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Daniel James

 
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  • Buy American Airlines Before Earnings
    Thu, Jan. 22 AAL 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Airline stocks have been ripping higher as consolidation in the industry has led to huge bottom line improvements.
    • No one is at the moment better positioned to benefit from lower fuel costs than American Airlines.
    • Q4 results are likely to surprise to the upside, and valuations are ridiculously low.
  • Which U.S. Brewer Looks Best?
    Wed, Jan. 21 SAM, BUD, STZ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • US brewers have been doing well lately.
    • Constellation and Boston Beer are easily outperforming this industry.
    • Although the valuation is high, Boston Beer looks like a good bet for 2015.
  • Does Sonic's Growth Justify Its Valuation?
    Mon, Jan. 19 SONC 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Sonic is easily outpacing the fast food industry.
    • A strong core menu combined with affordable prices is fueling impressive same-store sales growth.
    • Although the valuation is pricey, this seems more than justified by the company's underlying growth.
  • Just How Bad Was Tiffany's Update?
    Thu, Jan. 15 TIF Comment!

    Summary

    • There have been mixed reactions to Tiffany's trading update.
    • In my opinion, the picture looks fairly bad at the moment.
    • However, following the sell-off, valuations are more in line with the market.
  • Burlington Continues To Outpace The Industry
    Mon, Jan. 12 BURL 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Overall, apparel retailers have had a solid holiday season.
    • Off-price retailers seem to be doing especially well.
    • In this space, Burlington has been doing a great job of growing earnings, and moreover trades at a discount looking at price-to-sales.
  • Retail Roundup: Teen Fashion Stages A Recovery
    Sun, Jan. 11 AEO, ARO, GPS Comment!

    Summary

    • Overall, apparel retailers had a great holiday season.
    • Even teen fashion retailers are showing signs of improvement.
    • Those betting on a turnaround might just find their thesis validated, although it is too early to tell for sure.
  • Amid Retail Upturn, J.C. Penney Delivers On Turnaround Story
    Thu, Jan. 8 JCP 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Overall, retailers had a strong showing for the holiday season.
    • Struggling department store chain J.C. Penney delivered comps in line with the market.
    • The turnaround looks like its finally taking hold.
  • Time To Go Shopping For Retail ETFs
    Dec. 26, 2014 PMR, RTH, XRT Comment!

    Summary

    • Strength in retail was a major factor in the Q3 U.S. GDP read.
    • The sector looks very strong going into 2015.
    • The ETFs discussed in this article provide easy and affordable access to the sector.
  • Macau Slowdown: The New Normal?
    Dec. 25, 2014 GLXZ, LVS 3 Comments

    Summary

    • After years of spectacular growth, Macau seems to be slowing down.
    • There are several reasons for this, including softer growth in China and a government crackdown on corruption.
    • While the short-term outlook is bearish, the industry offers decent prospects in the long term.
  • Is CarMax Worth Considering After Earnings?
    Dec. 23, 2014 KMX 1 Comment

    Summary

    • CarMax is delivering consistent growth as a result of strong demand for used cars.
    • While the valuation is a bit high, it seems to be backed up by the company's results.
    • As such, it looks like a good bet in the space.
  • Finally, Some Signs Of Improvement At Darden
    Dec. 19, 2014 DRI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • After a few rough years, things seem to be looking up at Darden Restaurants.
    • Olive Garden posted a positive comp figure.
    • Darden is finally starting to look a bit like a turnaround play.
  • Is IBM Really In Such Bad Shape?
    Dec. 15, 2014 IBM 55 Comments

    Summary

    • IBM is trading at very low multiples at the moment following a brutal post-earnings selloff.
    • To some degree, the valuation is justified due to the company's poor results recently.
    • For those betting on a turnaround, the stock is a bargain at the moment, but there is as of yet no evidence of this.
  • After The Hack: Time To Buy Sony Before PS4 Hits China?
    Dec. 14, 2014 SNE 8 Comments

    Summary

    • In addition to slowing sales and a plunge in profits, Sony is dealing with an embarrassing security breach.
    • However, the PS4 is soon to hit China, which could provide a serious boost to sales and earnings.
    • Together with a low valuation, this could pave the way for gains going into 2015.
  • AutoZone Is Working On Its Commercial Segment
    Dec. 12, 2014 AZO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • AutoZone once again reported double-digit earnings growth.
    • However, analysts are worried about its relatively low exposure to the commercial segment.
    • Management seems to be aware of the issue, and is working on closing the gap.
  • American Eagle Outfitters' Results Look Worse Than They Are
    Dec. 9, 2014 AEO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Most companies in the teen fashion retail space are getting beaten up after earnings.
    • The same happened to American Eagle Outfitters, due to weak guidance.
    • However, the company seems to be doing quite a bit better than the competition from a sales and gross profit point of view.
  • Aeropostale Reports Another Grim Quarter
    Dec. 5, 2014 ARO Comment!

    Summary

    • There are still no signs of improvement from teen fashion retail.
    • In fact, things seem to be getting worse, as Aeropostale again posts a decline in earnings and revenue.
    • At the moment, there is no reason to be bullish on the company or the industry.
  • Boot Barn Kicks Off With Solid Growth, But Valuation Is Out Of Line
    Dec. 4, 2014 BOOT Comment!

    Summary

    • Boot Barn had an excellent first earnings report as a publicly traded company.
    • Revenue and earnings growth easily outpaced the industry.
    • However, the valuation is steep at the moment, and forward numbers are a bit murky.
  • Mattress Firm Delivers On Growth
    Dec. 3, 2014 MFRM Comment!

    Summary

    • Mattress Firm once again delivered impressive results.
    • Its aggressive expansion strategy seems to be paying off.
    • However, the valuation may be getting a bit ahead of itself.
  • Ctrip's Margin Guidance Is A Serious Concern
    Dec. 1, 2014 CTRP 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Ctrip beat on earnings, but saw its net income fall.
    • Guidance for the fourth quarter was worrying due to margin pressure.
    • It seems better to wait until signs that the company's huge investments are paying off before getting in.
  • Retail Roundup: Strong Numbers To Kick Off The Holiday Season
    Dec. 1, 2014 BBY, M, TGT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Many retailers reported a strong showing for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.
    • The online channel did especially well, paving the way for further gains among retailers this holiday season.
    • Although Macy's and Wal-Mart were affected by protests on the Ferguson verdict and higher wages, respectively, shoppers seem to have been undeterred.
  • What's Going On At The Gap?
    Nov. 27, 2014 GPS Comment!

    Summary

    • The Gap has been experiencing something of a slowdown lately, after years of outperforming the industry.
    • Yet, management seems to be aware of the need to chase growth.
    • A new partnership in Europe should help the company achieve this, and with excellent management in place, it should be able to return to solid growth.
  • Best Buy Looks Strong Going Into The Holidays
    Nov. 25, 2014 BBY 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Best Buy's third quarter report showed evidence of a sustained turnaround.
    • With momentum expected to continue, the firm should be looking forward to a strong holiday quarter.
    • Trading at a reasonable multiple, the stock looks like it could deliver some upside over the next few months.
  • Home Depot Vs. Lowe's: Who Looks Better After Earnings?
    Nov. 24, 2014 HD, LOW 2 Comments

    Summary

    • America's two main home improvement chains reported earnings last week, which are as usual quite similar.
    • Although Lowe's is closing the gap, Home Depot is still ahead in terms of same-store sales growth.
    • As it also has a lower valuation, and higher expectations in terms of future growth, Home Depot looks like the best bet.
  • Not Buying The GameStop Turnaround Story Yet
    Nov. 23, 2014 GME 14 Comments

    Summary

    • GameStop came out with poor earnings, providing insufficient evidence a sustained turnaround.
    • The company also lowered guidance for the holiday season, which is a worrying sign.
    • I would recommend staying away for now.
  • Vipshop: Another Chinese E-Commerce Play Tanks On Solid Earnings
    Nov. 21, 2014 VIPS 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Like JD.com, Vipshop tanked after solid earnings.
    • It seems investors are no longer satisfied with these companies merely meeting estimates.
    • They continue to rally and maintain huge growth, but active investors could consider staying away during earnings reports.
  • Is JD.com A Buy After The Selloff?
    Nov. 19, 2014 JD Comment!

    Summary

    • Despite strong earnings, JD.com tanked following its recent earnings report.
    • Investors have come to expect enormous growth and the outlook disappointed.
    • Still, there are several reasons to be bullish on the company.
  • Cisco Pessimism Is Overdone
    Nov. 14, 2014 CSCO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Analysts were disappointed by Cisco's lackluster guidance, which overshadowed an earnings and revenue beat.
    • However, the stock isn't expensive, and the company still has avenues left for growth.
    • As such, Cisco offers good value, a sentiment which was to some degree echoed by the rally on the day following the report.
  • How Long Does American Apparel Have Left?
    Nov. 13, 2014 APP 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Once again, American Apparel came out with poor results.
    • Litigation and settlement costs are weighing heavily on the bottom line.
    • Even disregarding these factors, the company has to address its dwindling sales or face bankruptcy.
  • Still No Good News From Abercrombie & Fitch
    Nov. 12, 2014 ANF 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Abercrombie & Fitch has been hit hard by the downturn in the teen fashion retail space.
    • Its business update for the third quarter was dismal.
    • Partly, this weakness is due to loss of market share to competitors like H&M.
  • Sprouts Delivers On Growth, But Valuation Remains A Concern
    Nov. 10, 2014 SFM Comment!

    Summary

    • Sprouts has been delivering excellent growth in a tough industry.
    • Yet, after losing a lot of ground this year, its valuation is still very high.
    • To make it a solid buy, it would have to shed some more value.
  • Mondelez Beats On Earnings, But Is Growth Drying Up?
    Nov. 6, 2014 MDLZ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Mondelez delivered a huge earnings beat, sending shares higher.
    • However, the company is relying heavily on cost cutting and price hikes, as volume is down in many areas.
    • To sustain real growth, it will have to start growing volume.
  • Is AIG Really A Buy?
    Nov. 5, 2014 AIG 8 Comments

    Summary

    • AIG, one the great turnaround stories of the last decade, is often cited as a strong financial stock.
    • However, while book value is rising consistently, earnings growth is expected to slow down.
    • Its low valuation could propell the stock higher, although competitor Allianz is valued similarly.