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  • 4 Stocks About To Rock: JetBlue, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Ocwen Financial Corp. And Arris Group [View article]
    I just received the 10/31/13 updated figures of 21.2% and 6.6 days to cover. We should receive the 11/15/13 updated figures soon.
    Best,

    Scott
    Nov 19, 2013. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    RuudNetherlands,
    I couldn't agree with you more. This lease guarantee is a big risk and creates a potential further downdraft on future earnings. In general, the financials for Tesla have been prepared taking the most aggressive position on all items. The rush to produce a "profit" and get a short term boost in share price comes at significant cost down the road.
    Best,

    Scott
    Nov 14, 2013. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    Tippydog,
    I think you got the answer after the bell today.

    Best,

    Scott
    Nov 5, 2013. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    Good point Bryce. Given the new technology, etc I compare the accrual to GM and other companies whose cars have been in production longer and hypothetically should have worked out more of the kinks. I just point the warranty accrual as a possible concern down the road but don't make an earnings adjustment for it now. My biggest concern is margin and the warranty accrual IF necessary to increase will further decrease margin which I believe is still in the single digits.
    Best, Scott
    Oct 29, 2013. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    Charles, I love the car Tesla and Elon Musk have made. No 2 ways about that. Awesome car.
    Awesome car in the luxury price doesn't make for an awesome company though. They should apply the same safety to investors in making sure their accounting represents the real performance of the company. Recall that Musk had no intention of raising any public money 7 days before raising $850M. Keep an eye on the cash position as these "profits" keep getting announced because so far (and I don't underestimate their ability to turn things around) they are relying on accounting gimmicks to claim profit when they are burning cash.
    Margin is the key and Musk has claimed a 25% margin by end of year 2013. I believe in Q1 and Q2 the margin was less than 10% while the claim is over 24%. Without margin the growth won't make a difference because at the end of the day investors are buying earnings.
    BTW, I am a KISS fan and have listened to most every song produced in 40 years (yes, some where very hard to listen to....insert MUSIC FROM THE ELDER and any Gene Simmons solo album :) The key for KISS is that they used the hype and theatrics to create a huge earnings machine. Their show was innovative and took concerts to a new level in the 70's much like Tesla Model S has to cars. The key to success for TSLA will be IF they can turn the technology into a profitable business with real sales growth. In my opinion, the car speaks for itself and they don't need to rely on the accounting gimmicks to artificially boost sales, margin and earnings.
    I am hopeful that in the end this company is a huge success on all fronts. I just believe that the $175 price is/was grossly overvalued given all the above today. Let's see what happens and perhaps the company performance can equal the impressive car one day.
    Oct 29, 2013. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    sc2000, It sounds like you have done very well with TSLA stock and there is nothing at all wrong with that. I agree with you on the technical study of the charts. However, I become a technician on stocks with good underlying growth, valuation, etc. My problem with the "growth" story on TSLA so far (this could be corrected with future real growth) is that it is being fabricated through accounting gimmicks thus far. I try to back out these gimmicks to get to real sales and real margins which will be key in projecting growth and more importantly the ability to make a profit if they get growth.
    You may not be a professional but sounds like you are doing very well. Best
    Oct 29, 2013. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    I saw this article and could be a prelude to a not so pleasant earnings announcement.
    Oct 25, 2013. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    The key the the companies success in the middle class is the margin which is why I spent time explaining what the true gross margin is. With those type margins they have very little chance of making money no matter how successful.
    Oct 25, 2013. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    What is wrong with the short interest calculation? This morning the short interest is 33.5% of float.

    As to your second question, may I assume you weren't an investor in 2001 when the internet bubble based on these same blind valuations burst. And it wasn't anything to do with the SEC. You see companies can say anything as long as there is a footnote describing it in filings. That satisfies the SEC but rarely do investors look at anything other than the headline #'s in these filings.

    I am a L/S investor as far as the portfolio I publish on SA. I have 10 Long positions to every 1 short in 2013. So it isn't accurate to label me a bear.
    Oct 25, 2013. 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    I completely agree with you on SEC. I am counting on the market (maybe another bad choice) to see through the #s and equate share price with performance.
    Oct 25, 2013. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    Hyeduk, Do you see the "horror" in what you just stated. News or hype drives the stock higher (no doubt this has and probably will happen again) but fundamentals of the company discussed could drag the stock down by a few $s. All stocks, in time, have to have valuation metrics that line up with performance and not news. My point in this article is to point out that the news has pushed the stock well past any reasonable valuation.
    Oct 25, 2013. 11:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Grossly Overvalued... Right Here, Right Now [View article]
    As President of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics I am prohibited from owning or shorting shares in a single company. We publish indexes and research for ETF, UIT, BTN and portfolio managers who do short.

    I believe the correct value based on the company performance is a range of $20-$50.
    Oct 25, 2013. 11:43 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Been A Long Way Down, 1 New Trade And 2 Positions To Open [View article]
    All,
    For anyone who has followed the Apple trade in this post I would Sell to close the Feb $500 put protection purchased at $62.13. I am still evaluating rolling options on the Call and put but feel that $425 is a technical bottom that should hold for the time being.

    Best,

    Scott
    Jan 26, 2013. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Been A Long Way Down, 1 New Trade And 2 Positions To Open [View article]
    TFCAB,
    Options are a great investment tool when used properly. I don't understand why SA made such a decision and perhaps will realize the mistake soon. Likely they confuse option strategies that buy options with lots of risk. My use of options is to limit risk and create an additional yield while holding fundamentally sounds companies. Until such time I will always publish on http://bit.ly/YdvO62 and always anwser any and all questions at sbrown@sabrient.com or in my inbox on SA.
    Best to you and you are on the right path with learning how to use options to your advantage.

    Scott
    Jan 25, 2013. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Been A Long Way Down, 1 New Trade And 2 Positions To Open [View article]
    I want to apologize to anyone who has followed the Dark Horse Trader's Hedge on SA for the last 2 years. Thank all of you for the dialogue. I submitted the continuation of this portfolio to SA for the January 2013 options last night. I was informed that they have adopted a new policy denying articles that in their opinion are "mostly options". Those of you who have followed my articles know that I try to present the thesis behind each trade and advise on the options to increase the return and manage the risk.

    I made 4 attempts to resolve the editor misunderstanding but was unsuccessful. It is apparent that SA no longer wishes to have articles such as Dark Horse Trader's Hedge on their site. Anyone wishing to contact me or read the posts can find them at http://bit.ly/YdvO62 . I will continue to monitor my inbox for a while on SA so feel free to contact me here or my email of sbrown@sabrient.com.

    I apologize again but don't have any control over the decisions made at SA.

    Best,

    Scott
    Jan 18, 2013. 12:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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