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Dave Kranzler  

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  • Existing Home Sales Miss Street Estimates - Underlying Data Still Bearish
    Tue, Mar. 24 BZH, DHI, KBH 14 Comments

    Summary

    • February had a small seasonal bounce from January's plunge.
    • The investor segment of sales volume continues to decline.
    • Near-record low mortgage rates and reduced credit barriers are not stimulating sales.
  • Mortgage Applications Confirm The Bearish Signal From Homebuilders
    Thu, Mar. 19 DHI, KBH, LEN 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Mortgage purchase applications have declined 8 of the last 11 weeks.
    • 93% of all new homebuyers use a mortgage.
    • Housing starts fell because homebuilders expect a decline in sales.
  • January New Home Sales: Small Bounce To Be Followed By Bigger Decline
    Mon, Mar. 2 BZH, KBH, XHB 13 Comments

    Summary

    • It appears as if a small bounce in new home sales might have occurred in January.
    • Mortgage purchase applications bounced in January with lower rates.
    • Unsold inventory is rising quickly.
  • January Existing Home Sales Fall More Than Expected
    Sun, Mar. 1 XHB, ITB, PKB 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Existing home sales fall 5% in January - miss analyst estimates.
    • Not seasonally adjusted monthly number plunged 32%.
    • Growing household debt levels will further impair buyer demand.
  • The U.S. Economy May Be Headed Toward Contraction This Year
    Mon, Feb. 23 UBT, TLT 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic reports showing widespread weakness.
    • Retail sales were negative two months in a row.
    • The wholesale inventory to shipments ratio indicates falling consumer demand.
    • The Baltic Dry Index reflects a rapid decline in consumer demand.
  • Silver Will Be The Best-Performing Asset Of 2015
    Fri, Feb. 13 AGQ, RPMGF, SVLC 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver has carved out a cyclical bottom.
    • There is massive physical demand supporting a move higher.
    • The current price pullback is a buying opportunity.
  • The Bearish Data Behind The Existing Home Sales Report
    Wed, Feb. 4 DHI, KBH, LEN 25 Comments

    Summary

    • November's sales report was revised lower showing the unreliability of the data series.
    • The first-time buyer share of the market declined.
    • Investor/flipper buying increased in December which is unsustainable.
  • A Highly Questionable New Home Sales Report For December
    Mon, Feb. 2 BZH, DHI, KBH 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Absurd level of variability attached to December's estimated sales.
    • Continuous downward revisions to previous reports shows unreliability of current estimate.
    • The Government numbers are contradicted by the private sector data.
  • November New Home Sales Tank
    Dec. 23, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 11 Comments

    Summary

    • November new home sales well below market expectations.
    • Underlying data show market even weaker than headline report.
    • Massive May-November downward revision sabotages the "recovery" narrative.
  • November Existing Home Sales Fall Hard
    Dec. 23, 2014 PHM, TOL, LEN 26 Comments

    Summary

    • November existing home sales were well below market expectations.
    • The not seasonally adjusted, actual estimated sales plunged.
    • Investor sales continue to drop and first time buyers are not filling the demand void.
  • Signs That Gold May Be Headed Higher... Finally
    Dec. 15, 2014 GLD, GDXJ, IAU 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Massive physical demand from India and China.
    • Negative GOFO is a possible bullish signal.
    • S&P 500/XAU ratio suggests the mining stocks have bottomed.
  • Holiday Retail Sales Could Be A Disaster
    Dec. 9, 2014 AMZN, RTH 40 Comments

    Summary

    • Black Friday weekend sales down 11% year over year.
    • Consumer credit growth quickly and unexpectedly decelerated in October.
    • Consumers have less money to spend per the soaring auto loan delinquency rate.
    • The plunging oil price reflects a structurally deteriorating economy.
  • Home Sales Reports Miss Wall Street Estimates
    Nov. 27, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 5 Comments

    Summary

    • New home sales were flat.
    • Pending home sales declined.
    • Small bounce in October will be followed by more weakness.
  • October Existing Home Sales Were Driven By Flippers
    Nov. 21, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 8 Comments

    Summary

    • The individual investor segment drove sales volume in October.
    • The first time buyer segment remains well below historical levels.
    • Foreclosures in October spiked up indicating more supply is on the way.
  • Housing Market Data This Week: False Flag Reports
    Nov. 20, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Homebuilder sentiment level has completely diverged from housing starts.
    • Housing starts decline, miss analysts' forecast.
    • Mortgage purchase application data continues to trend lower.
  • D.R. Horton's Latest Quarter: Trouble Brewing Beneath The Surface
    Nov. 12, 2014 DHI 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Its cancellation rate spiked up from Q3.
    • Cash flow from operations was negative $661 million for its Fiscal Year.
    • Inventory and debt levels rapidly accumulate.
  • Housing Update Market: It's Getting Worse
    Nov. 6, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 48 Comments

    Summary

    • Realtor confidence index plunged in September.
    • NAR market condition metrics declined in September.
    • Seller "sentiment" indicates that potential buyer segment is now contracting.
    • Critical first time buyer cohort continues shrinking.
  • New Homes Sales: September Report Confirms That The Data Is Unreliable
    Oct. 24, 2014 BZH, HOV, LEN 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The Census Bureau's number for August was knocked down by 38,000 (7.5%).
    • The September number missed expectations - forecasting may be useless.
    • Data reported by new home builders likely more reliable - sales orders in general are declining.
  • Existing Home Sales Decline Year Over Year For Eleven Months In Row
    Oct. 21, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 23 Comments

    Summary

    • September existing home sales declined 1.7% vs. September 2013.
    • Underlying fundamentals continue to deteriorate despite near-record low mortgage rates.
    • Time to short new homebuilder stocks.
  • Did The Economy Hit A Wall Over The Summer?
    Oct. 16, 2014 RTH, RXI 26 Comments

    Summary

    • The plunge in the 10-yr Treasury yield indicates a stalling economy.
    • A rapid decline in oil price reflects a big drop in gasoline demand.
    • September retail sales showed a rare monthly decline.
    • Walmart slashes 2014 sales forecast.
  • Housing Market Fundamentals Continue To Deteriorate
    Oct. 7, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Home sales are slowing or declining in most regions.
    • Declining trend in price growth reflects a decline in demand.
    • New homebuilders offering big incentives in many areas.
  • Drop In Pending Home Sales Index Reflects Further Decline In The Housing Market
    Oct. 1, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 2 Comments

    Summary

    • 1% decline missed Wall Street forecast of a .8% rise.
    • Pending sales dropped despite lowest mortgage rates in a year.
    • Latest Conference Board survey suggests that plans to buy a home lowest since Feb 2012.
  • A Skeptics View Of The Census Bureau's August New Home Sales Report
    Sep. 26, 2014 BZH, KBH, LEN 16 Comments

    Summary

    • The data is not consistent with reports from the private sector.
    • The data is not consistent with mortgage purchase applications.
    • KB Homes reported another decline Q3 (which included August) deliveries.
    • Homebuilder stocks declined despite "bullish" new home sales report.
  • August Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Drop, July Revised Lower
    Sep. 22, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales dropped from July and from August 2013.
    • Year-over-year sales have declined 10 months in a row.
    • Data contained in the report suggest buyer demand is quickly declining.
  • High Builder Confidence Correlates With Housing Market Tops
    Sep. 19, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 32 Comments

    Summary

    • NAHB Builder Confidence Index spiked up to a level not seen since 2005.
    • Peaks in builder confidence precede steep declines in housing starts and new home sales.
    • Homebuilder stocks carry high p/e's and high downside risk.
  • Bad News For Homebuilders Continues
    Sep. 10, 2014 DHI, HOV, KBH 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Mortgage purchase applications continue to plunge.
    • Hovnanian reports 9.2% decline year over year in contract signings.
    • DJ Home Construction Index turns bearish.
  • Housing Market Data Continues To Support The Bearish View
    Sep. 4, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 52 Comments

    Summary

    • Mortgage purchase applications continue to decline at double-digit rates.
    • Despite historically low mortgage rates sales volume is declining.
    • Toll Brothers revised its 2014 guidance lower.
  • July New Home Sales Reflect Deteriorating Housing Market
    Aug. 25, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 60 Comments

    Summary

    • New home sales well below consensus expectations.
    • Inventories rapidly climbing.
    • Homebuilder stock positions should be sold.
  • July Existing Home Sales: The Headline Reports Belie A Declining Market
    Aug. 22, 2014 XHB 7 Comments

    Summary

    • July existing home sales were 4.3% lower than July 2013.
    • Lower mortgage rates are not stimulating sales.
    • Rising inventories and rising rates will choke off demand and cause significant price declines.
    • Fannie Mae cuts its home sales forecast for 2014.
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn
    Aug. 11, 2014 BZH, DHI, LEN 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Mortgage applications to purchase a home continue to tumble.
    • The bond market sniffs trouble as mortgage bond spreads widen.
    • Since the June new home sales report, homebuilder stocks have significantly underperformed the S&P 500.
  • June Pending Home Sales Index: A Bearish Report Sends Homebuilder Stocks Lower
    Jul. 28, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 44 Comments

    Summary

    • June's pending home sales index declines vs. May.
    • Pending homes sales have declined every month this year vs. 2013.
    • Homebuilder stocks are down nearly 9% in three trading days.
  • New Homes Sales For June Plummet
    Jul. 24, 2014 BZH, DHI, KBH 74 Comments

    Summary

    • The numbers were well below even the lowest estimates.
    • The trend in mortgage purchase applications is forecasting further sales declines this summer.
    • Today's big decline in homebuilder stocks confirms that market expectations are too high.