Daryl Montgomery

Nasdaq vs. Homebuilders vs. Oil

This article is comparing apples to oranges and is ridiculous. While a Nasdaq comparison is reasonable, the Nasdaq rally began in 1982, not 1994, with the beginning of a secular bull market that lasted 18 years. There is no reason the oil rally can't last 18 years as well and that commodities are in an 18 year secular bull market. The oil rally actually began at the low in 1998, so that would give it a potential 8 more years (if you wish to date the beginning of the secular bull in 2001, then 11 more years) based on the reasoning of this article. As for comparing homebuilders, the factors that affect their prices are not the same as those that woudl affect the price of a commodity. That comparison is completely invalid.