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Fairway: An Update From Analyst Day
- Fairway stock appears to be mired in the $2s due to poor results and tax loss selling.
- The new management team is impressive and has a plan.
- The stock is a call option on solvency.
Fairway Board Compensation: A Response To The Bloomberg Story
- Bloomberg wrote an article comparing Fairway board compensation to tech giants like GOOG and FB.
- The article implied that while the stock has crashed, the board has cashed in.
- A look at the stock grants show that is not the case.
J.C. Penney: The News From Analyst Day Appears Good On Balance
- JCP held its first analyst day in years.
- The Company guided to gross margin, Capex, and SG & A assumptions that were better than I expected.
- The stock appears to be getting hit due to a cut in sales.
Walter: Revisiting The Bull Case - The Price Is Lower, But The Upside Remains The Same
- Lost in the implosion of WLT securities is why this is such an interesting long in the first place.
- The business is enormously operationally and financially leveraged.
- The huge cash reserve with minimal covenants, gives WLT at least 2-3 years to see better met pricing.
Walter Energy: What The Stock And Bond Prices Are Telling Us
- WLT stock and bond prices have collapsed over the past two weeks.
- The yields and low prices imply a near-term restructuring.
- If the market is overreacting, the stock and bonds should appreciate materially.
Fairway: An Undervalued Brand And A Long-Term Takeover Candidate
- Fairway: A storied brand that is orphaned in the market due to a busted IPO.
- The stock is currently trading below intrinsic value.
- Sterling Investors is the largest holder and will eventually seek an exit. A takeout should occur at over $10 per share.
J.C. Penney: Will The Stock Follow The Debt?
- J.C. Penney bonds, CDS and bank debt are all trading on their recent highs after a massive rally.
- JCP stock appears stuck in a holding pattern.
- JCP the Company appears on track on an operating basis.
Walter Energy - A Massively Leveraged Option On A Recovery On Met Coal Prices
- Met coal prices have plunged to multi-year lows.
- WLT is the most operationally and financially leveraged way to play a met coal recovery.
- This article will look at valuation for WLT under a variety of pricing scenarios.
J.C. Penney: Invest Now With More Certainty
- JCP has made it through the crunch period and is clearly going to be solvent.
- Solvency alone is not enough to make an exciting equity story.
- Buy below the $9.65 offering price with certainty that the Company has turned the corner.
J.C. Penney: In The Long Term, A Lot More Room To Run
- JCP's operations are beginning to hum.
- The sell-side and buy-side are not yet on board which is their mistake.
- The long-term free cash flow generating ability of the Company should be worth much more.
Giddy Up: J.C. Penney Could Hit $22 Sometime This Year
- J.C. Penney earnings have just crushed expectations of even the wildest bull.
- Most market participants are either short JCP or underweight.
- The sell-side got caught flat footed and will have to upgrade.
J.C. Penney: What To Expect From The Quarter
- JCP has been a battleground between the bulls and the bears.
- The debt markets are telling you that the Company's liquidity is adequate.
- Moderate comp store sales, combined with improving gross margins should send the shares higher.
J.C. Penney: Sometimes The Market Gives You A Gift To Buy
- JCP has survived a near death experience and emerged victorious.
- After a huge rally, the stock is close to its lows due to market conditions.
- Use market weakness as an opportunity to accumulate or cover. It is a gift.
J.C. Penney: Back By Popular Demand
- JCP stabilized in Q3.
- JCP started to grow again in Q4.
- JCP will show the trajectory of its turnaround in the coming quarters, which will return EBITDA to the $1-$2 billion range and get the stock north of $20.
- Game, set and match for the bulls.
- J.C. Penney: The Bell Tolls For The Bears - Buy The Whole Capital Structure Up
- J.C. Penney: What To Look For In Earnings
- J.C. Penney: So Much Noise, And What The Retail CDS Is Telling Us
- J.C. Penney: New Hires, Short Groupthink, And No Borrow Means No Borrow Part II
- J.C. Penney: No Borrow At Any Price. A Primer On Shorting
- J.C. Penney: Who Should You Believe, The Bulls Or The Bears?
- J.C. Penney: The Sell Side Always Agrees At The Bottom
- J.C. Penney: Positive Comps At Last, So Now We Know The Company's IR Is Bad
- J.C.Penney: A Case Study In Poor IR, Time For Ullman To Step Down
- Creating J.C. Penney At 2-3x EBITDA
- J.C. Penney: Why Preserve NOLs If There Aren't Future Profits?
- J.C. Penney: Good News Is Good News
- J.C. Penney Vs. Macy's And Sears
- J.C. Penney Q4 Guidance: A Massive Overreaction To Making The Quarter
- J.C. Penney Stock Weak/Bonds Strong: What That Tells Us About December Comps, And Valuation Update
- JCP: What To Look For In 2014
- J.C. Penney: The Next Tesla
- JCP: What The Bonds Are Telling Us