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Daniel Moser

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  • Is Standard & Poor's Any Better With Stocks Than Asset Backed Debt? [View article]
    Immediately I have to apoligize for the tables looking so horrible. They didn't look like that in the writing process. My bad.
    Aug 2 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Funds Fail to Hedge – Again [View article]
    May was a liquidity driven sell off in which many institutions moved to reduce risk (whether it be in short positions or long positions accross all asset classes) in an effort to raise liquidity. Notice how LIBOR shot up during May as the European problems came into the headlines (including some Spanish bank failures). Concluding that hedge funds don't hedge on account of poor performance coinciding with poor equity market performance, at best, leaves a lot to be desired.
    Jun 2 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bullish Case for Russia, Round II [View article]
    Before this gets out of hand with 20+ comments on the similar topic...

    "Privatization, particularly of Russia's oil, gas, and mineral resources, was a corrupt fiasco that created a small group of wildly rich and influential individuals. These oligarchs were clever businesspeople who took advantage of the weak state and lived above the laws they paid the politicians to write. Without effective laws and courts, companies resolved disputes by turning to what Russian sociologist Vadim Volkov calls 'violent entrepreneurial agencies,' or private legal enforcers....When Putin Won the presidential contest in March 2000, the previous decade of anguish had left him in no doubt that Russia's problems stemmed from the state's weakness." (courtesy of HBR article)

    So yes...of course...Putin made Russia Moscow centric to a much greater extent than it had previously been in the past decade. Hence previously there was hardly any rule of law at all (which a whole group of commenters seemed very quick to point out). How does one go about establishing a rule of law? Making a stronger central government with rules that are increasingly enforced. Yes, there is a long ways to go...but I think arguing that there have been no improvements is somewhat niave-and perhaps ill-informed. Granted maybe I am wrong.
    Mar 12 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World's Largest Hedge Funds [View article]
    I just happen to be glancing at Bridgewater's website today and noticed on their "About Us" section of their website...

    "Bridgewater manages approximately $73 billion* in global investments for a wide array of institutional clients, including foreign governments and central banks, corporate and public pension funds, university endowments and charitable foundations. Bridgewater has 800 employees and is based in Westport, Connecticut."

    Mar 9 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Investors and Policy Makers Misunderstand Asia? [View article]
    Thanks for reading and for the comment. I did some dirty calculations using data from the OECD website. In 1970 gross fixed investment as a percent of GDP was 36.2%. In 2007, gross fixed investment as a percent of GDP was 23.2%. Using the time series from 1971 through 2007, the correlation between gross fixed investment as a percent of GDP and Real GDP growth was 53.1%. I used 1971 as the starting point because the OECD data only went back to 1971 for Real GDP growth. Thanks again for reading.
    Feb 3 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Airline Stocks Are a Prime Candidate for the Short Side of a Clean Energy Portfolio [View article]
    There are a couple things that I feel should be added to the discussion. First, airlines are not a "major" source for the marginal demand of oil. If you take the time to observe via data from the eia roughly how much distillate fuel is converted into jet fuel for consumption, you are going to be grossly disappointed in how "not important" jet fuel is in the scheme of things. Secondly in terms of cost. You appear to have just about no idea whatsoever what the cost of jet fuel is. Jet fuel is not cheaper than conventional gasoline even factoring in any tax differentials.

    These might seem like minor points in the scheme of your overall article...and that is rightfully so. But your logic in how you arrive at your conclusion is off base a chunk, in my opinion, even if I agree with the outcome of your decision.
    Dec 22 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Demand: Not as Weak as You Think [View article]
    Definitely a stupid mistake on my part. Thanks for the correction.
    Nov 20 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Managers Find Favor in Oil [View article]
    You know what I find most interesting about this particular article? According to this analysis the "big bad energy speculators" are longer than ever in the market, yet somehow prices managed to stay below $140/bbl. How in the world can that be? I was so sure that speculation was what drove oil prices to $140 per barrel. Is it truly possible that supply and demand might actually have something to do with the price of oil? I digress...

    Thank you for the update on the position of market players. Now if only policy makers will focus on fixing the problems rather than playing idiotic blame games that clearly lack insufficient evidence supporting their claims.
    Nov 2 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stanford's Garage Sale Shows Swensen's Model Is Discredited [View article]
    Appreciate the update, but I am not really sure how sizable losses disprove the notion of Swensen's views on diversification of investment strategies.
    Oct 8 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Fund ETFs: The Door Has Opened [View article]
    I must respectfully disagree. Index IQ HF replication is a joke. They are curve fitting historical returns and not actually capturing the "real" source of alpha and probably not even capturing the real beta either. Do you really think that the average Global Macro hedge fund is 33% allocated to fixed income securities? Granted I obviously don't know the answer to that, but somehow I doubt it.

    There is definitely an argument to be made that hedge funds fees are too high for the majority of them, but niavely investing into a portfolio of etf's thinking you are going to get a sterotypical hedge fund like returns is preposterous. If you can't actually locate the source of alpha/beta to mimic the returns, there is an inherent tracking risk and even a possible risk of a signficant blow up. Investors should be very cautious with these new ETF's.
    Aug 31 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everybody Has a Plan Until They Get Punched: Mistakes to Avoid in Turbulent Markets [View article]
    Definitely a good read and a great quote. Thanks for the reminder.
    Jun 25 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soaring Retail Sales in China Demonstrate Economic Shift [View article]
    Desperate efforts to depict all the prosperity and progress in the U.S. as being monopolized by "the rich" have led to statistical mumbo jumbo, such as comparing the changing ratios between statistical categories over time and ignoring the fact that most people move from one category to another over the years.

    Studies that follow individuals over time show the exact opposite. That is, most of the working people in the bottom fifth of the income distribution rise into the top half, and the rate of increase of their incomes is greater than that of most of the people initially in the top fifth.

    - Thomas Sowell

    The income distributional justice argument is largely irrelevant for essentially everyone reading this blog.

    My contribution to the discussion would be that China actually has a few additional competitive advantages in terms of policy...they control the means of production for all practical purposes. In fact, approximately half of the Chinese stimulus money is actually coming from the government whereas the rest is being "directed" to banks and whatever other means the government has by the government. While the democratic nations of the world would like China to evolve into a more decentralized economy (i.e. more capitalistic), the very fact that they have a controlled economy can actually work to there benefit with one HUGE caveat: the government has to make good decisions. Which by virtually everyone's recognition-they are, especially when compared to the United States. I am fairly confident that as the global economy gets back on a robust track of expansion China will continue their progressively liberalizing to a full out capitalist society or at the very least much more decentralized.

    China's data integrity issues are a solid point and investors should without a doubt be somewhat skeptical of the exact accuracy of the numbers. However, that says nothing about the directional accuracy of data released by China. Furthermore the notion that investors should forgo investing in China because the transparency of what is actually going on is sketchy is not a very good in the scheme of things as it requires those investors to ignore a tremendous amount of qualitative data.

    For my final comment...

    "Sadly, corrupt and incompetent Western governments have demonstrated that they are much too arrogant to learn from China. Instead, they foolishly repeat past mistakes, while serving the needs of no one other than their bankster-overlords."

    It seems to me that the vast majority of U.S. politicians do things to benefit themselves regardless of whether or not it is good for the country. I guess in my opinion their second priority is to enrich their "chosen" people-which jeff apparently would argue is bankers whereas I might be inclined to argue it is environmentalists, unions, and government employees themselves.
    Jun 17 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problems with 'Hedge Fund Strategy' Funds [View article]
    Because intelligent investors have begun questioning the merits of long only investment strategies as their only source for returns. It is time that they look to more market neutral absolute investment return strategies.
    May 15 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Copper Headed for a Fall? [View article]
    Oil has increased for no reason whatsoever other than 4 million barrels per day of production cuts with a 80+% compliance among all OPEC members.

    Copper has increased for no reason at all either, give or take 40% Cap Ex cuts accross the board from all major copper producers. And very sizable if not identical cuts in production.

    Supply and Demand dictate these markets. In these cases you have future supply being cut coupled with speculation for improved demand.
    Apr 7 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problems with Hedge Fund ETF QAI [View article]
    I am extremely confident this new index fund will do little more than completely screw investors who think they are getting a good deal. This portfolio might very well go up, but I sincerely doubt it will replicate anything resembling the components of the broad hedge fund indexes. Someone smarter than me should explain how exactly they can replicate a merger arb strategy using a bunch of fixed income etf's and a few other etf's? Yes, I am well aware that they can curve fit a combo of the etf's to arrive as some factor exposure to any individual strategy, but inherently they are capturing returns based on very different factor exposures. As a result investors who buy this etf are very likely to see performance numbers that are not related to the hedge fund indexes at all.

    If you are an investor taking a look at a passive multi strategy vehicle, take a look at AQR's new mutual fund. They at least invest in the actual strategies which is far more likely to yield results that replicate the broad hedge fund indexes.

    This new etf is for foolish investors.
    Apr 1 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment