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Dane Bowler

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  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    Mike,

    It takes much more than issuing slightly above book to be accretive. The new capital would have to generate sufficient income to increase earnings on a per/share basis. In other words, it would have to be both leveraged and invested at rates equal or superior to its former capital. Given the current environment I don't see it as likely.
    Mar 17 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucrative Prospects In Shipping Containers [View article]
    J stack,

    Thank you for the feedback,
    Mar 17 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucrative Prospects In Shipping Containers [View article]
    berloe,

    Excellent question, but unfortunately I have no answer for you. In the shipping industry I have only researched the container lessors. The rest of shipping is outside my scope of expertise.
    Mar 17 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    hgerring,

    Thank you for commenting,

    While you seem to disagree with me on AGNC, I'm glad to see you have a balanced and reasonable perspective
    Mar 16 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Designing A 2013 Portfolio For An Uncertain Market [View article]
    well, back in January I presented my entire portfolio in an article

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The market has changed significantly since the writing so many of these stocks are no longer values, but it may provide a baseline idea to answer your questions above.
    Mar 16 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    richjoy,

    I have not provided a timeframe and this was intentional.

    What I meant by saying that the dividend is not sustainable is that they do not have sufficient earnings to pay for it.

    They MIGHT choose to pay beyond their earnings to continue the dividend and I suspect they could do this for a few quarters. The longer they keep the dividend beyond the sustainable amount the more their liquid resources would be depleted.

    The current magnitude of distribution is, by my calculations, not sustainable in the long-run such that it will either be reduced or continued at the detriment of company resources. In either case, I would not want to own the stock.

    I hope this helps to clarify what I meant.
    Mar 16 08:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Designing A 2013 Portfolio For An Uncertain Market [View article]
    galicianova,

    I'll address your concerns in the numbers you presented them

    1) Yes I do have a high concentration in REITs. There is an incredible amount of diversification among REITs. In terms of the MLPs, CORR has a small MLP portfolio and they own similar properties to MLPs.

    2) The above list is not a complete portfolio. It is the stocks that I feel have a unique resistance to downside while maintaining full growth potential.

    3) Such an ETF would require owning the bad with the good. I prefer to diversify exclusively among the exceptional.

    4) Cash was addressed in the article. It is absolutely a valid way to survive a downturn, but as you so aptly said "in sunny days you lag the market".

    I hope this helps to clarify and thanks for furthering the discussion.
    Mar 16 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    6880771,

    WOW! In this entire stream of over 100 comments this has to be the most ignorant and belligerent. You say

    "C'mon Dane, are you really so afraid of commenting on any of the many many people who have shown you to be an obvious shorter? "

    How can people have shown me to be a shorter when I AM NOT SHORT. I diligently disclose my position in EVERY stock I have ever written about.

    Do you realize you are accusing me of breaking the law?

    It is a shame to see you bring such unprofessional idiocy to SeekingAlpha discussions which are otherwise very enlightening.
    Mar 16 04:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    Panamerican,

    thanks for reading and commenting
    Mar 16 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    allstreets,

    Well in regard to taxation, whether you take the gains now or later it will result in taxation. It is better to pay the taxes then to lose some of the gain and still pay taxes on the remaining capital gain. The only way this would change is if it actually affects the rate of taxation. For example delaying to get to long-term capital gains rate.
    Mar 16 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    AFAHM,

    it is perhaps too simple. I think the estimates are a good starting point for the average expectations but given the uncertainty of all the factors that go into their earnings the actual number could deviate significantly in either direction.

    As for TWO, it is not a stock I follow closely. As such my opinion on it would not be of much value.

    Thanks, and good luck
    Mar 16 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    6880771,

    Reread the passage you think I was wrong in more closely. I am referring to when interest rates drop. Thus the 4% loans are more likely to be prepayed when the prevailing rate drops to say 2.5%.
    Mar 16 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    shawn,

    Thank you for sharing your thoughts, I too enjoy the stream of comments from knowledgeable readers.
    Mar 15 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    Dave,

    I presented the logic for both scenarios in the article. When interest rates go up it drops due to duration effect and when interest rates go down its value drops due to the prepayment effect.

    I agree that it seems strange upon first glance. I believe the term for such a phenomena is negative convexity.
    Mar 15 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    Bryce,

    Fair enough, the order in which these comments comes in is rather confusing.
    Mar 15 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
552 Comments
310 Likes