Daniel Moser

Four Ways to Invest in Brazil's Growth

The above was written by Rogerio Jelmayer, Dow Jones Newswires

Four Ways to Invest in Brazil's Growth

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazilian economists and financial market analysts have reduced their forecast for 2009 gross domestic product performance for the fourth consecutive time, according to the central bank's weekly market survey published Monday.
For the whole of 2009, analysts are expecting GDP at 0%, compared with an expansion of 0.01% forecast in the previous week's survey.
Brazil's GDP grew 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the same quarter the year earlier. For the full year, Brazil's GDP grew 5.1%.
In the latest survey, analysts kept their GDP growth view for 2010 at 3.5%.
The weekly central bank survey tracks the opinions of 100 analysts and economists from banks and brokerages, reporting the average of their expectations.
Economists reduced their 2009 IPCA inflation forecast to 4.32% from 4.42% in the previous week's survey.
The forecast is below the central bank's inflation forecast of 4.5% for 2009.
The rolling 12-month IPCA inflation rate through mid-March was 5.65%, according to the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE.
The respondents' average estimate for 2010's IPCA inflation was maintained at 4.5%.
The average estimate for the 2009 year-end benchmark Selic interest rate was kept at 9.25%. Currently, the Selic rate is at 11.25%.
For 2010, analysts cut their Selic rate view to 9.50% from 9.75%.
The estimate for the 2009 year-end debt-to-GDP ratio was increased to 37% from 36.5%.
Respondents increased their forecast for the 2009 foreign trade surplus to $14 billion from $13.02 billion seen in the previous survey.
Analysts expect a 2009 year-end current account deficit of $23.60 billion.
The real is expected to end this year at a level of BRL2.30 to the U.S. dollar, analysts said. On Friday, the real closed at BRL2.2915.