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Dana Blankenhorn

 
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  • Lack Of Private Cloud Could Slow Red Hat
    Sat, Dec. 20 RHT 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Red Hat surprised analysts with earnings this week and the stock has taken off.
    • Red Hat has made Linux a mainstream server operating system.
    • Red Hat has invested heavily in private cloud, which has yet to take off.
  • Oracle Has Become An Application Software Company
    Sat, Dec. 20 ORCL 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Oracle brings $1 in every $4 of revenue to the bottom line, consistently.
    • It exhibits exquisite control of enterprise customers in what it calls "Oracle Cloud".
    • It's not really a cloud, but enterprises aren't buying private clouds anyway.
  • To The Question, 'FedEx Or UPS?' The Current Answer Is, 'Neither'
    Fri, Dec. 19 FDX 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Both FedEx and UPS fell yesterday on FedEx' earnings miss.
    • Both are fully priced and expecting only moderate growth.
    • Neither is presently a bargain, although UPS is a slightly better buy based on yield.
  • Can Paula Schneider Save American Apparel?
    Thu, Dec. 18 APP 6 Comments

    Summary

    • American Apparel is in desperate financial shape.
    • New CEO Schneider has built companies but never done a turnaround.
    • A new design vision is called for. Can she find it in time?
  • Oil: Why Do We Turn Good News Into Bad?
    Thu, Dec. 18 CAT, CREE, CRUD 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Energy bulls are wringing their hands when they should be celebrating.
    • The trends are toward efficiency, renewable energy, and more stable pricing.
    • You trade on the weather, but you invest in climate.
  • Carbonite Thinks It Is Ready For Take-Off, Not Take-Out
    Wed, Dec. 17 CARB 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Carbonite looks set to reject a $15/share takeover offer.
    • Carbonite has yet to turn a profit, but is on the right trajectory to one.
    • Carbonite's CEO will have to be the greatest to justify the current price for retail investors.
  • Amazon Performance Matching Google?
    Wed, Dec. 17 GOOGL, GOOG, AMZN 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Both companies lost money for investors in 2014 with dissimilar strategies.
    • Google faces limits imposed by government, Amazon faces limits imposed by cash flow.
    • Both will find their way around these limits in 2015 and are currently on sale.
  • VMware Emulates Red Hat Path With Cloud Foundry Foundation
    Tue, Dec. 16 VMW 5 Comments

    Summary

    • VMware has helped launch an independent foundation supporting the Cloud Foundry platform.
    • It hopes to emulate the success Red Hat found in supporting OpenStack.
    • Success will depend on bringing others into the fold.
  • Cheap Oil Not An Unalloyed Joy
    Tue, Dec. 16 OIL 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Cheap oil is destroying wealth across the oil patch.
    • Oil billionaires become millionaires and have to sell other shares.
    • This is a political event, which ends when politicians decide it ends.
  • Not Too Late To Get Into Storage Consolidation
    Tue, Dec. 16 EMC, FB, INTC 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Western Digital's Skyera purchase points the way to continuing consolidation.
    • The big storage companies are available at multiples in the teens.
    • Buy Seagate for yield, Western Digital for leadership or Micron for value.
  • I Was Wrong About Adobe
    Sat, Dec. 13 ADBE 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Adobe has a hit with its Creative Cloud.
    • Shantanu Narayen has proven himself a top notch executive.
    • I was wrong to dismiss the future of this Silicon Valley bellweather.
  • Apple Stock Becoming The Ultimate Safe Haven
    Sat, Dec. 13 AAPL 79 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple share gains increasingly mirror the major averages.
    • Apple has become a safe haven - safer than even the dollar - in times of volatility.
    • Apple gains will slow as the risk-on trade reappears, but looks smart when it's risk-off time.
  • Is The Turnaround Still On At Lululemon?
    Fri, Dec. 12 LULU 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Laurent Potdevin has shrunk but tightened operations at the yoga retailer.
    • Potdevin has been transparent on company problems and moved into new markets.
    • The company won't be a high flier but could be a takeover target.
  • Walgreen Set To Go Back To Being CVS
    Fri, Dec. 12 WAG 38 Comments

    Summary

    • CEO Greg Wasson isn't retiring, he was pushed out by Alliance Boots chair Stefano Pessina.
    • Makeovers of Walgreens stores may end as a result, with more focus on supply chains and operations.
    • Expect a tax inversion to boost the stock price.
  • Mobile Industry Profit Pain Has Just Begun
    Thu, Dec. 11 SFTBY 19 Comments

    Summary

    • The four big mobile carriers are playing a "great game" and price wars are just one part of it.
    • Expect a big merger next year as rivals compete for DISH spectrum.
    • SoftBank will be the long-term winner, but you'll have to wait for your profit.
  • YUM And McDonald's Have The Problem Domino's Solved
    Thu, Dec. 11 DPZ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Both of the largest fast food sellers have an image for factory food.
    • It is a problem that can be solved. Domino's solved it.
    • Play the hot hand of Domino's for now, but watch headlines carefully at YUM and MCD.
  • Could Sony Hack Turn Into Buying Opportunity?
    Wed, Dec. 10 SNE 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Sony now sells at a substantial discount to assets and sales.
    • Sony's movie "The Interview" will make money thanks to North Korea.
    • Sony can turn this into a big win for shareholders, at present values, without much trouble.
  • McDonald's Can Come Back
    Wed, Dec. 10 MCD 38 Comments

    Summary

    • McDonald's seems to know it's in trouble but its responses so far have been weak.
    • McDonald's needs to find ways to emulate Chipotle, a McDonald's spin-off.
    • Sell it short until Chipotle-like change becomes apparent, then buy with both hands.
  • Amazon Admits The Era Of 'Price Sells Cloud' Is Ending
    Tue, Dec. 9 AMZN 83 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon is now matching prices rather than leading prices down.
    • Company is focusing more on higher-end software and service offerings than base infrastructure.
    • Amazon may be about to start making a profit on cloud as smaller vendors have been shaken out.
  • What It Means When U.S. Economy Is Too Strong
    Mon, Dec. 8 CAJ, HMC, SAP 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Relative to its trading partners the U.S. is in great shape.
    • The cures that worked for our economy can work elsewhere.
    • When other countries take those cures, invest in them and profit.
  • Playing The Comcast-Time Warner Cable End Game
    Sat, Dec. 6 CMCSA, CMCSK, TWC 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Comcast is the best bet right now. It is what everyone else wants to be.
    • The trick is to vertically integrate, combining infrastructure with programming assets.
    • Merger approval will be the starting gun on another round of consolidation, focused on content.
  • Will Someone Take GlaxoSmithKline Out Of Its Misery?
    Fri, Dec. 5 GSK 39 Comments

    Summary

    • GlaxoSmithKline is cutting its research staff again, admitting its strategy of empowering scientists failed.
    • GSK's CEO is a scientist who has shown himself not to have the business instincts his job demands.
    • Investors can either wait for a takeover or take their losses.
  • NextEra Seeks To Prove Florida Regulators Wrong In Hawaii
    Fri, Dec. 5 NEE 17 Comments

    Summary

    • NextEra, based in brown energy Florida, has just bought Hawaii's electric utility.
    • The company has been buying green assets and re-selling the power for years.
    • Unlike NRG, which it somewhat resembles, NEE is profitable.
    • The question for shareholders is whether green energy can be made profitable under state regulation.
  • Why The Next Set Of Media Mergers Are About To Start
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Dec. 5 BABA, CBS, DIS 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Sumner Redstone is 91, putting both Viacom and CBS in play.
    • The only companies big enough to bid and profit have vertical integration, like Comcast.
    • Expect a huge premium.
  • Amazon Going Back On Sale
    Thu, Dec. 4 AMZN 95 Comments

    Summary

    • Moody's has downgraded its view on Amazon debt, sending the stock down.
    • Amazon bears see trouble on every side.
    • Amazon has the physical and computing infrastructure to weather the storm, and its mistakes.
  • Do Not Be Fooled By IBM Cloud Contract Announcements
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Dec. 4 IBM 67 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM is signing "baseball" contracts, using length to increase the apparent size of the deals.
    • These are "outsourcing" contracts, not real cloud deals. They are replacement revenue.
    • To grow IBM needs to create new markets, not serve its old markets for less.
  • Samsung Sale Puts Spotlight On The Buyer, Corning
    Wed, Dec. 3 GLW 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Corning shares have been on the comeback trail for two years.
    • The purchase of Samsung's fiber optics assets gives Corning more stability.
    • This is moving from a trading stock to an investing stock. Look for an entry point.
  • Both Extremes In The Oil Debate Are Wrong
    Wed, Dec. 3 GE, HAL, SLB 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Current oil prices aren't permanent, they are politically-driven.
    • Efficiency is the force pushing down on prices, not renewables.
    • Renewable costs are falling, and transforming the developing world. Their time will come here. Not yet.
  • Schlumberger Is The Last Haven In A Collapsing Oil Market
    Tue, Dec. 2 SLB 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Schlumberger may be the last company to fall below its January price today.
    • Oil producers need Schlumberger technology to increase and even maintain production.
    • Expect this stock to rise from the current oil war first, and to rise the highest, its power dramatically increased.
  • How High Can J.C. Penney Rise?
    Tue, Dec. 2 JCP 20 Comments

    Summary

    • J.C. Penney operations have pulled out of their dive.
    • The company has been stabilized under Mike Ullman and should turn profitable soon.
    • Incoming CEO Marvin Ellison is the nuts-and-bolts guy the company needs.
    • If JCP can make even a small profit at $10 billion in sales the stock is worth $5 billion, twice its current price.
  • Fighting The Bipolar Retailer Blues
    Tue, Dec. 2 AMZN, BBY, TGT Comment!

    Summary

    • Many retailers rose sharply in November but we dumped Monday like coal in a kid's stocking.
    • There is a difference between Black Friday shoppers and those who go later in the season.
    • Look for calm in the store storm. Take the gains fundamentals offer.
    • Macy's looks like a reasonable bet this holiday season.
  • HP Will Not Turn Around
    Sat, Nov. 29 HPQ 34 Comments

    Summary

    • PC sales grew in the third quarter, but other volumes were flat or down.
    • Bulls are betting on a split-up of the company to pay off.
    • There are better ways to make money in tech than financial engineering.