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Daniel Irvin  

  • Low Oil Prices Could Accelerate Puerto Rico's Recovery
    Fri, Jan. 9 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Like many other island economies, Puerto Rico is disproportionately reliant on oil.
    • Power generation is 68% oil.
    • Every $20 per barrel fall in oil prices reduces what Puerto Rico residents pay by 1.1% of the Island's GDP.
  • CVR Refining, LP And CVR Partners, LP Trading At Significant Discount To CVR Energy, Inc.
    Dec. 5, 2014 CVI, CVRR, UAN 12 Comments

    Summary

    • CVI holds 2 assets: 53% of UAN and 66% of CVRR.
    • The market value of CVI's holdings of these two MLPs is currently about 65% of CVI's market cap, close to the lowest point since all three have been publicly traded.
    • CVI's holdings of CVRR and UAN have traded as high as nearly 105% and have averaged over 80% of CVI's market cap.
    • Convergence toward mean relative valuations would result in a 20% increase in the market value of CVI's two MLP holdings relative to CVI's market cap.
  • Is Puerto Rico The Next Greece?
    Mar. 30, 2014 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Puerto Rico's fiscal condition has been compared to Greece's.
    • This ignores Puerto Rico's credit strengths including debt service under 15% of government revenues.
    • But what is most misunderstood about all governments' finances is that lack of will, not lack of means, is usually the more serious threat to bondholders.
  • Continued Hysteria Over Puerto Rico Provides One Last Buying Opportunity
    Feb. 17, 2014 EEML, FLN, GML 24 Comments
  • Is It Crazy To Buy These Bonds?
    Nov. 16, 2013 MUB, PZA, MUNI 6 Comments
  • It's Not Crazy To Buy Bonds
    Nov. 11, 2013 MUB, PZA, MUNI 2 Comments
  • Bonds Or Equities: Intended And Unintended Consequences Of Fed Policies
    Oct. 31, 2013 2 Comments
  • Panic In Puerto Rico Bonds Presents Buying Opportunity
    Sep. 19, 2013 13 Comments