Daniel Lauchheimer

Value
Daniel Lauchheimer
Value
Contributor since: 2012
Haven't looked in a bit, but I believe a lot is stock based compensation.
Good question. That's the companies internal estimates. See p.34 of S-1
http://bit.ly/1cn64aJ
Sorry!
Here is the link
http://dthin.gs/1535bPZ
Fair point. Using R&D as a percentage of revenue would yield different results.
Your ability to throw random, irrelevant data into a very simple discussion truly knows no bounds.
Since it seems very difficult for you, I suggest you do the following.
Get Amazon's 10-K, and go to the cash flow statement. There are two relevant line items you need
1. Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities
2. Purchases of property and equipment, including internal-use software and website development
That's it.
I also find it interesting that you think *less* data is better than more. Especially considering the 2012 data you use represents a true outlier for Amazon's total reinvestment program. If you would take a minute to look at the data I neatly provided above you would learn just the same.
And thank you for agreeing with me, Peter Thiel's comparison was either wrong, or disingenuous. Glad you came around.
Sweet heart, you only took *one* year. My figures account for the past 11 years.
And this past year they only spent $3.7bn on Capex. Don't know where you get your $4.4bn figure from.
Not sure why you are adding in the tax discussion here, net cash from operating activities, is just that. Net cash, which basically adds back all non-cash charges as a reconciliation. Not so in the mood to do an accounting 101 course, which you seem to desperately need, so I will just leave it at that.
1. "You forgot that the company also invests heavily into data centers"
The line item I used in the 10-K for the reinvestment figure states, Purchases of property and equipment, including internal-use software and website development
Seems pretty clear as day to me that this includes AWS, and its data centers.
2. "because it tends to use all of its excess capital in one way or another" Simply not true, as a percentage of net operating cash, as I showed, they invest a lower amount into their business.
Yes, but he specifically singled out Amazon as one of the few leaders in this area, and the evidence doesn't support his endorsement.
my guesses.
but they are *somewhat* informed, not based on the thin air.
Well, unlike you I have many people, and things to deal with. Generally, in a case like yours, when not conforming to the normal state of things, a sentence or two is put as an explanation.
But to the substance. EXAS pays a licencing fee to the Mayo Clinic. Mayo Clinic doesn't really care if the drug succeeds or it doesn't. If you cannot comprehend the distinction between that and a commercial arrangement where both parties depend on the financial success of the product, I don't really have so much to say to you.
Considering EXAS's huge market, one would assume they would need at least a marketing partner to help introduce this new drug to such a wide population. The fact they haven't gotten that doesn't bode well.

Unlike you, I won't hurl some baseless insult to finish my response, I think my work speaks for itself ....
Well, while I might not have the most basic command of the facts, but at least I know basic counting. You list your points in the following order:
1, 3, 4, 5, 7. In standard methods of counting, the number two comes after number one, and number six comes after five. But I digress.
Whatever assay(s) Cologuard can detect, the company has said it only has one developed market right now, and one in the future. Detection of colorectal cancer now, and irritable bowel syndrome in the future.
The Mayo Clinic, is in fact *not* a commercial enterprise. It is a non-for-profit. In case you disagree, I suggest you consult their annual report. Where, on page two, they state in big letters and in no uncertain terms, "Mayo Clinic is the first and largest integrated,
not-for-profit medical group practice in the world". No shareholders, no profit.
The problem with the Deep-C test is that it reported just 42% sensitivity to precancerous polyps and 66% for polyps two centimeters in size or larger. You can ignore this fact, and fantasize about the heaps of money coming EXAS way, or you can own up to it.
You waver between saying anyone and everyone has approached EXAS, and then saying EXAS doesn't need any partner. Forgetting, you haven't mustered any evidence to support the former -- which one is it?
Please read the previous comments, before rehashing already rebutted criticisms.
Earnings per share.
Ouch. I never realized share price didn't matter that much. Market cap doesn't take into account share count, and hence EPS, just a small factor to consider when investing in a company.
On the pricing -- I prefer to use a conservative model, which looks at the *current* pricing this test is coming to replace.
PIK3CA, BRAF, KRAS -- well, I got my info from the company's 10-K (p. 8). Check it out, let me know what you think.
$850mm -- more like $920mm, which in most calculations is pretty darn close to $1bn, a simple trip to Google or Yahoo finance could have given you that info. To use your favorite market cap calculation (apparently the only relevant metric in finance) a change of $1 (7.5%) would give them a market cap of $1bn.
Fair, I never took the time to reconcile the two -- but comparing them on a per share or market cap basis, does yield different results. Either way I think the point comes across.
Well.
First, I don't know exactly where your information come from, but I did not see anywhere in any of the public SEC filings from EXAS a reference to their KRAS assays. Their assays seem directed at polyp detection, which would then necessitate a colonoscopy.
Second, I stand corrected. The partnership with LabCorp expired.
Third,. Mayo Clinic, last time I checked, was not a for profit institution. *Commercial* validation requires a *commercial* partner
Fourth, last I checked revenue gets reported once a year, not once every three years. As such, without any voodoo mark to model accounting, we need to look at their annual revenue.
Fifth, as I mentioned in my article, EXAS did not publish positive results from that FDA trial, which kinda throws cold water on it.
Sixth, I can see it now, a TrovaGene SuperBowl Commercial -- a guy taking a leak, closes up the sample, and sends it FedEx to a TROV lab. Cross-marketing-SuperB... success at its best!
Seventh, never said anything about EXAS management team. But the lack of any *commercial* partnerships seems a bit telling to me.
Costs per test are coming from the current prices for these tests using the "traditional" methods.
Shoot! I forgot to mention that. Very correct. Thanks for pointing it out.
From p. 8 of the annual report --
Our HPV assay showed a sensitivity of 93.0% and specificity of 96.0% for the detection of HPV virus in a comparative study of 320 high-risk individuals
The company also wrote that they *anticipate* higher sp/se numbers for TrDNA in general. Though, to your point they don't provide those numbers.
Once weekly for which? hGH? Well, the EU gave them 10 years of market exclusivity, so whatever LG comes out with, it needs to sell it elsewhere.
http://bit.ly/1bZEBgl
Not sure I see the conflict of interest.
Dr Frost owns a significant stake in PBTH, and he is simply buying the rest of the company he doesn't own. When Warren Buffett bought out the remaining stake in Burlington Northern he didn't own, or the remaining stake in GEICO he didn't own, was that a conflict of interest?
And to Qninform -- shareholder lawsuits post mergers happen all the time. See p.6 of this decision:
http://bit.ly/12fkDfS
All I hear is what you said at the end, "CMG is becoming Whole Foods of Fast Food ... IMO". That sounds very hollow to me. CMG's has weak *fundamentals* if you buy into it, you are *only* buying into the cool story. If that doesn't end well, you're in trouble. And surprise, surprise, that was the whole point of my article.
It seems a bit tenuous to attribute a multiple expansion to a "new Asian concept".
And comparing CMG to AMZN is just plain foolish. One is a restaurant company and one is a tech company. the growth opportunity for a company like Amazon far outstrips that of CMG.
Great article.
Thanks for the perspective.
Correct.
CMG doesn't franchise restaurants or own RE.
As opposed to MCD.
Yeah,
BKW is transitioning from private to public and they are looking to adopt the MCD model -- more franchising, so there is optimism there, similar story with DNKD.
People also feel optimistic about KKD, and their turnaround. They started a small PR campaign a couple of weeks ago -- got some airtime on CNBC to show off their plans. Not sure if there is real substance there.
Thanks for the comment,
DL
Don't know much about it.
But compared to the above ...
12mm sq ft -- low
$376 sq ft -- low
$100 sq ft of debt -- kind of high
~20 price/ffo -- average-expensive
doesn't seem like such a great deal, but if you want a pure play in the outlet space it is good for that. but i don't really get the dynamics of that business, so cannot really comment. doesn't seem attractive to me because they will get beat by the internet on price and malls on experience and location.
SPG could make a safer bet because you have outlet exposure in the form of premium outlet, but you still get all their other assets, considering from the other perspectives -- price/ffo, debt -- their metrics seem somewhat similar.
Yes. Though Tesla will have the same impact as any high end retailer -- Tiffany's, Ralph Lauren, Prada, etc.
But point well taken.
Thanks,
DL
Thanks!
Thanks for the compliment!
What do you see in the VNO pref over the common? I would think less upside there.
JCP stake is relatively small -- wouldn't worry too much about it.
Johnson went from retail to retail.
Frost is going from pharma to pharma.
How is that a poor example?
Hi,
Thanks for the comment.
1. Phillip Frost is a pretty large shareholder of Prolor, so I doubt shareholders will have the ability to hold up the merger.
2. You hit my thesis right on the head! Granted, it is very optimistic, and PBTH still has a very long way to go until they fully mature, but I really like their assets, and could see them adding a meaningful amount of revenue going forward.
Thanks again for your comment,
DL