Avi, I was going to commend you on the 31.65 max retracement call in the comments below your last article, but you beat me to the punch with this article.
Frankly I've been a bit surprised silver has not been more volatile recently. The $8 range over 15 months defies the high beta mantra and coincides with your "not a risk asset" argument. Gold has been more predictable for me since peaking in August 2011. After falling below $1800 shortly after that level has been unattainable despite repeated analyst calls for imminent rallies and unwavering positive sentiment. It seems sentiment today is more positive on silver than gold.
Seemingly, as you've said time and time again, supposed correlations should be ignored and even gold and silver should be looked at as entirely different markets.
From my perspective there are too many prospective silver buyers in the $25-27 range for that level to act as a bottom. Therefore $28 (which we'll see next week) or $22 are the levels I'll be watching closely for a turn.
If, however, the US debt ceiling is held beyond 2 months from now and austerity becomes the way of the good ol' USA, sub $20 silver is almost assured as the country dashes for cash.
My condolences to you and your family, I'm sure your wife's spirit will live on in fond memory.
In an odd twist, Kinross Gold (KGC) flatly denies entering into any partnership or other deal with Southridge Enterprises (SRGE.PK), now or in the foreseeable future, two days after the penny stock announced a joint venture between the two companies. [View news story]
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
Enjoy the GDX dive into the close yesterday? Ready for another GDX dive today? Maybe you should try currency trading to recoup some losses in mining stocks. All the majors are down over the last 6 years while gold has tripled.
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
April 2011 was a silver frenzy. Maybe raised margin requirements took a little steam off the top of the rally, but when the buyers go all in the price peaks, period. It's no coincidence that the silver market internals and economic internals both currently suggest massive imminent selling.
250,000,000,000 people on the verge of liquidating their assets is a market moving event. Why would the market give panic sellers a good price? PMs aren't the only assets about to get a whole lot cheaper.
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
Hi Doug, The $50 American Eagle you refer to is worth $50 in exchange or $1700 for sale, meaning the gold is not what makes it money. With regards to customs and other points you're right about the powers that be. I just think it's important for investors to heavily consider their entry points into markets and realize that future inevitabilities are not always quite imminent. I'm no bond bull by the way, I think the days of the free lunch are ending.
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
I sold some silver in April 2011 but won't be anytime soon. My point to long term investors is that a MUCH better buying opportunity is quickly approaching.
I did cover one of my two mining shorts last week.
Silver: Will $28 Hold, Or Are We Going Down To $22? [View article]
Justin is creating a technical justification for his bullish opinion on fundamentals, something I did a few times when I first stumbled into the stock market. Sub $25 is "too good" an entry point? Are you kidding??!! When silver hit $10/oz in 2008 (after trading at $20 3 months prior) was the USD worth a third what it is today?
Nobody has been shaken out of silver besides very low conviction buyers of the $40+ breakout 18+ months ago. My deduction is that low 20s or lower is a must before we make new highs.
For the manipulation crowd: JPM needs sellers to cover their shorts and you'll be selling at $16 rather than $30. I think we go to $14 if it's an abrupt bottom, but with a little taste of austerity in the good ol USA to reinflate confidence in uncle Buck sub $25 silver could last a while (even years).
Thanks as always Avi, you're one of the few traders who provides accurate EW analysis and have helped me improve my market reading ability.
$20 Silver, $1,400 Gold Coming In Market 'Flush' [View article]
Price is not an opinion. There are no mispricings but there are predictable changes in price. Avi Gilburt has written some excellent articles on silver recently, in which he discusses all that matters in any market- sentiment.
Sentiment is reflected in price and can be studied via charts. As far as I'm concerned, the best market analysis is shared here: http://bit.ly/VqEWTo
Inflationary monetary policy under extremely deflationary fiscal/macro circumstances may result in inflation or deflation, depending on an endless number of factors. Those factors collectively determine sentiment.
$20 Silver, $1,400 Gold Coming In Market 'Flush' [View article]
No I don't take the stats at face value, but what difference does that make? Why must someone be a "deflationist or inflationist?" Guys like Schiff root for inflation, you seem to be doing the same.
Gold and silver trade in markets which incur price fluctuations. There are times to buy and times to sell.
Eric Sprott: I Think We Are In For A Shortage Of Physical Gold [View article]
First off, BRK companies such as The Pampered Chef, Coca Cola and others in no way provide necessities. Even utilities thrive on discretionary consumption, which will disappear in a hyperinflationary scenario. Input costs will skyrocket and consumers won't have the capital to keep up. Margins will get killed while demand disappears. It amazes me that people see stocks as hyperinflation protection. Gold, silver, oil, water and farmland- period.
Why Gold And Silver Prices Are Declining Along With The Dollar [View article]
I don't agree one is more rigged than the other. Propping up the profits and stock prices of public corporations has been our national agenda since the 1980s. The S&P 500 has been systematically sold to the American public at obnoxious valuations via accounting fraud and the corporate takeover of DC.
Rigging is rigging and, as Doug states in the article, the markets in which we invest are MADE. The real question is: Will the DJIA and the price of an ounce of gold meet at $1,000, $5,000 or $50,000?
Excellent article and interesting commentary, thanks Doug and NLO.
Is $22 Silver Possible? [View article]
I was going to commend you on the 31.65 max retracement call in the comments below your last article, but you beat me to the punch with this article.
Frankly I've been a bit surprised silver has not been more volatile recently. The $8 range over 15 months defies the high beta mantra and coincides with your "not a risk asset" argument. Gold has been more predictable for me since peaking in August 2011. After falling below $1800 shortly after that level has been unattainable despite repeated analyst calls for imminent rallies and unwavering positive sentiment. It seems sentiment today is more positive on silver than gold.
Seemingly, as you've said time and time again, supposed correlations should be ignored and even gold and silver should be looked at as entirely different markets.
From my perspective there are too many prospective silver buyers in the $25-27 range for that level to act as a bottom. Therefore $28 (which we'll see next week) or $22 are the levels I'll be watching closely for a turn.
If, however, the US debt ceiling is held beyond 2 months from now and austerity becomes the way of the good ol' USA, sub $20 silver is almost assured as the country dashes for cash.
My condolences to you and your family, I'm sure your wife's spirit will live on in fond memory.
All the best
In an odd twist, Kinross Gold (KGC) flatly denies entering into any partnership or other deal with Southridge Enterprises (SRGE.PK), now or in the foreseeable future, two days after the penny stock announced a joint venture between the two companies. [View news story]
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
250,000,000,000 people on the verge of liquidating their assets is a market moving event. Why would the market give panic sellers a good price? PMs aren't the only assets about to get a whole lot cheaper.
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
The $50 American Eagle you refer to is worth $50 in exchange or $1700 for sale, meaning the gold is not what makes it money. With regards to customs and other points you're right about the powers that be. I just think it's important for investors to heavily consider their entry points into markets and realize that future inevitabilities are not always quite imminent. I'm no bond bull by the way, I think the days of the free lunch are ending.
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
I did cover one of my two mining shorts last week.
All the best
Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
Silver: Will $28 Hold, Or Are We Going Down To $22? [View article]
Nobody has been shaken out of silver besides very low conviction buyers of the $40+ breakout 18+ months ago. My deduction is that low 20s or lower is a must before we make new highs.
For the manipulation crowd: JPM needs sellers to cover their shorts and you'll be selling at $16 rather than $30. I think we go to $14 if it's an abrupt bottom, but with a little taste of austerity in the good ol USA to reinflate confidence in uncle Buck sub $25 silver could last a while (even years).
Thanks as always Avi, you're one of the few traders who provides accurate EW analysis and have helped me improve my market reading ability.
$20 Silver, $1,400 Gold Coming In Market 'Flush' [View article]
Sentiment is reflected in price and can be studied via charts. As far as I'm concerned, the best market analysis is shared here: http://bit.ly/VqEWTo
Inflationary monetary policy under extremely deflationary fiscal/macro circumstances may result in inflation or deflation, depending on an endless number of factors. Those factors collectively determine sentiment.
$20 Silver, $1,400 Gold Coming In Market 'Flush' [View article]
Gold and silver trade in markets which incur price fluctuations. There are times to buy and times to sell.
$20 Silver, $1,400 Gold Coming In Market 'Flush' [View article]
Eric Sprott: I Think We Are In For A Shortage Of Physical Gold [View article]
Why Gold And Silver Prices Are Declining Along With The Dollar [View article]
Rigging is rigging and, as Doug states in the article, the markets in which we invest are MADE. The real question is: Will the DJIA and the price of an ounce of gold meet at $1,000, $5,000 or $50,000?
Excellent article and interesting commentary, thanks Doug and NLO.
Happy Holidays all!