Dan Weiss

AspenBio: Bursting with Possibilities

My timeline is unchanged from the prior release with an expected decision somewhere around the beginning of 2010.

A Look at ISTA's Strong Pipeline

approval just given for bepreve after the closing bell today.

Cinryze Approved: A Significant Catalyst for Viropharma, Lev Pharmaceuticals

Solid growth of Cinryze sales from Viropharma just reported this morning. In terms of looking ahead, DYAX is next up on the plate for potential approval of an acute HAE indication.

FDA Calendar: 2H09 Binary Event Trades

I would advise extreme caution on BIEL. In the first quarter of 2009 alone (January-March) the company nearly doubled its shares outstanding from 266.9 million to 492.2 million with sales at 0.005 per share and I would not be shocked if significant additional shares were issued since then.

AspenBio: Bursting with Possibilities

The typical length is 90 days, however, APPY has a significant amount of information in the filing which will typically result in more communication between the company and the FDA resulting in a more realistic timeline being approximately 180 days (although its always possible the period could be shorter). In terms of market potential the appendicitis test has an overall market possibility of $1 billion or more on a global scale (which is not far off from the market size of HGSI with lupus considering that company's split with Glaxo). My current expectation is for likely approval of the ELISA at the end of this year with the hopeful full approval of the AppyScore test coming later next year.

FDA Calendar Updates: AspenBio, CytRx, Cephalon, Pozen, Sanofi, AMAG

I like APPY here although the full market potential will likely not be reached until the second half of 2010. The firm has developed the first test for appendicitis which will not require a CT scan and is currently pending its first 510k submission to the FDA. Ive spoken with almost a dozen physicians who say if this works it will become the standard of care in emergency rooms where anyone who has abdomen pain will be given this test. Estimates for the global market from Think equity, a respected investment research firm are around $1 billion per year, all for a company with a less then $100 million market cap. Of course, this is a highly speculative name but one where if it hits returns of 12-18x the current price or more is very possible.

FDA Calendar Updates: AMAG, POZN, AZN, SNY, CEPH, APPY, CYTR

APPY is starting to look very interesting here as a binary play with a market cap of just $80M and a $1B possible annual sale level if there product is FDA approved.

A Look at ISTA's Strong Pipeline

Very positive briefing docs completed by FDA yesterday for panel meeting on 6/26. Bepreve showed no major side effects (minor side effect of dry mouth was found) and p values showed that Bepreve is effective with conjunctivitis and itching of the eye. Should set up for a positive vote tomorrow.

Buying ViroPharma Ahead of June 3rd FDA Decision

The larger item for Viropharma will be the FDA decision in August on whether generic companies can create Vancocin but the acute HAE decision is also important for VPHM.

Preview of Monday and Tuesday's Earnings Flood

Fantastic results from ALGT. They seem to be winning on two fronts with lower energy prices and by a trading down effect of consumers. Interesting that this company could earn $5 per share this year in a recessionary environment assuming no major spikes in oil prices. Looks interesting in the low 50s.

The Short Case on Strayer Education

I actually like some education stocks on the long side but LOPE looks like a near no-brainer short at this time based on valuation. Also, APEI looks expensive at these levels. A stock like DV is actually relatively attractive at my opinion based solely on valuation.

Six Sectors Presenting Opportunities as Obama Takes Office

Meadow Valley acquisition closed today with 75% premium to today's closing price of $6.41. Deal closed at $11.25, Congrats to those who own the stock.

Four Stocks to Teach the Market a Lesson

I like your strategy but I am not a fan of COCO or CECO in the sector. DV, ESI or STRA are much stronger players in the education industry without the issues that COCO and CECO have faced in recent years. STRA is a bit expensive for my taste but DV or ESI could be nice setups.

Three Short Ideas: Standard Pacific, Under Armour and Trump Entertainment

All three names have shown material losses since the post although the decline in UA is a bit less then I would have expected. I would continue to be bearish on all three names although at $0.19 TRMP may be worth covering even with a $0 target.

Ultra Short Treasury ETF: Have Patience, Money Will Eventually Flow Again

In the short-term Treasuries could actually continue to rally. Economic conditions will remain poor through at least much of next year and the Federal Reserve's new policy is quantitative easing through the purchase of these bonds which would be shorted in these instruments. Keep in mind in Japan that the 10-year rates fell below 1% so anything is possible. Long term, I agree with the author 100% that Treasuries are overvalued but they can be propped up for a long time by the Government.