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Daniel Radakovich

 
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  • POSCO: Short-Term Risks Open Up Opportunity For Long-Term Investment [View article]
    Not sure you have much margin of safety above $70, but at today's prices, there is.

    The re-focus on maintaining competitive and technological advances in steel will benefit Posco greatly, which means disposing and spinning off non-core assets.

    Long term, this could be a very good investment.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: A True Value Investment Opportunity [View article]
    $35 to $28?

    I'd say its even more of a bargain.

    The oil sands is right underneath and not going anywhere. No land acquisition costs and operating costs per barrel are below $40 a barrel. They can sustain and even increase production with a cut back in capital expenditures, but those projects take years to come to fruition, so I doubt they will make a hastily move since they have already been disciplined with their capital .
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: A True Value Investment Opportunity [View article]
    If production volumes increase 6-8% per year it should be a good investment regardless of oil prices. If oil prices remain above 80 or 90, then it can be a fantastic investment. Why? High cost operations is like adding leverage, when prices fall, margins fall dramatically, but when prices rise like oil, which I believe they should, then margins and income should increase big time. What I did with 2019 is put a production guidance and $90 brent oil price and what the value of the company is likely to be around, which I figure is $50 a share. Today it is selling for $28. The long term reserves and long term reservoir resource base are valuable.

    The point I am trying to make is the business is selling for nearly 50 cents today, that tomorrow ( few years) should be worth at least a $1.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron Falls With Oil Prices Despite Having Virtually No Oil Exposure [View article]
    Agreed and love the disclosure.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Never Let A Good Bear Market Go To Waste: Energy Gems Amidst The Rubble [View article]
    The author makes good points, but dig deeper if you really want to find some value. and the worse it gets, the lower the prices will be, so be patient, and do your research. Don't be afraid of equity stubs or high cost operations, they can pay off big time if they have a high probability of surviving the down turn and grow the next few years.
    Dec 13, 2014. 01:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Acquisition Likely To Negatively Impact Revolver [View article]
    True and if they need to go back to the golf, they can. Hercules would be the one hurt the most if PGN needed to shfit assets, in my opinion. Plus, the two high spec acqusitions are kinda where the industry is going. The north sea offers a lot of opportunity.
    Dec 13, 2014. 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Acquisition Likely To Negatively Impact Revolver [View article]
    What's the cash flow? If they have standard rigs and are not going to be buying any new ones for a couple of years, then wouldn't the deprecation expense free up some cash, minus related capital needed to sustain the rigs?

    Also a lot of these oil rig companies are becoming equity stubs. There is a lot of potential for gains if the market turns around in a couple of years and if you avoid the ones in serious distress.
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Be Fooled By IBM Cloud Contract Announcements [View article]
    Those are options, still owns over 130k shares.
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Be Fooled By IBM Cloud Contract Announcements [View article]
    Amazon has 75% of the market, IBM is going after its legacy clients for hybrid clouds, which will offset some loss of traditional revenue. Don't be fooled, there are more insightful articles out there. With facts.
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy Shares Are Still Overvalued [View article]
    I disagree with this analysis and present a different case here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 2, 2014. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy Shares Are Still Overvalued [View article]
    Not Buffett, but one of his investing lieutenants.
    Dec 2, 2014. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing Doesn't Work: Intel And Philip Morris Edition [View article]
    He made several good points, and if EPS figures and revenues are not working, just maybe, there are other valuation metrics out there to explain the market valuations. I would start with cash earnings and free cash flow. Remember, subtract growth capital from sustaining capital and you have a different picture of Intel.
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: A Bargain At The Current Price [View article]
    Fred, not sure exactly what the consensus view is, but I have a feeling it is around oil and gas capital ex, nuclear project cost overruns, a decline in earnings, which is materially different than what management has projected, and possibly cash flow concerns.

    But just look at the facts and business results and I'm sure you can make a good estimate of the value of the company over the next few years.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: A Bargain At The Current Price [View article]
    That article was a little to much, in the end the max hit on earnings would be about $3 a share.

    ...Any less than that would be because of the shared liability with Westinghouse.
    Nov 24, 2014. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fluor: Industrial Construction Company Getting Rave Reviews [View article]
    Well, I would argue CBI's return on capital will surely benefit going forward and the bear case for fixed cost projects is highly unlikely and should greatly offset cost-plus contracts used throughout the recession, which are stuck being lower margin. Higher margin projects and direct hire labor contracts are well adjusted for future labor inflation, management of both Fluror and CBI do good job of making these long term adjustments when entering into contracts. The weighted average capital cost also seems wrong and I'm not sure that represents a true source of capital used by these businesses. I would suggest digging a little deeper and understanding the cash flow model of these businesses as well.
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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