Daniel Caycedo

Long only, value, etf investing
Daniel Caycedo
Long only, value, ETF investing
Contributor since: 2013
There is no tool or formula that can consistently and accurately predict future returns.... Just look at Research Analyst prediction results. Or MF long term performance compared to the corresponding market returns.
I don't believe this is considered a dividend.... and if it was a "stock dividend"... stock dividends are not taxed when you recieve them but when you sell them... You would need to adjust the cost basis accordingly.
Oh you guys are so silly. Whether you like to acknowledge it or not, there is risk any time an investor attempts to achieve returns higher than Treasury Bills.
Less Risk NEVER = More upside. If IBM had "safe" 60% returns, every Hedge fund, Mutual Fund, pension fund, and individual investor would be purchasing IBM to the point that the value factor would no longer be there. You can say that IBM has the characteristics of a good undervalued company if thats what you believe but that does not negate the risk of the investment. Please do not pretend that risk does not exist because You are a value investor and you (in your opinion) have found an undervalued company.
Risk is a part of every investment. More risk, more return. That is a fact.
Anecdotes aside, their is always risk in any investment, in individual stocks in particular. To say that an investment is safe while touting potential 60% returns is contradictory.
A "Safe" 60% return? Returns come from taking risk.... There is no Free lunch
That would be silly since legalization of pot in other countries has not increased but actually decreased use. People already smoke pot whether legal or not and go to 7-11 or buy pizza. The number of people that visit 7-11 or buy pizza will not necessarily increase due to an influx of "legal" pot purchases unless they have some kind of discount for people who show they bought pot legally.
Chuck,
I appreciate the time you take to teach so much.
Great article and awesome insight on LF.
I love your F.A.S.T. Graphs program and your teachings. Thank you so much! I learn something every time I read an article of yours.
Well, good to hear what the software margins may be...
I think that the Amazon links shows great customer support as the complaints are being answered individually. Additionally, the amazon reviews show how much more revenue is generated from app sales. The device is sold to promote app sales that have greater profit margins than the hardware.
LF's margins are strongest in their application sales. Long term, hardware is sold to promote access, purchase and use of the apps, software, and cartridges... If competitors use LF's apps on their own hardware, LF makes money.
Sounds like great innovation, taking advantage of competitors devices to sell LF product.
Tapering is gradual reduction of purchasing. That means that insurance companies, since they do better with higher interest rates, should gradually grow stronger balance sheets.... "Should"
I think that it would reflect poorly on the management if they set their revenue guidance for double digit growth and then only hit single digits. LF is doing incredibly well in sales, products are constantly sold out. If the management starts to reflect this optimism in their future guidance, I think that would be a time to reassess ownership due to over confidence of management and unrealistic expectations of future results. I personally appreciate the realistic revenue-growth guidance approach. LF might not have the most popular selling products forever, they just are have them right now. That's why I am long.
Love it, Long Aflac
Just another reason to like Aflac.
Holthusen,
I agree with Astro's response, however I also believe this stock has traded like a cyclical the past few years, it runs up during the summer up until the end of Christmas and then trades back down into a lower range the rest of the year with some occasions of volatility.
Long term however, it continues to make higher highs and higher lows which is a good growth sign. In addition, the longer the companies that could potentially take market share wait, the more of a foothold LF will have within the market. Right now Apple, Hasbro, Samsung, and Mattel are no competition and at least Apple and Samsung don't seem to desire to be in LF's market. LF is building their brand as the go to children's learning device. I believe this will pay dividends (in growth) into the future.
*Ipads and tablets break, the new LF devices are nearly indestructible.
Joseph,
I do not think that LF paying a dividend makes it a more attractive investment. LF has proven that it does a good job of using their income to reinvest into new products. If LF was to decide to pay a dividend, I think that it would signal that they believe their growth and growth opportunity is slowing and that "we" as investors would have better ideas for investing the dollar bills than LF does. As long as LF continues to develop new products that increase the return on investment, I do not believe is dividend is necessary.
LF has a positive catalyst before the holiday season with the upcoming school year. School year sales in the middle and end August will give a good idea of what the demand will look like going forward and into the holiday season.
Very Interesting article. I will do my due own diligence but you support your conclusion very well, I appreciate you bringing this to light.
Why don't they pay a dividend?
Whether or not he is trying to "convice himself" or us... INTC has returned 22% YTD, outpacing the S&P as well as paying a 4+% dividend. I think that Ashraf has pretty good reason to believe in the future of INTC as these gains were made amidst the bears.
AFL's exposure to JPY is why the stock is undervalued right now. If there was no exposure then the stock would not be on sale. This is the price with the bad news accounted for. I believe in the long term for Aflac and therefore like to purchase it on sale.
Another great article, Thanks Tim!
I went long IBM at the same price and plan to be here long term, looking to add on an overall market pull back or more "bad news" about IBM from analysts. Can't argue with past results and I have no crystal ball to tell the future, so until I do, IBM will help me sleep well at night.