one, let me go on record that naked short selling was banned in the 30's and it served us well for 75 years. I think it should still be applied for ALL stocks and not just the ones who can continue to fund the FED's malfeasance in favor of the banking industry.

    Assuming that protection is in place, short sellers are NECESSARY simply because they provide a bid in a downdraft (sub-optimal price discovery process for you liberals). You want an air pocket under a collapsing stock? That is the shortest path to zero.
    Jul 22, 2008. 05:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was That THE Bottom? [View article]
    Excellent analysis and sound advice. I seriously doubt you will have to regret saying any of this. You are also looking good on your call on oil. Best wishes going forward.
    Jul 18, 2008. 05:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility and Sentiment: Today Doesn't Matter [View article]
    ICouldBeWrong, thanks for the ticker for the old VIX! And it went [I]well[I] over 30.
    Jul 17, 2008. 04:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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