Dan Walker

Volatility Spikes as Indicator of Market Capitulation

Excellent point. However, it does prompt me to wonder, with a nod to ewave theory, how risky historically it would be to buy the 5th volatility spike? At this point it is more of an academic than a strategy question, but one I will ponder.

Volatility Spikes as Indicator of Market Capitulation

You have an excellent point, but with a nod to ewave theory, I have to wonder historically how much you risk by buying the 5th volatility spike? At this point it is more of an academic than strategy question, but it is something I will kick around.

Volatility and Sentiment: Today Doesn't Matter

ICouldBeWrong, thanks for the ticker for the old VIX! And it went [I]well[I] over 30.

Will the Fed 'Disappear' in the Next Decade?

xmplary: The FED's largest single stockholder is JP Morgan. The FED's stated mission is to look out for the banks' interests. Surely you do not expect FED policies to change as long as they exist?

Eric Fox: You really think our current lame-ass excuse for a congress can understand any of this, let alone do something about it? Guesswhotoo6 was a lot closer; we the people will have to do it. And the only way we will is to stop electing liberals, liars and fools (as if there is much difference). Things may get bad enough next year for that to actually happen.

Dollar and Oil Are Manipulated by ECB and Fed

I don't think you appreciate the degree of demand destruction going on in the states. I drove past a major lake on the 4th of July, and saw one powerboat. Oil rose $2 and fell back down after Iran launched 9 missiles. Watch oil prices today as they just fired 9 more. The futures traders are rolling their contacts forward a week before expiration and holding down deliveries as tankers build up in harbors. Sooner or later they will end up with their heads handed to them on plates. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.

Is it Time to Back Up the Truck?

Second HALF. Why is there no edit button here?

Is it Time to Back Up the Truck?

"By my estimation, we are currently at the low end of the fair-value range for the S&P 500."

The most polite way I have heard it put yet. But there is a gem in your conclusion...markets do not typically move in a straight line although almost straight down from May sure seems like it. We need a relief rally to shake out the weaker, later shorts. Then you can get your correction to the downside target. The problem is everyone else on the street knows this. What to do? I find it particularly disturbing that three institutions I would normally consider relatively sane and sober have forecast the biggest rally of all time in the second quarter. Shagging balls in the rough is normally my job; these guys are supposed to be on the green. What is going on here?

Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans?

Go back and look at a chart of the dollar index. We have recently had a higher high on an upswing for the first time in TWO YEARS. What is the definition of trend? Would you not suppose that the first occurance in two years MAY be early signs of a reversal? Cut Kathy some slack.

Path Dependency in the EU and U.S. Economies

icandoitdon, you are right about large investors holding (hoarding) oil which is causing our current problems. And you are, of course right about the FED debasing out currency. You shanked one into the woods with the part about China letting their currency float. That sinks the dollar and we can no longer afford to buy their output. We have to re-start producing our own goods. Great scenario for the US (after a couple of years of severe pain which will happen anyway), but the Chinese leadership is not populated by fools and they will not allow that to happen. Just think in terms of 'if I were in charge of that kind of cash inflow' to see which direction they may go.

The Dow In Euros

Sorry, I can't help but be a chartist here. We are almost at a previous low...do we bounce or do we sink? I have to think there is at lest a tradeable bounce somewhere around here. That plus the 5 wave down action.....

Market Action: Past, Present, Future

Two fundamental premises reign supreme: 1) The market is never wrong. 2) The market discounts EVERYTHING. Re-read point one and two. At this point in time, the market is discounting Obama getting elected President. The market discounted Kerry getting elected until August of 2004 when it bottomed at around 8700 on the Dow. At that point, the participants had a better view that GW would prevail (and I will not delve into the relative merits of THAT argument under present circumstances). Political discussions aside, the potential taxes, regulation, and socialism of Democratic leadership is hardly a balm to soothe the nerves of edgy traders. I believe everyone who has ever been in a pit has heard 'lord don't let the government screw it up worse'.

Clinton brought in Rubin, who congealed the PPT and kept equities pointed up and bonds pointed down. But when Clinton was Governor, Little Rock had more bond traders than anywhere outside NY (sorry Boca) and Clinton was friends with the worst of them. The traders had already met him at Memphis in May and had some feel for the guy.

Obama will have to show up in lower Manhattan and convince the traders he has the vision or the instinct, or else McCain will have to convince the same crowd he will win before equities will turn around. The market may give you head fakes; just remember point 1 and 2. A two month equity rally does not mean we are around the bend.

Don’t Worry About a Return to ‘70s Stagflation

Has it ever occurred to any of you jollies that the reason that 75% of the US economy is in consumer spending because the only US business activity still sourced in this country is retailing, golf courses and strip joints? (I am being a bit facetious, but not much)

Of course goods-producing jobs are now less than 20 percent of the national labor force; we sent it all overseas. What do you suggest when we can no longer afford to import stuff from China? I will be generous and call that happening in 2010. What then?

Pay Attention to Retail Sales and Import Prices

So the Joe's who still have a job are drowning their sorrows in PBR bought at the local Wal-Mart, which is what the data is telling me.

You are right, if the dollar does not turn around, Joe will be under the bus. Early indications sound like the Fed has noticed and maybe they can translate this one correctly. Let's hope 'ol Ben gets this one right.