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Dane Bowler

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  • My Diversified REIT Portfolio Designed For Outperformance In The Second Half Of 2013 [View article]
    Steve,

    While those are good companies, I find their market prices far too high
    Jul 3 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Superb Fundamentals Portend 100% Upside For Sotherly Hotels [View article]
    Greg,

    Excellent question. While many REITs ignore the cost of maintenance capex it is so substantial for hotel REITs that they include it. Thus, the AFFO calculations already include the sizable capex expenditure. This is not written off like the rest of depreciation.

    I hope this answers your question and thanks for reading.
    Jul 3 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Diversified REIT Portfolio Designed For Outperformance In The Second Half Of 2013 [View article]
    bz14,

    While I do not directly state the changes, except for these quarterly reports, I tend to write articles about most of the stocks I buy. Thus, it is possible to infer most of the changes.
    Jul 3 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Fundamentals And Deep Value Make Associated Estates A Buy [View article]
    Beacon,

    Well, AEC has a fairly sizable debt coming due, but it has already taken care of it with an equity offering. Otherwise, AEC has rather low leverage and should have no trouble with the rest of its maturities.

    I hope this answers your question and thanks for furthering the discussion
    Jul 2 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Diversified REIT Portfolio Designed For Outperformance In The Second Half Of 2013 [View article]
    alschroed,

    I see no logic to asset allocation strategies. REITs are in themselves a diversified asset class. Why sacrifice optimal selection for a set of arbitrary constraints?
    Jul 2 09:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Diversified REIT Portfolio Designed For Outperformance In The Second Half Of 2013 [View article]
    complete dividend,

    Unfortunately Canadian REITs are outside my scope of expertise so I have very little information that would be of use to you.

    Thanks for reading
    Jul 2 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Fundamentals And Deep Value Make Associated Estates A Buy [View article]
    J Mintzmyer

    I'll attempt to answer your questions with the same numbers for clarity.

    1) In terms of the growth, I'd say 25% is quite substantial. This is not a start-up, but rather a fully established and proven company. AEC tends to be very conservative on leverage.

    2) The LA units are pricey, but that is because they are on Wilshire Blvd. This is a very wealthy area and I expect the rents to be reflective of this. Until AEC provides more numbers, I will be unable to give a better estimate.

    3) In terms of dividend growth, AEC is well-positioned to be able to raise it substantially. They do, however, like to maintain a very conservative payout ratio.

    As the developments get closer to completion, I imagine that further information will be released on the profitability.
    Jul 2 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Diversified REIT Portfolio Designed For Outperformance In The Second Half Of 2013 [View article]
    Bruce,

    While I do believe that REITs are strong in general, the reason I invest in REITs is that it is the area in which I am most knowledgeable. If I were to extend my holdings beyond my range of expertise, I would lose my advantage.

    The main point I want to make, however, is not about REITs. It is about stock selection. The outperformance was not consequent to it being a REIT based portfolio, but rather due to selecting the best of the REITs.

    Thanks for furthering the discussion.

    Jul 2 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Diversified REIT Portfolio Designed For Outperformance In The Second Half Of 2013 [View article]
    Adam,

    The Ashford and Whitestone sales were consequent to the strong appreciation of the stocks. As these stocks became closer to fully valued, I felt other opportunities were more immediate. I do, however, still like both companies and will consider getting back in.

    Ashford in particular has gotten cheap with all the market confusion brought about by the proposed split.
    Jul 2 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Fundamentals And Deep Value Make Associated Estates A Buy [View article]
    J Mintzmyer,

    Thank you for a spot on question.

    I believe that the primary aspects that are scaring off potential investors and consequently keeping the price low are:

    Very small size

    Seemingly low cap rate acquisitions

    In the past AEC has made some acquisitions at cap rates as low as 5%. This appears bad and management took alot of flak for it. However, behind the scenes, AEC tends to get far more value out of these acquisitions with superior property level management.

    I guess it could be summed up as a lack of understanding. That being said, I believe that AEC is doing a great job of communicating with shareholders and it is only a matter of time before they achieve more respect in the market.


    I hope this helps to clarify the issue and thank you for furthering the discussion.
    Jul 2 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geo Group: A Strong Company In A Weak Sector [View article]
    HighOak,

    Well if you get time to point out the errors, I would happy to correct them.
    Jun 28 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geo Group: A Strong Company In A Weak Sector [View article]
    Russell,

    I should be clear that I intentionally refrain from making recommendations. My goal instead is to provide analysis that helps investors make their own decisions. That being said, one of the property REITs I am most positive on is contained in the linked article
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 28 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misunderstood And Underpriced: NorthStar Realty Finance Is Poised For Outperformance [View article]
    long tail,

    Earnings does not encapsulate its actual profit. As an equity REIT, the more accurate measure is FFO or perhaps CAD.

    I provided NRF's implied cap-rate in the article when I stated its 2014 P/FFO of 7. as implied cap-rate is the inverse of trading multiple, NRF's implied cap rate is around 14%.

    If we were to do the calculations based on its projected CAD, the implied cap rate would be even higher.

    I hope this helps clarify any discrepancies, and thank you for providing further evidence of how misunderstood NRF is, considering even Bloomberg is reporting from the wrong angle.
    Jun 26 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misunderstood And Underpriced: NorthStar Realty Finance Is Poised For Outperformance [View article]
    Akaralph,

    NRF's dividend is very well covered. Its current CAD payout ratio is 80%, but it will be even lower once the acquisitions kick in. Its CAD is far higher than its net investment income as its business is quite diverse.
    Jun 26 11:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misunderstood And Underpriced: NorthStar Realty Finance Is Poised For Outperformance [View article]
    Russell,

    NRF leases out the pad rental sites. It is also an option to sell the homes on the sites, but the primary revenue driver is the leasing of the sites.

    This is a fairly well established industry that has been quite profitable. Perhaps check out Sun Communities (SUI) for more info as manufactured homes is the staple of its business.

    I hope this helps and thanks for commenting
    Jun 26 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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