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Dana Blankenhorn

 
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  • Can You Make A Case For Statoil?
    Yesterday, 10:12 AM STO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Statoil has been beaten down with oil prices.
    • It lost its CEO and made some big mistakes.
    • It's written off the mistakes and has the cash to grow.
  • I Can See The Next Recession, But This Isn't It
    Tue, Oct. 28 USO, OIL, UCO 29 Comments

    Summary

    • This has been the energy decade. It ends with oversupply.
    • The oil market is currently oversupplied, but it can recover from that in the near term.
    • Analysts are ignoring the permanence of renewables on the grid as they once ignored shale oil.
  • No One Wants To Hear Anything Good About Amazon, But...
    Fri, Oct. 24 AMZN 89 Comments

    Summary

    • Break out Amazon's tech revenues from merchandise sales, and the stock is at industry multiples.
    • The Fire Phone mistake is on the books, and should not impact future results.
    • This company is still growing at 20% per year, and the stock is thus dirt-cheap.
  • Kinder Morgan Is Prepared To Control The Oil Industry For Its Own Good
    Thu, Oct. 23 KMI 65 Comments

    Summary

    • The U.S. oil industry has lost control of its market.
    • Solar has been outperforming oil through all of 2014.
    • Kinder Morgan has the capital to rationalize the market and bring back profits.
  • The Changing Nature Of Twitter Demands Your Attention
    Thu, Oct. 23 TWTR 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Fabric gets Twitter back in bed with developers.
    • Fabric delivers analytics, sign-ups and advertising to apps with just a few clicks.
    • The company was growing already. Here is a new catalyst.
  • Who Should Buy EMC Now?
    Wed, Oct. 22 EMC 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite the break up of HP talks, EMC remains on the block.
    • There are four likely candidates to be a purchaser.
    • Expect a deal within six months.
  • Liar's Poker In The Oil Patch
    Wed, Oct. 22 WLL, EOG, LINE 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Costs and margins are going to be tested this winter.
    • Bakken oil seems to have lower margins than Texas crude.
    • There are plays for every assumption you can make.
  • Apple Pay Hoopla Shows We Have Hit Peak Apple
    Tue, Oct. 21 AAPL 227 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple Pay is overhyped and threatens no one in the payment industry.
    • Apple is getting killed in the smartphone business on a global basis.
    • Apple is a great company, but the stock's best days may be behind it.
  • Which Stock Will Be Taken Out And Shot Next?
    Mon, Oct. 20 AMZN, IBM, NFLX 4 Comments

    Summary

    • In the wake of the correction investors want to take out and shoot specific stocks.
    • IBM and Netflix have suffered this fate just recently.
    • Apple and Amazon may follow this week.
  • Who Wins After The Snapback Rally?
    Fri, Oct. 17 DIS 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Low oil prices are good for the coasts and the suburbs.
    • It's going to be a Merry Christmas, as workers just got a raise with lower gasoline prices.
    • As the Ebola scare fades, consumer stocks will benefit.
  • Comcast Is Winning The Internet Access Battle Because It Owns Content
    Thu, Oct. 16 CMCSA 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Internet access is becoming a TV medium.
    • ISPs that own content are beating those that don't.
    • Big ones that don't are going to have to buy content to survive.
  • Dealing With The Twin Gluts Of Market Correction
    Thu, Oct. 16 AMZN, BRK.A, CMCSA 8 Comments

    Summary

    • We have an oil glut, and a money glut. Both are political events, not economic ones.
    • This too shall pass. Be ready when it does.
    • The real recession happens when renewables scale. Look for the next technology wave.
  • Will Ellison Get Chance To Turn JC Penney Around?
    Tue, Oct. 14 JCP 17 Comments

    Summary

    • JC Penney's currently is at risk of bankruptcy.
    • Marvin Ellison is the right choice to turn the company around.
    • Consider the stock if it can get through Christmas.
  • Costs Suddenly Matter In The Oil Patch
    Tue, Oct. 14 CP 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Lower prices put a premium on lower cost plays.
    • Canadian Pacific is already trying to diversify away from the Bakken and Alberta sands plays.
    • Look for high debt-equity ratios and get some bargains when they're taken out by majors.
  • J.C. Penney Problems No Longer Penneys' Alone
    Thu, Oct. 9 JCP 29 Comments

    Summary

    • J.C. Penney stock collapsed this week with no good reason.
    • Its turnaround plan is on track.
    • The real problem is no one wants to go to the mall anymore.
  • AMD: Su Hire Shows How The Game Has Changed
    Thu, Oct. 9 AMD 145 Comments

    Summary

    • AMD replaced CEO Rory Read with Lisa Su yesterday.
    • The stock tanked, thinking this was another female exec going into an impossible situation.
    • The skeptics are wrong. Su has the skills AMD needs now, and her roadmap is clear.
  • Fracking Has Not Yet Made The U.S. An Autonomous Oil Market
    Mon, Oct. 6 BRK.A, CVX, EOG 69 Comments

    Summary

    • The U.S. industry, which once held oil prices down, is now seeing them forced down further.
    • Production is rising, but so are costs. Costs can come down in the short run, raising profitability.
    • Oil is not yet de-coupled from world prices, the way natural gas is.
  • At HP, Don't Buy What The Politician Is Selling
    Mon, Oct. 6 HPQ 34 Comments

    Summary

    • CEO Meg Whitman now wants to split the company into pieces to increase their value.
    • This is precisely the plan that got her predecessor, Leo Apotheker, fired in 2011.
    • Since becoming CEO Whitman has cut 55,000 employees and reduced sales. Is this really success?
  • The 'Sarah Palin' Oil Shock
    Fri, Oct. 3 APA, CHK, CLR 129 Comments

    Summary

    • A drill, baby drill mentality has production outrunning infrastructure.
    • Producers lack the capital needed to commit to new infrastructure.
    • Falling prices could make the disconnect worse.
  • Time For Yahoo To Buy The New York Times
    Thu, Oct. 2 YHOO 48 Comments

    Summary

    • The Times has a big name brand Yahoo lacks.
    • Yahoo has the cash, and the Times would cost half what AOL would.
    • Yahoo has been on the march to media for a decade, and this would cap it.
    • Buying the Times would protect Yahoo from a foreign takeover.
  • What Jack Ma Thinks Will Drive The Hong Kong Crisis
    Wed, Oct. 1 AMZN, BABA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • See Alibaba as a proxy for China as the Hong Kong crisis continues.
    • CEO Jack Ma has said he will keep money in China, not move it to Hong Kong.
    • Use options on Alibaba to bet on the crisis' outcome.
  • Intel Now Worth Considering Under Krzanich
    Tue, Sep. 30 INTC 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Intel's decision making has changed fundamentally.
    • The decision to take minority stakes in Chinese chip-makers is a proof point.
    • So is its decision to let its Israeli unit Basis lead its wearables charge.
    • Intel is making the transition from value to growth again. Investors will be rewarded.
  • The Vultures Are Circling Yahoo And It Is Time To Join Them
    Mon, Sep. 22 YHOO 39 Comments

    Summary

    • With the Alibaba IPO done, we know the value of Yahoo's Asia holdings.
    • The holdings, plus the cash from its Alibaba share, are worth $10 billion more than the company.
    • Hedge funds are going to notice this and look to a break-up. Join them.
  • Why I Would Rather Own Amazon Than Alibaba
    Fri, Sep. 19 AMZN 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon benefits from being in a mature market with a mature political system.
    • Alibaba may be trustworthy, but China's government lacks the transparency investors need.
    • Alibaba is a great movie, but Amazon remains the better investment.
  • The End Of The Great Oracle-SAP Database War And What Comes Next
    Fri, Sep. 19 ORCL 16 Comments

    Summary

    • CEO Larry Ellison's retirement ends an era at Oracle.
    • It has been beating SAP but is being beaten in the cloud.
    • New co-CEO Mark Hurd has to find a way to buy Salesforce.com or Oracle is going down.
  • Time To Lighten Up On Big Tech As OECD Tax Man Cometh
    Wed, Sep. 17 AAPL, AMZN, GOOG 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Most industrial countries are agreeing to a standard of uniform tax reporting.
    • The move will cut off some of the tax avoidance plans of huge American tech companies.
    • Time to take some profits.
  • Apple Is A Luxury Brand And That Is The Problem
    Wed, Sep. 10 AAPL 139 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple is completely focused on the top end of the market.
    • Growth, and the bulk of sales, are at the center of the market.
    • Time to sell.
  • Can Apple Become A Services Company?
    Tue, Sep. 2 AAPL 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple's fortunes remain tied to hardware, with iTunes apps and songs a tiny portion of the whole.
    • Apple stock is riding high ahead of its September 9 new product launch.
    • Rumored services are unlikely to move the needle. Once products launch, sell.
  • Workday And The New Horizon In Cloud-Based Applications
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Aug. 29 WDAY 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Applications built on clouds are replacing other corporate infrastructure.
    • Few companies have such solutions like Salesforce.com and Workday do.
    • Investors need to be prepared for a hard fall when growth goes out of fashion.
  • Cloud Broadcasters Creating Barriers To Entry
    Thu, Aug. 28 AMZN, CBS, CMCSA Comment!

    Summary

    • Google, Netflix and Amazon have all emerged as threats to broadcasters.
    • Google and Amazon do it with infrastructure, Netflix with rights.
    • Of the three, Netflix is the most vulnerable.
  • GE Problems Are Structural But Are They Permanent
    Thu, Aug. 21 GE 26 Comments

    Summary

    • GE's strategy does not work in an atmosphere of low interest rates.
    • GE is not changing its industrial strategy. In fact it's accelerating it.
    • Wait for interest rates to rise before nibbling at this name.
  • IBM's Problems May Be Fatal
    Thu, Aug. 21 IBM 104 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM has put itself into the high-end corporate niche, where profit margins are shrinking.
    • IBM may be failing within that niche.
    • Financial engineering will no longer cover it up especially if interest rates rise.