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Dana Blankenhorn  

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  • How Good Can Ford Get? [View article]
    Toyota ADRs currently carry a PE of 84, as against a going-forward of 9 for Ford (or 2.5, counting last quarter). I bought a Scion in 2004 and still love the car, but that price is too rich for me.
    Mar 7, 2012. 09:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Good Can Ford Get? [View article]
    This is neither a political story nor a story about GM. It's about Ford. Ford took no bailout money.

    But Ford did support the bailout. As did many foreign producers. Why? Because if the parts makers went under as GM and Chrysler went under those foreign nameplates would have had to close assembly plants all around the US, or dramatically raise prices because they would have to import more parts.

    There was no private capital available when the car companies came to Washington. Just as there was none when the banks came to Washington.
    Mar 7, 2012. 09:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Statins, Genomics, Patents, And Speculation [View article]
    There are tests for particles, like C-reactive proteins in the blood, and there are tests on genes, looking for susceptibility. As more genetic markers are found, we should be able to tell in youth that you have a likelihood of high c-reactive protein build-up later in life and start dealing with it right away. Or find out you don't have that, that you're susceptible to something else, and move preventive care into that direction. That's the "personalized medicine" of the coming decade.
    Mar 7, 2012. 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Still Spells Trouble To Me [View article]
    Costs keep coming down on alternative energy of all types, while costs keep rising for fossil fuels of all types. I expect crossover in 2016, two generations of solar gear hence. That's the way technology works, and you may feel free to disagree but I think I'll be taking your money after it happens.
    Mar 7, 2012. 05:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Still Spells Trouble To Me [View article]
    Well, those who ignored me and bought last time I wrote about CHK haven't lost money. But they haven't made any either. The only real loss has been the opportunity cost of that cash.

    I think one thing I owe it to y'all to do is try to find some companies that look like good buys in the E&P space.
    Mar 7, 2012. 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Still Spells Trouble To Me [View article]
    NatGas is tough to transport, and not as fungible as oil. But it is the reason why I think U.S. growth will continue to accelerate this year, even in the face of negative growth in Europe and slower growth in China.

    We have cost advantages.
    Mar 7, 2012. 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Cloud Bust [View article]
    Thanks for a long and thoughtful set of comments.

    My view is that cloud will evolve into something more like the Internet itself. Not right away. I think a lot of enterprises will be doing their own clouds first. I think there are serious questions about security, privacy, and service levels in the cloud. The enterprise software stack has yet to be truly replicated in the cloud.

    But it's clear, from the way the technology works, that at some point cost matters. And as these software hurdles are cleared (I think they're more likely to be cleared quickly through an open source process) cost will become a watchword, along with reliability and redundancy.
    Mar 7, 2012. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patent Peace In Our Time For Apple And Google? [View article]
    It's not just the $15/Android device that's important, but the end of uncertainty overhanging the whole tech sector as a result of this patent war.

    We need innovation, and we need a patent system that doesn't slow it down. If a peace agreement shows that system working, that's positive.
    Mar 7, 2012. 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Still Spells Trouble To Me [View article]
    NatGas at $2.50 mbtu is tough to beat for heating. But Miasole says they can get their solar panel costs down to 80 cents/watt by year-end, and the CHK bulls expect that natgas price to be going up this year, not down.
    Mar 7, 2012. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Still Spells Trouble To Me [View article]
    flour. The more flour, the more cakie. The less flour, the more it's like candy.
    Mar 7, 2012. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Iranian Politics Will Ultimately Knock Down Oil Prices [View article]
    Iran doesn't have the economic or military might right now to do what Israel fears. They may be doing the same thing with Iran we did with Iraq.

    I think the President is trying to prevent that, and recent developments indicate he has a good chance of succeeding. Among those developments is the election of a new parliament that is more internally-focused than the one that preceded it.
    Mar 7, 2012. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Still Spells Trouble To Me [View article]
    That's great. Markets are made by disagreement. When we're all bullish or all bearish -- that's the time to worry.
    Mar 7, 2012. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Iranian Politics Will Ultimately Knock Down Oil Prices [View article]
    I can't tell you why the mainstream media hasn't reported what I've been finding. I won't speculate. But from what I've seen the Mullahs who won the election do not agree with their President (Ach I Need A New Job) on pursuing a nuclear option.

    My guess is Israeli analysts don't believe a word any Mullah says and is suspicious of any action a Mullah takes.
    Mar 7, 2012. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Still Spells Trouble To Me [View article]
    I don't think it's a Ponzi scheme at all. I just think McClendon is running things pretty close to the edge, and that more conservative business practices might produce a better return to investors.
    Mar 7, 2012. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Turns To Gold, Rife With Speculation [View article]
    Just finished "Reverse of the Medal" today. "Letter or Marque" is next. Sounds like you are on or just finished "Treason's Harbor."

    Oh, the movie "Master and Commander" is sort of a pastiche. It's not based on any of the actual books.
    Mar 7, 2012. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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