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Daniel B. Ravicher

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  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    You're absolutely right, I didn't see the witnesses testify in person, but this is, in my opinion, not necessary. I care more about the story being told, rather than how dramatic or emotional it's being told. Jurors tend to care about the facts than anyone crying or screaming on the stand, which doesn't happen in patent cases anyways. This isn't Perry Mason. But, again, different people have different opinions. I've put my name with my opinion and welcome others to do the same.
    Nov 1 05:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    If the patents are held invalid, they're dead. If they're held non-infringed, everyone else can copy what Google does and, thus, avoid them. Either way, the future value of the patents would be substantially, if not literally, nullified.
    Nov 1 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    I'm shocked to hear you say that a 100M expectation was already the market consensus, but then wonder why so many people have responded that I'm an idiot and don't know what I'm talking about. I also don't see anyone else having put a precise number on their expectations. Most commentators have put generalities, while others have said they're 100% sure Vringo will get billions. Time will tell.
    Nov 1 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    You're assuming Google can't develop a design around for less than 600-800M. I think that's unlikely. I think they could hire/award developers much less to do so.
    Nov 1 05:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    I've put my name and reputation with a prediction and gladly invite you and others to do the same. I welcome a marketplace full of ideas and arguments. Saying "your opinion is stupid" is neither an idea nor an argument. Please, point out where I'm flawed. I encourage my students to do this all the time and am happy to learn from being shown where I'm wrong.
    Nov 1 05:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    There're a lot of time and events that have to pass between now and any possible future royalty obligation. You're assuming a lot, including that the patents are valid and infringed and can't be designed around for a cost less than any potential future royalty obligation. Google could offer a $10M prize to any programmer that comes up with a design around the patents, and I bet they'd likely get at least one.
    Nov 1 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    The only thing that's certain in the law is that nothing's certain. I'll gladly pay you $1 for an insurance policy from you paying me $1M if it doesn't come back on appeal. If you're so "certain" that it will, that's a free dollar for you with no risk. If you're not willing to give me that insurance policy, then you're not so "certain" of it happening.
    Nov 1 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    Don't know what you mean by "fast track" appeal. They'd have to get in line just like everyone else, so appeal could easily take a year or more. Seems you're taking Vringo's arguments about whether there was even a motion pending as fact, which is not necessarily true.
    Nov 1 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    My article is completely accurate as to my opinion. As to facts that are going to occur in the future, no, I'm not a time traveler. And, yes, I was very neutral throughout my analysis of this case, as eventually the truth will come out. I didn't take a position until the trial was virtually over and then I did so based on my opinion of what the outcome would be. I haven't been emotionally invested in this case at all, and am still not. It's a very small position.
    Nov 1 12:14 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    Ha, not upset at all. I went short at lunch yesterday and plan to hold through verdict. If patents are invalidated, that's the best for me. If they're merely held not infringed, that's still good for me, if they're held infringed and valid, but jury awards trivial damages that's also good for me. Only thing bad for me is a substantial damages award, which I don't think is likely for the reasons I explain in the article.
    Nov 1 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    There are many things important. This is my expected jury verdict. I haven't opined yet on what the judge might award as an ongoing royalty should be deny an injunction and should the jury find the patents valid and infringed. You're talking about something that's way in the future, relatively speaking, and there are lots of events between now and then. For now, the next event is the jury verdict, and that's all I've addressed here.
    Nov 1 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    There is a chance of anything. I've seen juries award $5M and $1B. My over/under, to borrow a Vegas phrase, is $95M if the patents are held infringed and valid, which I think there's a 2/3rds chance they will.
    Nov 1 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    70% chance patents are infringed PLUS 90% chance patents are valid PLUS $95M if patents are infringed and valid results in a net present expected value of $60M. There's a 1/3 chance the result will be zero and a 2/3 chance the result will be around $95M in my humble opinion.
    Nov 1 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    Oh, sure, there are lots of other lawsuits Vringo could file (if it's patents are not invalidated). I've written here what I think this trial is worth in net present value terms.
    Nov 1 11:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Outcome Probabilities [View article]
    A reasonable royalty is what the jury is to award for damages for past infringement. An ongoing royalty is what the judge can award for future infringement if he denies an injunction. All this assuming the patents are valid and infringed, as I think they are.
    Nov 1 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
346 Comments
308 Likes