Seeking Alpha

Daniel Hansberger

View as an RSS Feed
View Daniel Hansberger's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A New Year's Gift From BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust - Beneficial Alaskan Production Tax Reform [View article]
    Thanks for the additional information and links AlaskaOil - it is appreciated.
    Jan 8 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Year's Gift From BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust - Beneficial Alaskan Production Tax Reform [View article]
    The new tax legislation went into effect on January 1 which means from then until August, the real world inputs into the model have changed. I'm not sure why that wouldn't warrant a changing of the model.
    Jan 8 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Many Questions Remain To Buy Hugoton Royalty Trust [View article]
    The amount of hostility in people's comments is directly porportional to how torched they've been on previous articles written on HGT.

    The truth is that anything short of a bullish promote on a certain stock is met with extreme criticism from all of the perma bulls.

    I really like natural gas as a long term play because of the fundamentals on a macro level. Look at natural gas prices around the world - they're trading at multiples of what Henry Hub is. Common sense tells us that those prices will have to converge towards one another so either the US drives all other prices down or the world drives US prices up. I think LNG terminals (the ability to affordably market our gas internationally) will cause prices here to rise and world wide prices to fall.
    Oct 21 06:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Permian Trust: Well Performance, Hedges, And Excellent Returns In The Near Term [View article]
    Thanks Bear, this is my 2nd article and there are a lot of nay-sayers, but I welcome feedback as it sharpens future articles. The hardest part about this one is that I'm long as well, but they're responding like I'm short!
    Sep 3 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Permian Trust: Well Performance, Hedges, And Excellent Returns In The Near Term [View article]
    Pipeline constraints weren't a topic in my article because the price differential between WTI Midland and WTI Cushing has narrowed.
    Sep 3 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Permian Trust: Well Performance, Hedges, And Excellent Returns In The Near Term [View article]
    I'm actually long PER - I got in today. Actually differentials were back to normal in Q2 2013 so the spread between WTI and WTS or WTI Midland has nothing to do with the Q2 2013 distribution.
    Sep 3 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Permian Trust: Well Performance, Hedges, And Excellent Returns In The Near Term [View article]
    The article is forward looking so I started after the last distribution. As I mentioned above, the subordination thresholds are only mentioned to illustrate upside for investors who may not know about them. The "target" distributions are still intended to be the target and the trust is still falling short of those.
    Sep 3 09:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Permian Trust: Well Performance, Hedges, And Excellent Returns In The Near Term [View article]
    Per SEC filings, the trust used a ($4.27)/bbl deduct from NYMEX prices due to quality and location, BTU content, and post-production costs so it's more than just the spread between WTI-Cushing and WTI-Midland or WTS. The spread component between WTI-Cushing and WTI-Midland that I use is only ($1.00)/bbl which is more in line with future expectations based on pipeline capacity alleviation.

    They added to their hedge positions in April 2012. If the wells don't come in like they expect, they risk being in an over hedged situation. Also, I mentioned in the article that the yearly hedges were averaged across the four quarters and Q1 2015 just happens to be the first quarter after the drilling program ends so. It is obviously more likely that they would utilize the hedges earlier in the year in order to maximize unit holder return.

    To imply that this destroys the article's credibility is a stretch in my opinion.
    Sep 3 09:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Permian Trust: Well Performance, Hedges, And Excellent Returns In The Near Term [View article]
    You're absolutely right on the return in the out years - that was my mistake. Thanks for the comment.
    Sep 3 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sandridge Permian Trust: Well Performance, Hedges, And Excellent Returns In The Near Term [View article]
    That's a fair point - I should be more careful with language like "we know". Given that PER is 9% owned by institutional investors, I'm making high level observations about how the other 91% invests.

    It's impossible for me to predict how SD will pick up rigs and lay them down. Even then, my 64 wells per quarter forecast is optimistic even to the average of the last 5 quarters (from Q2 2012 to Q2 2013) so if anything, I'm positively impacting the valuation here.

    The most recent dividend was above the subordination threshold, but I don't see how that is relevant. The target is still the "target" for the trust. In my article, I'm just explaining that the subordination is great news for PER investors. It's still bad news that PER can't hit the "target" distributions.
    Sep 3 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Overvalued By 30% In This Price Environment [View article]
    No

    The price is still too rich for my tastes!
    Aug 12 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Overvalued By 30% In This Price Environment [View article]
    All I can say about the chargeable costs is that they're given (an increase of $2.75/year beyond the year 2020) in the 10-K and that the track record has been that they've stuck with estimates given initially (see 2004 estimates of chargeable costs in 2013). There's no data to support that they'll deviate from what's been laid out in the 10-K.
    Aug 12 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Overvalued By 30% In This Price Environment [View article]
    The reason why I chose proved is because the industry is somewhat standardized on proved reserves. There are rules for booking proved undeveloped reserves and there are rules about how long you can keep proved undeveloped reserves on the books before you have to drill them. The probable bucket can vary from company to company and is much less regulated, if regulated at all. I just skimmed through the 10-K and didn't see any information on what BP described as "probable reserves". There is, undoubtedly, a very large number of probable reserves and you would expect more proved reserves as price rises or development continues, but right now we don't have the hard data to support that.
    Aug 12 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Overvalued By 30% In This Price Environment [View article]
    In short, the net reserves attributed to BPT has gone down several times in fact. From 1995-1996, 2002-2004,2005-2006, and 2007-2008. In all of those date ranges, the trust saw negative revisions to net proved reserves. All of this information is from the historical 10-Ks. Did you check them before you posted?

    I'm not an accountant but I like numbers and data!
    Aug 8 10:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Overvalued By 30% In This Price Environment [View article]
    I don't agree that companies understate potential reserves as a function of conservative accounting. In fact, I would say the opposite. There are stale PUDs sitting on everyone's books that companies push year after year until they can't push them anymore. I would say that oil companies in general are very reluctant to write reserves down.

    So a 16 year oil forecast with oil above $100 for all 16 of those years isn't bullish? Can you support why you think this is conservative? It sounds like you're upset because I took a viewpoint that is opposite yours.
    Aug 7 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
25 Comments
26 Likes