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Daniel R Moore

 
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PRO Articles
PRO articles cover stocks that fly under most investors' radar screens.
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II- Nightmare Turning Into Reality
     • Wed, Aug. 13 SD, SDT, SDR 18 Comments

    Summary

    • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II announced a quarterly distribution on July 31st of $0.486 for common unit holders.
    • Distributable income for the quarter was $18.1M, which on a fully diluted per unit basis was below threshold, so subordinated units received $0.00 per unit.
    • Production for the quarter continued to decrease sharply at 392 MBOE, far below the year earlier level of 651 MBOE.
    • Risk remains high that proven reserves currently reported by the Trust are lower than presently represented in public financial documents.
    • Based on the considered riskiness of current estimates of proven reserves and expected future oil and gas price levels, the current Trust market price level is considered overvalued.
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Solid Results, Fairly Valued
     • Wed, Aug. 6 SD, PER 35 Comments

    Summary

    • SandRidge Permian Trust announced a quarterly distribution on July 31st of $0.632 for common unit holders.
    • Distributable income for the quarter was $30.6M, which on a fully diluted per unit basis was below threshold, so subordinated units received only $0.432 per unit.
    • Production for the quarter was in-line with previous models published at 382 MBOE, virtually flat year over year reflecting drilling activity that has replaced production from declining older wells.
    • Trust drilling is expected to complete by the end of the 4th quarter 2014.
    • The August 1st Trust market price level of $12.66 is considered fair and implies a 9% rate of return to investors through Trust termination in 2031.
  • ECA Marcellus Trust I - Still An Expensive Natural Gas Pure Play
       • Fri, Apr. 4 ECT 22 Comments

    Summary

    • ECT units current trade at a 1.74 multiple of the 12/31/2013 PV-10, comparatively high to industry peers.
    • Supportive natural gas derivative contracts expired in March 2014, a negative for distributions beginning in August 2014.
    • A model of expected future distributable Trust income shows the current unit traded value is unrealistically high relative to market risk.
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: PV-10 Reflects Another Mississippian Nightmare In The Making
       • Thu, Mar. 20 SD, SDT, SDR 48 Comments

    Summary

    • SDR recorded a 3338 MBOE downward adjustment (13.2%) to proven reserves in the latest PV-10 due to well performance issues.
    • PV-10 per unit fell to $7.62 at year 2012, a 43.6% decline from the April 2012 IPO standard measure.
    • Downward trajectory of PV-10 revision is highly correlated with (SDT) proven reserve historical results (SDT is the sister Trust of SDR which went IPO in April 2011).
    • Recommended Target Valuation Lowered to $7 per unit, in-line with $6 SDT Target.
  • Chesapeake Granite Wash PV-10 Update - Disaster Continues
       • Tue, Mar. 18 CHK, CHKR 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Newly published 12/31/2013 PV-10 shows an additional 6,220 MBOE reduction due to well performance (22% Year-over-Year).
    • Overall the Trust has seen an impairment of 36.9% of proven reserves due to well performance issues.
    • Closing price of $11 per unit on 3/14/2014 is 1.62 times the updated PV-10 value of $6.72; shares are considered grossly overvalued given continued high risk.
  • SandRidge Permian Trust- Ugly Updated PV-10 Priced In?
       • Fri, Mar. 7 CHK, CHKR, SD 26 Comments

    Summary

    • PV-10 published on 2/28/2013 showed 2,192 MBOE downward revision in reserves - a greater than 10% drop relative to IPO levels.
    • Energy price curve upward move recently off-setting negative reserve revisions.
    • Price Target lowered to $12 per unit; upside possible if Forward Oil Price Curve breaks out and is sustained above $100 per barrel contrary to current market view.
  • SandRidge Permian Trust- Q4'13 Results Show Risk And Reward
       • Fri, Feb. 7 DIA, SD, PER 41 Comments
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Third Quarter Results Down, Units Oversold
       • Nov. 12, 2013 SD, SDR 50 Comments
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Third Quarter Results Show Solid Performance
       • Nov. 12, 2013 SD, PER 22 Comments
  • Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust Q3 Results - Expect Pain To Continue
       • Nov. 11, 2013 CHK, CHKR 17 Comments
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I - Small Improvement, Under-Performance Continues
       • Aug. 5, 2013 SD, SDT 10 Comments
  • Fifth Street Finance - Caught In The Fed's Zero Interest Rate Web
       • Apr. 9, 2013 PNNT, PSEC, FSC 14 Comments
  • PennantPark Investment - An Irrational Reach For Yield
       • Apr. 4, 2013 FSC, PSEC, PNNT 54 Comments