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Dane Bowler

 
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  • American Capital Agency: Negative Catalysts Portend A Dividend Cut [View article]
    David White,

    You said the following

    "Unfortunately it contains many errors which make its conclusions suspect. Perhaps the most glaring is that it presupposes a continued downtrend in mortgage rates. If you look at the US Treasury long bond yield"


    Where did I say mortgage rates will continue to go down??? You are saying I was wrong about something I never said. All discourse relating to future rates was phrased as a conditional. I do not know where rates will go and to be honest I don't think anyone does. We can, however, analyze them in the conditional context.

    You also suggest that there are many other errors. Please point them out SPECIFICALLY and without putting words in my mouth so I can correct them.

    Criticism of my work is always welcome, but please do it in a professional and HONEST way.
    Mar 15 05:02 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Office And Industrial REIT Positioned To Deliver Alpha - Chambers Street Properties [View article]
    Toneguru,

    I think the data you looked at might be for general stocks and not applicable to REITs.

    CSG's debt load is moderately high but well within the normal range for REITs. Their EBITDA debt coverage is 3.4X which is also within the normal range and not particularly concerning.

    P/E ratio for REITs is almost always going to be high because REITs don't always generate earnings due to high depreciation at an accounting level. The REIT equivalent metric is P/FFO and in this regard CSG is very low.

    In terms of the dividend payout ratio, CSG pays out about 82% of FFO which is quite sustainable given the contractual nature of its revenues.

    I hope this helps to clarify and thank you for reading
    Jul 9 11:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Diversified REIT Portfolio Designed For Outperformance In The Second Half Of 2013 [View article]
    alschroed,

    I see no logic to asset allocation strategies. REITs are in themselves a diversified asset class. Why sacrifice optimal selection for a set of arbitrary constraints?
    Jul 2 09:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 6 Companies Cannot Support Their Dividends [View article]
    Well I should clarify,

    You may be knowledgable on CapLease, but this article did not demonstrate sufficient knowledge to make such a bold claim.

    I do apologize for my callous wording in the first comment
    Jun 13 02:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Industrial REITs Part 3: Lexington Realty Trust [View article]
    Brad,

    I used to own some ADC, but since the huge run-up I feel it is no longer a value. ARCP is also approaching full valuation. In my opinion, the triple-net opportunities going forward lie in LXP and LSE.
    Apr 11 10:14 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Office And Industrial REIT Positioned To Deliver Alpha - Chambers Street Properties [View article]
    Brad,

    Thanks for the opportunity to clarify that statement. My guess would be that CSG's price has been held down by an outflow of investors who owned it before it was listed. Many of these investors lost money with CSG so they are likely spreading negative sentiment in addition to selling their shares. I do believe, however, that the pace of outflow is slowing as CSG has been public for a while now so the demand for shares can now surpass the supply. With these more transitory trading elements beginning to fade, CSG should trade closer to its fundamental value.

    In terms of the office exposure, I echo your thoughts that it is not as strong as their industrial portfolio, but office REITs still trade at an average of 14.6X forward FFO. CSG's properties are arguably superior to some of their competitors so they really shouldn't be so discounted.

    Thanks for reading,
    Dane
    Jul 9 10:04 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Sell-Off Is Unjustified: Here Is How To Take Advantage [View article]
    pompano,

    REIT assets may be fixed income, but REITs are not. growing cashflows are by definition not fixed.
    Jul 8 02:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misunderstood And Underpriced: NorthStar Realty Finance Is Poised For Outperformance [View article]
    Akaralph,

    NRF's dividend is very well covered. Its current CAD payout ratio is 80%, but it will be even lower once the acquisitions kick in. Its CAD is far higher than its net investment income as its business is quite diverse.
    Jun 26 11:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sustainable And Growing 8% Yield Is Driving NorthStar Realty Finance's Outperformance [View article]
    Holthusen,

    I have read that article and strongly disagree with it. He seems to be suggesting that the CDO repurchase at pennies on the dollar which has been massively accretive to shareholders was somehow underhanded or unethical. In my opinion, the primary job of public companies is to make money for their shareholders so opportunistic deals are very ethical.

    He also suggests that NRF has "aggressive accounting" and applies negative and perhaps unethical connotations.

    This too is wrong. The accounting used by NRF is standard and accurate. It is simply difficult to understand. NRF is a very complex company and as such necessarily has difficult accounting.

    Essentially what I got out of his article was that he was confusing the difficulty of understanding NRF with it being a bad investment. I have no authority to state that he was wrong, this is merely my opinion.
    May 22 12:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sustainable And Growing 8% Yield Is Driving NorthStar Realty Finance's Outperformance [View article]
    Texas,

    That is a fair question. I believe much of it has to do with the timing of acquisitions and money raising efforts. While the costs are absorbed upfront, (therefore directly affecting the Q1 earnings) the profits from the acquisitions did not fully kick in for the first quarter. Therefore first quarter earnings reflected less revenue than should be reflected going forward.

    I hope this helps to clarify and thank you for providing me the opportunity to clear this up.
    May 22 11:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raising A Yellow Flag Over REIT Valuation [View article]
    Nice article Adam, and thank you for the professionalism in accurate quoting and linking.
    May 21 04:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Industrial REITs Part 3: Lexington Realty Trust [View article]
    smurf,

    well the rule is that REITs have to pay out 90% of TAXABLE income. For most REITs this is a very small or negative number so I'm fairly confident LXP's dividend is legally sufficient. I tend to work more with FFO for REITs as this is a better measure of their true cashflows.
    Apr 11 10:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: David Acquires Goliath [View article]
    NTRanalyst,

    You suggest that I am wrong for using the MFFO figure as it does not include the most recent acquisitions. Did you read my article???? I ask because I addressed that specific point. Please read the quote below that was in the article.

    "There is another piece to factor in. CCPT3 had been making major acquisitions in 2012, so the nine month MFFO does not fully reflect its pro-rata earnings"

    Before flaming an author, at least read his article.
    Mar 25 09:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pursuit Of Mediocrity - Fallacy Of Dollar Cost Averaging And The Abuse Of Indexing [View article]
    Owen,

    You make a valid point about typical timings. Thanks for continuing the discussion
    Jan 19 02:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Healthcare REITs Are Far Safer Than You Would Think [View article]
    zver11,

    You are bringing up some very interesting points for discussion. I'm just not quite sure what angle you are coming from, so it is difficult for me to address them.

    1) Like I said in the article, it really is an unknown. It appears your view of our government is a bit more pessimistic than mine, but there may be something to it.

    2) I agree that in some cases the contract will be terminated and the building returned to the REIT, but I have to disagree on the cascade you refer to. Such things may occur in other sectors, but for healthcare, the building rent is such a small portion of expenditure that relocation of operations would rarely be worth a slight decrease in rent. For example, rental expenses for Sun Healthcare Group were only $36.6mm in the third quarter compared to revenue of $460.5mm. The relatively low cost of rent and relatively high cost of relocation favors homeostatic contractual conditions.

    3) "new investment drops, occupancy climbs" Please clarify what you mean by this. New investment in what? and occupancy of what? As far as I know, the healthcare REITs are mostly 100% occupied already as the entire buildings are obtained and rented simultaneously through sale-leaseback transactions.

    thank you for furthering the discourse.
    Nov 19 10:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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