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Daniel Weidelich

 
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  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    I don't read articles written about Tesla anymore -- the comments/criticism by Randy, Glenn, and aron is the most honest, succinct, often entertaining, and insightful information about this obscenely important company, on the world wide web.


    DW
    Aug 19 01:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors to go open source with Supercharger network [View news story]
    Great insight as always, Randy. Thanks.
    Jun 12 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Return To The Firing Line: Revisiting Tesla [View article]
    Nigel,

    Isn't it a tad embarrassing to consistently rehash the same arguments at every new Tesla price point? You still don't recognize that the word "fundamental" does incorporate intangible value... and that it is actually a necessity to quantify intangibles -- no matter how imprecise methods to do so must be... (investors are in the business of predicting the future after all...)

    Check back to the debate we had on my open letter to Prof. Damodaran from December: http://seekingalpha.co...

    If you still think I'm wrong, you should be getting more and more comfortable re: shorting Tesla. When will you open your position?


    Dan
    Mar 26 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciding When To Short Tesla - Part 4 [View article]
    Tales, I agree it's highly questionable. I don't take it as fair value -- I take it as a reasonable mark of over-valuation. Where short-selling a revolutionary company becomes worthwhile.
    Feb 27 05:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Can Explain 96% Of Your Portfolio's Returns, Part 2 [View article]
    Glenn, so glad you're back!
    Jan 31 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]
    Dampflok,

    Sorry this is very late. How would you incorporate enormous diversity of possible outcome into a stock price? (especially for a potentially paradigm shifting technology). Very interested to know your thoughts.

    Daniel
    Jan 2 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]
    Your mind is too narrow. Good luck to you. And make sure you short Tesla if you believe everything you've said.
    Dec 23 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]
    " "I see qualitative factors as far more than just colour and commentary (they're integral for arriving at accurate future numbers)" - This type of statement drives me crazy. You're saying a qualitative factor is critical to determining a quantitative value. I then ask to outline your steps of quantifying the qualitative and you reply by stating that it's a form of "art." "

    ...It drives you crazy, because Tesla's future is naturally less precise and quantifiable than many other businesses. But this does not at all make it reasonable to value the company from a narrow point of view... Hence the creative valuation method... and the extreme diversity of scenarios. Why were quants so wrong a year ago? (even $67 forces a huge concession of error)

    Not sure why you build a strawman/red herring by describing the market 8 years before I did. Clearly, the electric market will not have any sort of maturity in 7 years.

    If you don't follow my assumptions about long-run market cap, and long-run profitability... then I recommend you spend some time on that.

    Market cap incorporates market share AND profitability -- allowing us to take a broader perspective -- to see things as they really are. It's a bit of a cheat, but the assumption is not faulty, especially when we have already admitted a lack of precision. (if you can't admit this, you're just lying to yourself)
    Dec 23 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]
    I incorporate both -- but I see qualitative factors as far more than just colour and commentary (they're integral for arriving at accurate future numbers). I believe there is significantly more alpha hidden in the qualitatives...especially for disruptive businesses and industries being disrupted. So I've chosen my slant with far more reason than you give credit. Markets are too efficient where there is clarity of numbers.

    So one last challenge, if you think all of my assumptions are bogus in the charts of this article -- I'd love to hear what you think is more realistic for each scenario. Come back to me with your expected % size of the electric market and expectation of Tesla's profits as a % of that market in 2028 (or later if you like). You may also want to consider the buyout floor argument I emphasized in my 3rd Tesla article. Change the dilution numbers if you need to also.

    If you get $67, I'll be shocked, but at least we'll have seen eye to eye.
    Dec 22 07:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]
    I'm not a quant that's for sure. I'll gladly take a new title if analysts aren't allowed to use qualitative analysis... or creativity in a creative world.
    Dec 22 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]
    Beating the market is an art :)
    Dec 22 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]
    I did. And I stand by it. I also bought BlackBerry shares and calls 2 weeks ago. If you think you can just ignore 2028... I don't know what more to say. Not sure you grasp the breadth of the word 'fundamental'. Also, please show me where Tesla's brand value is highlighted on its balance sheet.

    To be frank with you...anything that is "testable, verifiable and proven" is entirely priced in. Spend some time on the efficient market hypothesis debate. The only reason EMH doesn't hold is because competitive landscapes evolve so rapidly that straight numbers can't come close to keeping up with them. Qualitative perception, cultural insight, knowledge of "irrational" human behavior, etc... are as important to investing well as economics and finance are... and I'm not just referring to understanding the way people act in financial markets... but ALL markets.

    The reason half of Tesla's share float was sold short one year ago at $30, was because a herd of conventional thinking investors decided it was OK to ignore the qualitative story...assigning virtually no value to it.

    Tesla is a special beast. I'd personally try and raise the $8 Billion to buy it at $67...never mind what the major automakers would do...
    Dec 20 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Safety In Disruption: A High-Level Tesla Valuation [View article]
    Nigel,

    You speak of asymmetry, but you don't reference the asymmetry I've pointed out in this article -- that I emphasize more strongly in a followup article written a week later:

    http://bit.ly/JPNOyp

    You also failed to notice and address the major flaw in Aswath's valuation that I based this article on.

    I would love to hear you speak about quantifying intangibles -- which is something that takes keen perception as much or more than it takes mathematics.
    Dec 20 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Brand Is Crown Jewel To Big Automakers [View article]
    Thanks. If you agree with my premise though, neither of those words need be spoken -- they simply aren't true if there is a sizable buyout floor. Until buy side analysts look down, and incorporate a buyout assumption into their models, we will continue to have a special situation here with Tesla :)
    Dec 10 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Brand Is Crown Jewel To Big Automakers [View article]
    More simply stated: there is more status to be gained from driving a Tesla, than any other vehicle on the planet. Disagree?
    Dec 10 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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