Daniel Sermersheim

Another Macroshares Oil Arbitrage Opportunity

rwollney1

I think you have the definition of arbitrage wrong. I'm sure you looked it up somewhere, but this is for sure arbitrage. Your definition is too narrow. Arbitrage, in general, is playing both sides, both short and long, of a position, in order to take advantage of a spread that the arbiter thinks is to wide.

Will Some Solar Companies Face a Cash Crunch?

Well I'll just chime in to say that they call current assets current because they can be used in the next three months. If accounts receivable is large, its because they are selling product. Some companies always operate with a low cash level. Take CAT for example. One would not consider CAT a high risk proposition, especially in the long run. However, if we use the "Envoy theory of investing" we would never ever consider buying CAT. CAT's receivables stood at $9 billion at the end of last quarter, versus $777 million in cash. With $48 billion in total liabilities, the Envoy theory would say CAT should have went under already. But companies do not need much cash to function, they need current assets higher than current liabilities. What money do we have and is coming in during the next three months, versus what we have going out. Its not about what is in the bank at the moment.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Thank you much for putting these together everyday. Saves me the time and I enjoy the commentary.

Buying Broadwind on GE, Gamesa Wind Energy Deals

Well I get my vindication today. BWEN gets the Cramer bump and Cramer talks it up as the best in wind and the only in wind. He says he can't say it on TV, but he knows most of his TV watchers are also following him online.

For disclosure, I bought some at 10.35 and sold those shares at 13.80. I also bought some at 10.95 which I still have and I bought a bunch yesterday at 13.90 and 14 based on the double bottom with handle base. I got lucky and got the Cramer bump today, but it would have happened eventually.

Gold's Just Getting Started - Barron's Interview

There are also uses of gold for those of you saying that all the gold is still available as a traded commodity. For one, gold goes into computers, paints, and other products where the gold is not readily recoverable. On the whole, however, the use of silver is much more abundant than gold.

Alloy Steel International: Explosive Growth at a Reasonable Price

Though I am not the author of the article, I think I can explain the decline. The stock dropped on earnings news. This was an ill conceived sell off by investors. The selloff was due to lackluster earnings growth on the bottom line. This lack of growth is due entirely to the fact the company had to pain income taxes in this year's first quarter, where as in the previous year there were no income taxes. In the long run the sellers are going to miss out, but in the short run they'll remember the lackluster earnings growth and stay away.

Financials Offer Patient Bulls Many Opportunities

I agree there are some great plays out there, especially for conservative type investors. I bought AINV last week at 14.82 and it is looking good. I also own PCAP with a very nice yield on it also. A lot of stocks were taken down on the interest rate and credit scare, but some were done so very unjustly. PCAP, for example, rates their credit risk each quarter on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being the best 5 the worst. They have never said they even have a 4 or 5 so the stock selling off on credit risk is completely unfounded. Oh well it gave me an opportunity to add at a cheap price and get a great dividend.

Zynex Medical: Rapidly Growing Smallcap

My largest holding is TCCO, which I bought in the 5.75-6.30 range. I'm also in BRK.B at $4450, PCAP and various prices for a year and a half now, PYTO and NTRZ. I hold NTRZ and PYTO at a loss.

NutraCea Q2 Earnings Preview: Bump or Crater in the Road?

jeisen,

It is always disappointing when a company gives a revenue forecast ($50 million in this case) and then says to lower the expectations in a subsequent conference call. The company seems to have some problems with supply and it looks to be another 9 months or so until they really get to a steady flow of rice bran. This steady flow hinges on their Indonesia and Asian operations, which have two rice crops a year versus one in the U.S. The 2Q and it appears the 3Q are going to be the weak quarters while the first and fourth quarter are going to be higher due to the timing of the rice harvest in the U.S.

The company had approximately $3 million in one time expenses in the second quarter related to Vital Living acquisition, relocating headquarters, etc.... Without this the 2nd quarter earnings would have been nice, but the investors will look the other way because of the downward revision of sales guidance.

Daniel

NutraCea Q2 Earnings Preview: Bump or Crater in the Road?

This is feraldo, author of bbstockinfo.com
I have been long NTRZ since Oct 4, 2006 at 1.46 and therefore have followed the company diligently. I like your write up of NTRZ, but there is one thing I would like to add. In your article, you lump all the production together, as if all the production were the same. In reality there are three different levels of NTRZ production.

First there are the pellets. The pellets were made possible by the pelletizing equipment purchased in the second quarter. This type of product is ready to go and can be mixed in with equine feed or used stand alone.

Then there is the "Phase I" SRB. The phase I SRB is not a finished product, but is an additive to finished products made by NTRZ customers. This SRB is mixed in with other products or further processed by the NTRZ customer base. This is a lower margin, higher volume product. The Louisiana expansion from 10,000 to 40,000 annual tons was for phase I production.

The last form of NTRZ product is what the company calls phase II. The phase II product is a much higher margin product and its also lower volume. Phase II is a finished product that is used immediately by the customer, without further processing. The Dillon Montana expansion to 2,700 tons was a phase II expansion.

This supports what the company said during its first quarter conference call. "We want our customers to want, and need the product. We want them to need it made the way we make it." So the objective for the company is to produce SRB in as many forms as possible and do as much as of the processing as they can to get a larger chunk of revenue per ton of SRB.

Lastly, the seasonality of the product must be discussed. The company will not always be at full capacity, since rice bran is not always available. The company is dependent upon deliveries of rice to process product, so there will simply be some days or weeks where no new rice bran will be coming in as raw materials.

Thanks for the article
feraldo