Daniel Miller

Oil Prices Likely to Face Pressure Until Q4

I would hope that most are aware of the plunge in oil prices in 4Q08, and the data in no way states that pries always rise in the fourth quarter.

I think most would agree that the cyclical nature of oil prices and the data presented above is very interesting. If you're expecting a broad rally in oil prices during 2009, and a global economic recovery in 2H09 or 1H10, the data supports more strength in prices during the last quarter of the year.

Financial Engineering and Wall Street Compensation

Let me clarify, compensation has been limited and will continued to be limited well into the foreseeable future. However, the key is that banks must remain competitive, and be mindful that limits such as claw-back provisions may unduly limit risk-taking. Plans such as the Partner Asset Facility ensure that a firm is able to afford competitive compensation, while also greatly reducing the firm-wide risk from their mortgage backed security portfolios.


On Dec 23 06:09 AM The hand wrote:

> "Banks must also be careful not to limit compensation too much, as
> under capitalized firms face the possibility of loosing employees
> to other institutions if they're unable to afford competitive compensation
> packages."
>
> daniel, if all major banks are receiving government money - then
> all of their compensation should be limited. the unions use the
> same argument about compensation. compensation must match the situation.
>

Oil Markets, Speculators, and Vitol Group's Controlling Stake

1 - Individual position information is not public information
2 - The CFTC reports weekly information for each exchange - report for July 10 states that 4 or less traders held 26.4% of the gross open interest positions and according to reports Vitol held ~11% - leaving ~15.3% for 3 or less traders. Feel free to compare this to the other weekly Commitments of Traders reports at cftc.gov
3 - Feel free to ask Vitol Group.
4 & 5 - Again, feel free to compare this to other Commitments of Traders reports which date back to 1986.
6 - Feel free to contact GS and ask about their individual fund's positions.
7 - The only way that question could possibly be relevant is if you were to discuss general speculative/growth movements in price - much less security price movements in two completely different asset classes.
8 - Possibly because the CFTC began to investigate and also changed their status to a speculative member - therefore imposing greater position limits by the exchange.

The SEC's New IDEA: 'Financial Disclosure Meets the Matrix'

The aggregate total nominal and real return of the stock market has outperformed bonds, gold, and commodities since 1801 according to Jeremy Siegel's research, and (I think its safe to say) with a very healthy margin.

The SEC's new initiative will allow for increased transparency and I think most value investors will agree that a value investing approach is near impossible without understanding the underlying business - both qualitatively and quantitatively.

The Bankers' Bailout: Sovereign Wealth Funds in a Global Economy

The Treasury's Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States is responsible for reviewing the security implications of foreign investment in the United States, and has been for the past 20 years. The committee includes representatives from various national agencies responsible for our national security, including the Defense Department and Department of Homeland Security.