Daniel Miller

Oil Prices Likely to Face Pressure Until Q4

I would hope that most are aware of the plunge in oil prices in 4Q08, and the data in no way states that pries always rise in the fourth quarter.

I think most would agree that the cyclical nature of oil prices and the data presented above is very interesting. If you're expecting a broad rally in oil prices during 2009, and a global economic recovery in 2H09 or 1H10, the data supports more strength in prices during the last quarter of the year.

Oil Markets, Speculators, and Vitol Group's Controlling Stake

1 - Individual position information is not public information
2 - The CFTC reports weekly information for each exchange - report for July 10 states that 4 or less traders held 26.4% of the gross open interest positions and according to reports Vitol held ~11% - leaving ~15.3% for 3 or less traders. Feel free to compare this to the other weekly Commitments of Traders reports at cftc.gov
3 - Feel free to ask Vitol Group.
4 & 5 - Again, feel free to compare this to other Commitments of Traders reports which date back to 1986.
6 - Feel free to contact GS and ask about their individual fund's positions.
7 - The only way that question could possibly be relevant is if you were to discuss general speculative/growth movements in price - much less security price movements in two completely different asset classes.
8 - Possibly because the CFTC began to investigate and also changed their status to a speculative member - therefore imposing greater position limits by the exchange.