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Daniel Weidelich  

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  • Tesla Asymmetry - Part 5 [View article]
    Of course Glenn, well deserved. I really enjoy reading your commentary.

    That is true, I did have an allotment for a "black swan" type situation, but it complicated the article too much for SA -- so I opted just to say "weighted-average downside scenario", assuming readers have parameters for portfolio diversification (I'm recognizing now, I should have emphasized that more). If I wrote this over, I'd call it an "expected" floor. Even if not 100% bullet proof, it's very substantial on average (with a small variance imo), and so it justifies a pretty fat portfolio position.

    I didn't mention this -- but something tells me Tesla is "too 'green' to fail"... If the private capital markets won't support an emergency capital raise - the American government will. Not to mention guys like Larry Page: "I would rather give my billions to Elon Musk than to charity"
    Apr 2, 2015. 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Asymmetry - Part 5 [View article]
    @robiniv "why was it again you're bullish about this overpriced stock that's been on a down trend for over 6 months now?"

    Downtrend is your friend :) Price and value are not the same thing... Reread this article, my bio, former articles -- all of which share a similar theme if you actually wanna grok me, as well as the topic at hand.
    Apr 1, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Asymmetry - Part 5 [View article]
    Doesn't really matter -- in fact, I'm glad to get it out prior. Expectations have already been lowered (hence the decline in stock price). Tesla hate is here now. Doubtful it remains much longer.
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Asymmetry - Part 5 [View article]
    If you'll note, 'Deciding When To Short Tesla' was my only non-bullish article published on a day of extraordinary exuberance (the first of its double peak last year, ~$265). As you can see in the disclosure, I was taking my money off the table at that time :)

    Do you think I regret that line? What was your probability weighting of sub-50 dollar oil 13 months ago?
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Asymmetry - Part 5 [View article]
    Another one of those guys with entrenched personal-identity and expertise in the old auto industry. Was not surprised to see that he's not letting go of historical precedent -- a major pitfall of the whole market over the last several years.
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List At $5: Poised For A Buyout, A Short-Squeeze And A January Effect Rally [View article]
    I think you're right here. Lots of hate. Lots of optionality. Really great risk/reward. Thanks.
    Dec 15, 2014. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is TripAdvisor Becoming A Big Threat To OTAs? [View article]
    Thanks for your insight Brian! I like TripAdvisor's leverage at the right end of the value chain.
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Left Holding The Bag: A Kate Spade, Michael Kors Pair Trade [View article]
    dancing diva, you completely misunderstand my use of the word 'fickle'. The fact that you bring up "metrics" (I assume you mean price to earnings/sales/book multiples)...invalidates your rejection of the KORS/COH comparison -- because I address that in an emphatic way. To reiterate:

    KORS looked extremely expensive next to COH last year. It's about sustainability of intangible brand cache -- later represented in margins, followed by sales, and then profitability for these types of brands that take over the mind-share of the global consumer for a time.... Until the taste makers get sick of the old trend, they started, enough to start a new one....
    Aug 22, 2014. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    I don't read articles written about Tesla anymore -- the comments/criticism by Randy, Glenn, and aron is the most honest, succinct, often entertaining, and insightful information about this obscenely important company, on the world wide web.

    Aug 19, 2014. 01:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors to go open source with Supercharger network [View news story]
    Great insight as always, Randy. Thanks.
    Jun 12, 2014. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Return To The Firing Line: Revisiting Tesla [View article]

    Isn't it a tad embarrassing to consistently rehash the same arguments at every new Tesla price point? You still don't recognize that the word "fundamental" does incorporate intangible value... and that it is actually a necessity to quantify intangibles -- no matter how imprecise methods to do so must be... (investors are in the business of predicting the future after all...)

    Check back to the debate we had on my open letter to Prof. Damodaran from December:

    If you still think I'm wrong, you should be getting more and more comfortable re: shorting Tesla. When will you open your position?

    Mar 26, 2014. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciding When To Short Tesla - Part 4 [View article]
    Tales, I agree it's highly questionable. I don't take it as fair value -- I take it as a reasonable mark of over-valuation. Where short-selling a revolutionary company becomes worthwhile.
    Feb 27, 2014. 05:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Can Explain 96% Of Your Portfolio's Returns, Part 2 [View article]
    Glenn, so glad you're back!
    Jan 31, 2014. 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]

    Sorry this is very late. How would you incorporate enormous diversity of possible outcome into a stock price? (especially for a potentially paradigm shifting technology). Very interested to know your thoughts.

    Jan 2, 2014. 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]
    Your mind is too narrow. Good luck to you. And make sure you short Tesla if you believe everything you've said.
    Dec 23, 2013. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment