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Daniel Moser's  Instablog

Daniel Moser is a graduate of The University of Tulsa Collins College of Business. He majored in finance and has minors in economics and political Science. Currenty he holds a position in the commodity trading arm of a major integrated oil company in Texas. His research interests include Global... More
  • Evaluating the USD, Interest Rates, and Commodities
    In a report put out by Barclays called, “It’s Not Just the Dollar Stupid”, Barclays argues that “from time-to-time market commentators can become focused on certain relationships to the point of obsession. So it is with commodities and the value of the USD at present. Price moves of varying magnitudes in markets as diverse as oil, soybeans, gold and copper are all being attributed to recent fluctuations in the value of the US dollar, with very few other factors given much attention or significance. This obsession with currencies risks obscuring the important developments in fundamentals that is far more significant in determining and differentiating commodity market trends.”
     
    Yesterday, I found myself scratching my head profusely trying to figure out what the heck everyone was thinking with respect to currencies, interest rates, stocks and commodities. The logical argument presented yesterday was that interest rates moved up across the curve which led to a reversal in the USD decline against most other currencies which then took a negative toll on stocks and commodities alike. Does this make any since?
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    Oct 27 05:17 pm | Link | Comment!
  • What should investors think about copper just under $3 per pound?

    What should investors think about copper just under $3/lbs?  In my opinion investors (even those more short term trading oriented) should not freak out if copper fails to break above $3/lbs.

    Salida Capital, one of my personal favorite global macro investment firms, did some work a few months ago on copper with respect to Chinese buying patterns.  They argued that, “China’s import pattern over 2004–09 also indicates a noticeable price sensitivity, although the key level appears to be US$3.00/lb. While that price is above today’s level, we would note that the current supply/demand situation is markedly different than in recent years. As such, we would not be surprised if China’s discretionary price level has been lowered as a result. After all, the country knows full well it faces a buyers’ market — and it is the only major buyer.”

    http://www.salidacapital.com/admin/media/uploadedFiles/SalidaCapital_CautiousOnCopper...ForNow_Jun_25_2009.pdf






    Presently, copper prices are just under $3/lbs. which makes this analysis extremely relevant.  If Salida is correct in their assessment, Chinese copper imports might begin to slow until the price of copper corrects a bit.  Although, imports have remained extremely robust and so long as relatively decent importing continues copper companies should be poised to do very well–even if the price of copper can’t crack $3/lbs.

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    Tags: copper, macro, china
    Oct 20 09:46 am | Link | Comment!
  • Global Macro Call: Long Uranium and Nuclear/Power Engineering

     

    Macroeconomic themes play an essential role in my investment decisions. Global warming, whether you believe it or not, will play an increasing role in economics/politics in the coming decades.
     
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    Aug 17 09:46 am | Link | Comment!
  • Global Macro Call - Short Volatility

     

    Global Macro Forecast – Short Volatility
     
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    Tags: VXZ, ETV, SPY
    Jun 17 02:23 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Global Macro Clues to the Future

     

    In an interesting roundtable discussion led by swissHEDGE featuring a managing director of D.E. Shaw, CEO of Pequot Capital Management, and the CEO of Marshall Wace LLP, some very interesting insights were given regarding the future outlook for investments. They were asked if they believe that the market has bottomed and how they see future quarters playing out. The CEO of Pequot Capital Management responded by saying, “I think the global economy is in for an extended period of very slow growth. The odds are that the market has bottomed, but nothing is certain as we unwind almost two decades of irresponsibly increasing leverage.” The CEO of Marshall Wace LLP continued on by saying, “This is not an inventory-based recession or an adjustment after overheating. It is a balance sheet recession; and the worst such recession since the 1930s. Given the level of indebtedness, notably in the US, the balance sheet work out will take a number of years and could lead to sub-trend growth for up to a decade. Any sign of recovery will be met with government retrenchment as they seek to restore some order to their finances. Against this background, markets are likely to trend sideways, with potential bouts of weakness, linked both to disappointments about growth and concerns about currency stability. In contrast to the developed world, Asian economies are generally in good shape and China in particular should be in a position to continue acting as a locomotive. Most of the growth in the global economy in the next few years will come from Asia and developing economies and this should be reflected in the relative performance of prices and stock markets.”
     
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    Jun 16 08:48 am | Link | Comment!
  • Global Macro Trade Cont'd-Long Oil E&P Companies

    In the last post I wrote on SA, I wrote 3 fundamental reasons to be long oil E&P stocks.&n... I have an update to that post. 

    Today, June 11th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) "raised its 2009 world oil demand estimate for the first time in nine months but cautioned that the move does not necessary point to the start of a global economic recovery.
    In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA adjusted its 2009 demand
    forecast up 120,000 b/d as a result of stronger-than-expected OECD data from
    the first quarter of the year."
     

    http://www.platts.com/...

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    Jun 11 04:03 pm | Link | Comment!
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