Not everything that glitters is gold: the increasing leverage as the CHTT at a 3.0 debt/equity, way above the industry norm. Moreover, intangibles account for 75%+ of CHTT's total assets, a relatively high number and worth doing more due diligence on.
When serial acquirers wake up to realize the value of the firms they bought isn't what they thought it would be, investors could be left holding the bag if a major writeoff hits EPS.
JNJ makes a decent comp -- JNJ's intangibles (inc. good will) to total asset ratio is much lower, coming in at 38% -- that is about half of CHTT.....
The CHTT Q was great, the chart is solid, but CHTT isn't the best idea on the block.
Force Protection Breaks Out: Put This Stock on Your Watch List [View article]
get into SPAR now, there is another big contract on the way, you will have to trust me on this one. I raised my price target from 32 to 35 and today to $40.
Anatomy of a Trade: Eight Reasons Why Palm Was a 'Table Pounding Buy' [View article]
Thomas B writes:
>
We didn't. We invested it last month, when our Mar 17.5 calls skyrocketed 500%, Thomas. In case you missed the title, this article was a REVIEW of a successfully executed trade, not an endorsement to get into Palm shares today.
Whole Foods: Love the Company, Avoiding the Stock [View article]
3 quick observations:
1) WFMI's gargantuan brand equity (when people think of $14 mozzarella, they think of WholeFoods) isn't listed on the balance sheet, obviously. One should not discount that, or the fact that although there are some people who rather get their organic goods @ Target, WFMI's core customer is for the most part price inelastic.
2) The founder is still CEO of the firm & doesn't pay himself much ($1 annual salary): most of his compensation is in stock, so it is John Mackey's best interest to see WFMI climb out of its its dark hole. The extent to which the firm achieves returns in excess of its WACC factors heavily in determining incentive compensation, need I remind you....
3) From a chartist's perspective, it doesn't get better than this. WFMI in the mid 40s is @ a 4Y bottom. If you believe in management, and WFMI survives, you'd be buying WFMI @ a really attractive price.
$75M in cash and no debt: maybe SWIM will be acquired itself! 8% of float is short, probably for the reasons listed above. Short squeeze, clean balance sheet, robust run rate: SWIM actually goes higher. look @ the open interest in the option chains for SWIM: April & May 15 call volume is > put activity.
TIN Mar 60 calls for $.10 and $.15 had a very busy Valentines Day & the stock has been climbing steadily higher...watch TIN closely -- it's the next one to go, acoording to our sources down on the floor.
Understanding and Evaluating Hedge Funds [View article]
It will be harder for them to generate abnormal returns ("alpha") going forward as the number of operating hedge funds increases. Simply stated, there is too uch money chasing too FEW good ideas. The one consolation is that the hedge fund arena is a real Darwinian ecosystem and natural selection will weed out the losers and leave the "top guns" standing.
Studies empirically demonstrate that the longer a hedge fund stays in business, the better its risk/reward profile looks (Sharpe Ratios, for example, which we deem the best measure of risk-adjusted performance for hedge funds, should climb higher the longer a fund is in business). If a firm is sticking around and gathering assets, but taking increasing risk to justify its positive alpha, then we predict that fund could be one or 2 steps away from being the next Amaranth.
Pantry, Inc.: SAC Capital Discloses 5.3% Stake [View article]
They are also buying into PTMK, PSUN, BBW, and most recently, PALM. PALM looks like an interesting bet b/c chart-wise, it looks like PALM has bottomed after coming off a head and shoulders. RIMM, we think, is now a short term buy, too, since it found support and has crossed back above key moving averages.
Deja Vu?: Investors, Beware of Mamma.com's Soaring Stock [View article]
The surge was rumors of a BIDU buyout. IACI, GOOG, and even MSFT entered the rumor mill. It was the coupling of intensive rumors with a new vid platform that sent shares higher. The rise was also compounded by a large amt of shares that are short, as well as an easy-to-move float.
The volume during MAMAs short lived meteoric rise was the most interesting facet, though: it looked like the total float was being traded 3-4x a day -- this is simply a sign of churn, or worse, manipulators "painting the tape," which is when volume is artificially produced (2 parties buy and sell shares with each other all day) so that certain players can get out and sell their shares to uninformed rookies who think "something is really going on." The more astute day trader will recognize what is going on, jump on board for 1/2 a day, and get out with a 23% gain prior to the bell..the loser, of course, holds overnight, only to watch his massive gain evaporate in the pre-market hrs...
It's a permutation of the Greater Fool Theory except in this scene, funds are pulling all the marionette strings...
Chattem, Inc.: Familiar Brands, Outstanding ROE [View article]
When serial acquirers wake up to realize the value of the firms they bought isn't what they thought it would be, investors could be left holding the bag if a major writeoff hits EPS.
JNJ makes a decent comp -- JNJ's intangibles (inc. good will) to total asset ratio is much lower, coming in at 38% -- that is about half of CHTT.....
The CHTT Q was great, the chart is solid, but CHTT isn't the best idea on the block.
Force Protection Breaks Out: Put This Stock on Your Watch List [View article]
Force Protection Breaks Out: Put This Stock on Your Watch List [View article]
SPAR essentially makes the undebelly for all those truck orders flowing into FRPTs coffers.
SPAR is interesting b/c it has also enjoyed a short squeeze & Cramer seems to favor it....I think SPAR could hit $1B market cap in
Anatomy of a Trade: Eight Reasons Why Palm Was a 'Table Pounding Buy' [View article]
>
We didn't. We invested it last month, when our Mar 17.5 calls skyrocketed 500%, Thomas. In case you missed the title, this article was a REVIEW of a successfully executed trade, not an endorsement to get into Palm shares today.
Thanks,
DAJ
The Short Case on Vonage: Why No Price is Cheap Enough [View article]
Dismissing Motorola As Palm Acquirer, Following Warning [View article]
let's see what Palm has for us @ 4pm....
Whole Foods: Love the Company, Avoiding the Stock [View article]
1) WFMI's gargantuan brand equity (when people think of $14 mozzarella, they think of WholeFoods) isn't listed on the balance sheet, obviously. One should not discount that, or the fact that although there are some people who rather get their organic goods @ Target, WFMI's core customer is for the most part price inelastic.
2) The founder is still CEO of the firm & doesn't pay himself much ($1 annual salary): most of his compensation is in stock, so it is John Mackey's best interest to see WFMI climb out of its its dark hole. The extent to which the firm achieves returns in excess of its WACC factors heavily in determining incentive compensation, need I remind you....
3) From a chartist's perspective, it doesn't get better than this. WFMI in the mid 40s is @ a 4Y bottom. If you believe in management, and WFMI survives, you'd be buying WFMI @ a really attractive price.
INVESTools: Swim And Sink [View article]
Palm: Sale Seems Unlikely [View article]
Icahn Management: Notable 13F Changes [View article]
Why Is A Major NYC Hedge Fund Loading Up on Palm Shares? [View article]
DJ | KELLEY SCHOOL MBA PROGRAM | KELLEY ANALYTICS |
Understanding and Evaluating Hedge Funds [View article]
Studies empirically demonstrate that the longer a hedge fund stays in business, the better its risk/reward profile looks (Sharpe Ratios, for example, which we deem the best measure of risk-adjusted performance for hedge funds, should climb higher the longer a fund is in business). If a firm is sticking around and gathering assets, but taking increasing risk to justify its positive alpha, then we predict that fund could be one or 2 steps away from being the next Amaranth.
Caveat emptor, indeed.
DJ/The Kelley School
Pantry, Inc.: SAC Capital Discloses 5.3% Stake [View article]
DJ
Kelley School of Business
Hedge Fund Holdings in 3Q06 [View article]
-DJ
Kelley School of Business
Deja Vu?: Investors, Beware of Mamma.com's Soaring Stock [View article]
The volume during MAMAs short lived meteoric rise was the most interesting facet, though: it looked like the total float was being traded 3-4x a day -- this is simply a sign of churn, or worse, manipulators "painting the tape," which is when volume is artificially produced (2 parties buy and sell shares with each other all day) so that certain players can get out and sell their shares to uninformed rookies who think "something is really going on." The more astute day trader will recognize what is going on, jump on board for 1/2 a day, and get out with a 23% gain prior to the bell..the loser, of course, holds overnight, only to watch his massive gain evaporate in the pre-market hrs...
It's a permutation of the Greater Fool Theory except in this scene, funds are pulling all the marionette strings...
DJ
Kelley School of Business