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Daniel Sckolnik

 
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  • Go Long Apple, Short The Eurozone [View article]
    Meant to say:

    BTW, I spend a fair amount of time over there, and it becomes clear upon even a cursory examination that the German government, which tries to make up for its past transgressions by being extremely generous to immigrants, who are there in ever-increasing numbers for precisely this reason, is experiencing a heavy economic burden from this largess, and it won't go away in the foreseeable future.
    Mar 26 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Apple, Short The Eurozone [View article]
    Sure, 480 would mean that the gap created back at the end of February has been filled. But that's less than 4% off. Apple historically moves in larger segments then that, in either direction. Surprisingly, 500 has not served as a psychological barrier in the past. If it gets close to that point, I see a push up to 525.

    The catalyst? The next earnings report, probably in April, coupled with updates on the next product lauch, whatever they end up announcing.
    Mar 26 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Apple, Short The Eurozone [View article]
    Btbriant,

    I appreciate you taking the time to read my article.

    Germany's GDP decreased by 0.6 percent for Q4 2012. March's IFO business climate index fell way short of consensus expectations. Not signs of an uptrending economy.

    Realize, too, that a key fundamental problem with the Eurozone, at least at this point, is that the initial situation where the Northern countries benefited by selling goods and services to their poorer neighbors on credit can no longer be recreated. Germany's economy isn't in a vacuum, and the burden of continually propping up the PIIGS will eventually catch up.

    Germany simply can't afford to let the inevitable contagion effect occur should either Cyprus, Portugal, etc leave the Eurozone. A large part of its economy is in the banking sector, obviously, and defaulting creditors such as the PIIGS would cause a strong shock to its system.

    BTW, I spend a fair amount of time over there, and it becomes clear upon even a cursory examination that the German government, which tries to make up for its past transgressions by being extremely generous to immigrants, who are there in ever-increasing numbers for precisely this reason, is becoming a heavy economic burden, and it won't go away in the foreseeable future.
    Mar 26 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Apple, Short The Eurozone [View article]
    David Levner,

    As mentioned in my article, the EZU serves as a good proxy for the Eurozone equity market, and therefore would suffice as the vehicle for the short part of this pairs equation, as obvioulsy the European bourses would be directly impacted upon a negative regional event.

    Personally, I would use options for optimum leverage and minimum capital outlay, buying at-the-money puts two or three months out.
    Mar 25 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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