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Daniel R Moore

 
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  • S&P 500 Up 20% In 2014? Re-Live The Bubbling 1990s [View article]
    You make a very good point. I fully agree that the fixed income section of a portfolio is not for trading through time, it is for accumulating sound, long-term cash flow.
    Dec 5 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Up 20% In 2014? Re-Live The Bubbling 1990s [View article]
    I don't normally plug my book in a blog reply since I write these articles in an attempt to put accurate information in the market, not for publicity. But I have studied your question in detail, and have applied a whole segment of the book (Theory of Financial Relativity) to signals that have worked in the past. The analysis covers 14 corrections since 1946 - not intra year pullbacks, actual corrections. Situations do vary through time slightly, but there is a common core of signals that always seem to work. As time progresses I am likely to use the information in articles, but presently most of the indicators are not hot. The one area that I am most interested in right now is the changing dynamics in the long-term interest rate market 5yr, 10yr, 30yr relative to riskier credit. The short end of the market is pegged, and the signals are mute. The dynamic of raising rates from the zero bound is also discussed at length in the book.

    The book is available on Amazon and can be found by using the link on this page or my author page. Since you asked the question, if you, (or anyone who reads this comment) simply provide me your e-mail address via a direct message on this web-site, I will be happy to make an e-book copy available to you for free via a dropbox file transfer (you will need the dropbox app on your computer or tablet to access the file folder). I have a version available for the Kindle or an open standard epub version that can be opened by any e-reader such as I-Books for the IPAD.
    Dec 4 05:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Third Quarter Results Down, Units Oversold [View article]
    Sorry, I have not come across any additional sources.
    Dec 2 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - What Are Investors Afraid Of Now? [View article]
    I think the data is showing that the paper market for natural resources like oil and gold increases price swings - in both directions. There is good academic research about the oil spike in 2008 which point to 250 billion in excess futures contract exposure which led to the oil price spike. Note, the gold market did not follow that advance, and held its price point at around 800 - 900 per ounce as the stock market and oil were crashing down. Likewise, the gold market raced out in 2011 and 2012, and sales of holdings by hedge funds, particularly John Paulson, can be linked to the steep sell-off earlier this year. In this case, oil did not follow the advance upward in gold. The only assets left out on the expensive end of the curve that I see currently are U.S. Stocks and Treasuries. I am not saying these assets necessarily will tank, and I have repeatedly noted in articles that most of the signals that usually accompany a major correction remain benign. However, it appears that over the intermediate term that the market will change, and gold seems to be one asset that is already properly priced for the adjustment process.
    Nov 27 09:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - What Are Investors Afraid Of Now? [View article]
    I am tracking the results of fracking in many of the Trusts that I write analytical pieces about. The results after several years have not met expectations, and in fact are far below. However, it might be argued that I am not tracking the cream of the crop. Regardless, the oversupply in the market is in natural gas, and fracking is the contributing factor. I am not presently seeing a similar, sustainable trend toward oversupply of crude oil, and expect the emerging markets to continue increasing demand through time faster than supply can grow.

    Thanks for the heads up about the NY Times article. I read an interesting article in the WSJ a couple of days ago about Prince Alwaleed bin Talalal.

    http://on.wsj.com/1gfuJQS
    Nov 26 01:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Third Quarter Results Show Solid Performance [View article]
    I don't have any information about the inside buying of these shares, but I do watch the price level that large share exchanges have taken place over time, and they have historically been around the $13.50 to $14.00 mark. I would read it as a sign of confidence in the price around the $14.10 level you mention.
    Nov 20 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust Q3 Results - Expect Pain To Continue [View article]
    There was a wave of selling ex-dividend across the entire group, which is generally not a good sign economically. Seems to be a liquidity drain and run for cover drill. Fundamentally I trust the model I use, and think it is a buy at these levels. That said, there is no reason to catch a falling knife until a floor is put in place. What is more interesting to me is what it may be saying about the broader market, not just oil trusts.
    Nov 20 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust I - Q3'13 Results Poor, Risk Elevated [View article]
    Looks like the shorts are having a field day. Unless someone has insider info on a reserve report, the units are way oversold fundamentally.
    Nov 19 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Mississippian Trust II: Third Quarter Results Down, Units Oversold [View article]
    The model I used to create the valuation shows steep declines in production 3rd and 4th quarter next year, and significant production declines in 2015. I think the production curve is reasonably accurate. The model only assumes threshold level distributions to common unit holders, and a steep drop once subordination ends based on the price level and production volumes shown in the article. Any write-down in reserves beyond current levels remains a risk; but production has tracked to the reductions made in the last PV-10.
    Nov 15 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Third Quarter Results Show Solid Performance [View article]
    You are correct, there is an adjustment upward from the time value of money which since we are in the 3rd quarter of the year is growing and makes the adjusted PV-10 slightly better.
    Nov 15 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust Q3 Results - Expect Pain To Continue [View article]
    Bill,

    The share count number you are following probably is fully diluted (47MM) versus common units only (35MM). Currently there are technically only 35MM shares on the market; the rest are held by Chesapeake Energy and are not traded. Once the subs conversion occurs, there will be 25% more shares on the market.

    I assume the well pressures are the responsibility of operator - Chesapeake Energy. The only independent verification that I am aware of is when a new PV-10 is released - March '14 is the next publication date.

    I think the well pressure issue is confined to "some of the wells"; however, it is not clear how bad it will be for the remaining wells to be drilled; additionally, it is not clear what the long-tail impact of lower well pressure on the front-end is going to mean for reserve recovery. Chesapeake Energy has an incentive to boost the price of the Trust because as they point out in the earnings call - they have a substantial economic interest in the property. If there is anything going on, it would be continuing to be overly optimistic about the prospects for the Trust. It would be interesting to know if Chesapeake is accumulating common shares to boost the price; however, based on the track record of the results and the foolish structure of the derivative contract in place, it seems a foolish bet unless they truly are as you say - depressing the price to buy on the cheap.
    Nov 13 07:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Third Quarter Results Show Solid Performance [View article]
    I agree with you. The reserve report from PER will be important information.
    Nov 13 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Third Quarter Results Show Solid Performance [View article]
    Chris,

    I do not presently have any recommendations on any other Nat Gas royalty trusts at the present time.

    Dan
    Nov 13 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Third Quarter Results Show Solid Performance [View article]
    I am an avid follower of history, and almost every major move up in oil since the early 70's Arab oil embargo has a conflict that can be traced back to Iran. The Iranian - U.S. relationship, no secret, is not a love fest. It was the Shah of Iran in the early 1970s that said, and I am paraphrasing a NY Times article, "you should pay more for our oil, 10 time more. From the early 1970s until 1980, the price per barrel of oil in dollars did rise by a factor of 10 - almost to the penny. It rose from about $3.50 per barrel to $39.50 per barrel. The Saudi's cut a deal the U.S., and the reversal of the prices in the 1980s were led by their actions, in direct conflict with Iran. Herein lies the primary source of the present conflict. I see the present foreign policy moves as an attempt to keep a similar scenario from being unleashed. The negotiations that broke down this past weekend may bear short-term fruit; and may temporarily depress prices if they actually get economic sanctions removed. But I do not expect this force to go away. And when the Saudi's feel the U.S. monetary policy is out of control - which oddly enough it is looking more and more Nixonian - I expect the conflict to resurface. In any case, prices of oil plummeting, or even going lower than $90 for any lengthy time period appear to be a very low probability.
    Nov 13 07:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Third Quarter Results Show Solid Performance [View article]
    From my analysis, oil price is much more a foreign policy game, and less a consumption / supply demand driven market. The Saudi's and OPEC continue to control the world price of oil. Demand from other parts of the world will continue to grow, and since oil is priced in dollars, the price will rise. Any hint of inflation in this country which is not met with higher interest rates from the Fed, and OPEC will signal through oil prices that they are not happy. Eventually the wildcard, Iran, may be the negative force that drives oil prices up, when everyone was expecting the opposite. I like oil as a hedge against these risks, and against the eroding dollar policies. I cannot predict the future, but I can buy insurance against known risks.
    Nov 12 11:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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