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Dan Weiss

 
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  • Preview of AspenBio's Potentially Blockbuster Clinical Trials [View article]
    Awakening- at this point its a wait and see on APPY. I dont think anyone liked the wording of that press release and I definitely have my doubts about the management team at this point. That being said the stock is now priced completely for failure on AppyScore so any positive data that they are able to get out of the trial would be a positive.
    Jun 9 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview of AspenBio's Potentially Blockbuster Clinical Trials [View article]
    Emory- I did not write a ten predictions for 2010 so Im assuming you are talking about someone else. My last major predictions public piece was in regards to stocks to buy under the Obama administration which have greatly outperformed all of the key indices. In regards to APPY, I have lost money just like anyone else in the stock and have not ever been affiliated in any way with AspenBio.
    Jun 9 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview of AspenBio's Potentially Blockbuster Clinical Trials [View article]
    FYI.. New targets from Jeffrey Frelick at ThinkEquity. Conservative estimate if study points to no improvement in NPV or sensitivity $6, average scenario if small improvement in NPV or sensitivity $10, bullish scenario of significant improvement in NPV and sensitivity $22. Timing still most likely in late May to first two weeks of June.
    May 22 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview of AspenBio's Potentially Blockbuster Clinical Trials [View article]
    I have expanded my original timeline after speaking with the company to: May 17-June 18 to reflect the increased complexity due to testing on three different options and the fact that the company would like to have the results along with the 510k submittal closer together.
    May 13 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview of AspenBio's Potentially Blockbuster Clinical Trials [View article]
    Interesting article from the University of Pennsylvania on AppyScore for those who may be interested: www.uphs.upenn.edu/new.../
    May 2 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview of AspenBio's Potentially Blockbuster Clinical Trials [View article]
    I tend to be a longer term investor so Im not concerned with day to day volatility. The stock has traded with tremendous volume in the past week so a period of consolidation is not unexpected and does not change any of my longer term price targets. I would note that my $12-16 target is based upon full FDA approval of the 15 minute device and not on the clinical study results expected in the next 1-3 weeks although $8 is a reasonable target if the results prove to show strong efficacy. Note that if the results were to not show efficacy (which I consider to have very remote odds: 10% or less) the stock would substantially decline.
    Apr 29 01:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AspenBio: Bursting with Possibilities [View article]
    The specificity was actually 60% when combined with a WBC at a 15 cutoff and 70% at a 20 cutoff with an NPV of 98%. If these results are repeated, I dont think APPY will have any problems having this product at nearly every emergency room in the country (but we will wait for the results in a couple of weeks to confirm).
    Apr 27 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview of AspenBio's Potentially Blockbuster Clinical Trials [View article]
    An additional point is that a retrospective analysis of the clinical results of the 1/09 study showed that AppyScore combined with WBC resulted in an NPV of 98%. I anticipate additional confirmation of these results in a couple of weeks but as always with any biotech they are speculative investments. This compares to the current standard of care which is a CT scan having a NPV of just 78%.
    Apr 25 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will AspenBio Pharma Follow in Dendreon and Human Genome Sciences' Footsteps? [View article]
    Im thinking that the author is referring to the potential market size of APPY rather than the science which is quite different between the three different companies.
    Apr 25 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview of AspenBio's Potentially Blockbuster Clinical Trials [View article]
    Appyscore as a standalone had an 87% NPV in the study conducted in early 2009 which was the primary reason for the large decline in share price at that time. The company retroactively looked at results where Appyscore was used in combination with WBC or neutrophil and the NPV results were higher than 95%. Because the original clinical study did not specify that the Appyscore was to be used in conjunction with a WBC or neutrophil the company could not successfully present this data in an FDA filing which is the primary reason for the just recently completed clinical study. The labeling of the product will likely be, "“to be used to evaluate patients with abdominal pain suspicious for acute appendicitis” whereby it can rule out negative cases and prevent unnecessary CT scans.
    Apr 25 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Compelling Value in Highbury Financial [View article]
    Highbury acquisition has gone through by AMG.
    Apr 25 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview of AspenBio's Potentially Blockbuster Clinical Trials [View article]
    We have been doing work on the website-- thanks. In the meantime I would be happy to share my other ideas with those who may be interested.
    Apr 25 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • APPY Options Appear Mispriced into Results [View instapost]
    Im also a fan of the May 2.5 call options which are priced very inexpensive for a major pending event.
    Apr 20 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AspenBio Pharma Poised for a Breakout Year [View article]
    News today (2/9) is a potential net positive for the company although it does mean a slight delay in a decision. The company will be releasing results of a pivotal study with 800 patients in March (the study will be completed within 30 days from today). I am expecting strong results on at least 2 of the 3 components which if it were to occur would likely push the share price much higher from today's level. The risk is clearly that the study fails to show AppyScore works by itself and with other items such as a CBC.
    Feb 9 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AspenBio: Bursting with Possibilities [View article]
    My timeline is unchanged from the prior release with an expected decision somewhere around the beginning of 2010.
    Sep 9 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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