Seeking Alpha

Dane Bowler

 
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  • Farmland Partners: Maintaining A $16.25 Price Target (~50% Upside)
     • Mon, Aug. 18 FPI 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Farmland Partners is a farmland REIT that has been beat up in the market.
    • A slew of somewhat misguided concerns have adversely affected its market price.
    • Fundamental strength and strong capital deployment are poised to break these concerns and bring its price closer to fundamental value.
  • Fiduciary Discipline At Hersha Hospitality Sets Them Apart
     • Fri, Aug. 15 H, SHO, HT 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Hotels are performing well in 2014, with expectations to stay strong for many years.
    • Hersha has performed a series of accretive acquisitions and dispositions that set them apart from competition.
    • HT remains cheap on an NAV and P/FFO basis, especially considering its quality.
  • Unrecognized Quality Presents 48% Upside At Brixmor Properties
     • Mon, Aug. 11 BX, BRX 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Brixmor is a grocery anchored shopping center REIT that recently came public.
    • At current prices it is deeply undervalued relative to its quality.
    • We anticipate that internal growth, careful strategy, dissipation of misconceptions and a reduced cost of capital will create up to 48% upside.
  • The Ease Of REIT Conversion Portends Danger For REITs
    Tue, Aug. 5 AMT, CBSO, CORR 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Companies with substantial property portfolios are finding ways to take advantage of REIT tax law.
    • As conversions become more frequent, REITs will be at risk of losing acquisition pipelines and could face increased reform pressure.
    • Investors need to know how to position themselves to avoid these risks while maintaining exposure to the upside of REITs.
  • Preferred Apartment Communities Nearly Doubles Its Assets Overnight
     • Wed, Jul. 30 APTS 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Preferred Apartment Communities just announced a large acquisition.
    • Our analysis suggests that it could be accretive to the bottom line.
    • APTS could have 30% upside if the financing is well executed.
  • Underreaction To Recent News Makes Arbor Realty An Opportunity
     • Wed, Jul. 23 ABR 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Arbor Realty announced the termination of a $58mm liability.
    • The market response to the favorable news was underwhelming.
    • Arbor Realty is opportunistic, trading at a deep discount to fundamental value.
  • An 8.6% Yielding REIT Preferred With Upside From Pareto Superior Pricing
    Tue, Jul. 22 RSO 21 Comments

    Summary

    • RSO-B has an 8.6% yield and trades at a meaningful discount to par.
    • RSO-B is cheaper and higher yielding than RSO-A with the same risk.
    • A return to normalized pricing could provide material outperformance.
  • Sotherly Hotels Still Has Room To Run
       • Fri, Jul. 18 AHT, BEE, INN 5 Comments

    Summary

    • SOHO has tripled over the past 3 years but remains cheap.
    • Strong fundamentals justify a substantially higher trading multiple.
    • We see SOHO as having 65% upside as it continues to grow FFO/share.
  • A Behavioral Overreaction Makes Select Income Realty An Opportunity
       • Fri, Jul. 11 EQC, GOV, SIR 12 Comments

    Summary

    • CommonWealth sold its Select Income Shares to Government Properties.
    • The exchange of shares had no fundamental impact on SIR yet its market price dropped ~4%.
    • SIR is opportunistically priced for investors who wish to capture the reversal of the overreaction.
  • RAIT Financial's Asset Management Capabilities Could Unlock Material Value
       • Wed, Jul. 9 IRT, RAS 20 Comments

    Summary

    • RAIT Financial's asset management branch is undervalued by the market.
    • While presently small, it has the potential to grow substantially as Independence Realty Trust grows.
    • If IRT can continue to grow, RAS's asset management contract with them could be worth as much as $2.55/share.
  • An Office And Industrial REIT Positioned To Deliver Alpha - Chambers Street Properties
       • Wed, Jul. 9 AMZN, NRF, STAG 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Chambers Street Properties trades at a substantial discount to its intrinsic value.
    • It provides exposure to the fundamentally desirable office and industrial REIT sectors at a cheaper price than is otherwise available.
    • Strong properties and tenants along with an oversized dividend should result in extra returns for CSG investors as its multiple expands.
  • Farmland Is The Next Big Thing In REITs
       • Sun, Jun. 29 LAND, FPI 121 Comments

    Summary

    • Farmland Partners has become cheap on exaggerated fears of conflicted interest.
    • An accretive acquisition pipeline along with internal rental rate growth should catalyze returns.
    • Farmland Partners should trade at a high resting FFO multiple due to the characteristics of its underlying assets.
  • 3 Warnings For Those Seeking Demand Growth Stories
    Tue, Jun. 17 CAP, WFM, VTR 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Demand growth trends can really move stocks but are often dangerous.
    • Recent history has given us excellent examples of this danger.
    • Investors need to know what to look for to differentiate the winners from the traps.
  • Lexington Realty Trust Is Deeply Undervalued With 30% Upside Potential Within A Year
       • Sat, May. 31 LXP 33 Comments

    Summary

    • At 10X FFO, LXP is severely undervalued.
    • A strong asset portfolio and investment pipeline could fuel FFO/share growth.
    • Annual dividend raises will fuel investor interest and potentially capital appreciation.
  • Macro Scale REIT Valuation: Is The Sector Becoming Too Expensive?
    Wed, May. 28 ROOF 7 Comments

    Summary

    • REITs have performed well in 2014, leading many to believe they are too expensive.
    • Both price and P/FFO are within normal historical ranges for REITs and seem appropriate for fundamentals.
    • Opportunity remains within certain subsets of REITs: small cap and value.
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Rapid Growth At A Cheap Price
       • Fri, May. 23 ARCP 131 Comments

    Summary

    • Enormous transaction volume has left shareholders confused and largely on the sidelines.
    • Analysis reveals these transactions to be fundamentally accretive.
    • Equity issuance associated with the transactions dropped market price to highly opportunistic levels.
  • A Prominent Sector Headwind Stifles The Growth Of Sabra Healthcare
       • Sat, May. 17 HCT, SBRA 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Sabra's rapid growth rate is slowing.
    • Non-traded REIT money is compressing acquisition cap rates.
    • Compressed spreads limit the volume of accretive growth available to Sabra.
  • Armada Hoffler: Developing A Path To Outperformance
       • Wed, Mar. 19 AHH 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Armada Hoffler is presently undervalued consequent to a variety of temporary negative catalysts. As these catalysts expire, we expect the FFO multiple to improve.
    • It is positioned to grow FFO/share through a large (relative to its market cap) pipeline of accretive development opportunities.
    • The combination of FFO/share growth with FFO multiple expansion could generate material capital gains.
  • Unanticipated Growth May Catalyze Independence Realty Trust's Outperformance
       • Wed, Jan. 22 RAS, IRT 14 Comments
  • An Accretive Acquisition Makes CorEnergy A Near-Term Buy Opportunity
       • Fri, Jan. 17 ARCX, CORR 9 Comments
  • Deep Value And Near-Term Catalysts Position Winthrop For Outperformance
       • Fri, Jan. 17 FUR 15 Comments
  • My 2014 Diversified REIT Portfolio Designed For Outperformance
    Tue, Jan. 7 AHP, AHT, ARCP 35 Comments
  • REIT Tax Loss Selling Creates Opportunity
    Dec. 29, 2013 ACC, ARCP, CBL 40 Comments
  • The Impending Dividend Cut Makes Gladstone Land A Prime Short Opportunity
       • Dec. 27, 2013 GOOD, LAND 32 Comments
  • Ventas: Get Blue Chip Quality Without Paying For It
       • Dec. 3, 2013 VTR 19 Comments
  • Ashford Hospitality Presents A Potential 40% Upside Catalyzed By Impending Spin-Off
       • Nov. 12, 2013 AHT 25 Comments
  • CBL & Associates Is Poised To Profit On J.C. Penney's Potential Demise
       • Oct. 15, 2013 GGP, JCP, CBL 27 Comments
  • A Puzzling 15mm Share Issuance Sends Summit Hotels Plunging
       • Sep. 13, 2013 INN 8 Comments
  • Weyerhaeuser Is Irrationally Cheap With Powerful Catalysts
       • Aug. 20, 2013 PCH, PCL, RYN 34 Comments
  • 8%-Plus Yielding REIT Preferreds Part 2: The Best Of The Best
    Aug. 15, 2013 ABR, ARCP, BPO 13 Comments
  • 8%+ Yielding REIT Preferreds: The Best Of The Best - Part 1
    Aug. 13, 2013 ABR, NRF, RAS 69 Comments
  • Excessive G&A: Implications And Opportunity For One Liberty Properties
       • Aug. 10, 2013 GOOD, ARCP, OLP 8 Comments