Dan Walker

Where's the Bottom? Still Anybody's Guess

Regrettably, I fear you may be right. As much as I decry fiat currency, as much as I would love to see a stake driven in the heart of the federal reserve, as much as I fear the proposed bailout will decimate the dollar and collapse bond prices, he fact remains that our economy is still in better shape than its compatriots, and we may, in fact, emerge from this "crisis" smelling like a rose in global comparison. This is about as depressing a scenario as can be imagined. There is no reason to get long, but neither is the risk on the short side worth the reward. I can envision a post-bailout scenario where equities trade in a range the next two years while the dollar grinds down incessantly. This is the worst case scenario where short the dollar is the only remedy but the dollar keeps popping up because of weakness overseas. About the only thing to do is jump on gold and hope the PPT gets distracted or runs out of money.

Market Skepticism About BofA / Merrill Deal

Given that the combination of skeptics and fear have prevented MER stock from reflecting the price of the offer on Monday, an arbitrage of long MER and short BAC should produce profit with the $5+ risk/reward the premium for the risk of the sale falling through given an 0.8595 stock swap price and BAC's Monday closing price of 26.55. I really don't see how Merill can back out and BAC seems to love the deal so short of a shareholder revolt (like the one last year to keep this crap from happening at Bear or Lehman?) its done. Shotgun weddings seem all the vogue on Wall Street these days.