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Dave Kranzler

 
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  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn
    Mon, Aug. 11 BZH, DHI, LEN 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Mortgage applications to purchase a home continue to tumble.
    • The bond market sniffs trouble as mortgage bond spreads widen.
    • Since the June new home sales report, homebuilder stocks have significantly underperformed the S&P 500.
  • June Pending Home Sales Index: A Bearish Report Sends Homebuilder Stocks Lower
    Mon, Jul. 28 BZH, DHI, KBH 44 Comments

    Summary

    • June's pending home sales index declines vs. May.
    • Pending homes sales have declined every month this year vs. 2013.
    • Homebuilder stocks are down nearly 9% in three trading days.
  • New Homes Sales For June Plummet
    Thu, Jul. 24 BZH, DHI, KBH 74 Comments

    Summary

    • The numbers were well below even the lowest estimates.
    • The trend in mortgage purchase applications is forecasting further sales declines this summer.
    • Today's big decline in homebuilder stocks confirms that market expectations are too high.
  • Existing Home Sales: Headlines Have Hope But Actual Data Needs Help
    Wed, Jul. 23 REZ, IYR 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Serial year-over-year decline still intact.
    • Rising inventory will be problematic: more sales were generated last June with lower inventory.
    • First-time buyers remain at historically low levels - if investors fade the market could collapse.
  • Mortgage Applications And Housing Starts Leave Little Doubt About The Housing Market
    Mon, Jul. 21 REM, MORL, XHB 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Mortgage applications continue to plummet.
    • Housing starts take a big drop in June.
    • The increase in the homebuilder sentiment index is deceptive.
    • Homebuilder stocks are negatively diverging from the S&P 500.
  • Minco Silver Doesn't Pass The 'Smell' Test
       • Sat, Jul. 12 MISVF 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The Company failed to return several calls/voicemails over a two week period.
    • The CFO recently resigned with no explanation.
    • The Company has not adequately explained an inability to get necessary permits.
    • The Company's Feasibility Report has not been updated in 5 years.
    • An unnecessary complex corporate structure which leaks fees.
  • China May Be Importing A Lot More Gold Than Is Being Reported
    Mon, Jun. 30 GDXJ, GLD, UGLD 35 Comments

    Summary

    • The World Gold Council's published reports are incorrect.
    • China imported over 2,000 tonnes of gold in 2013.
    • Imports through Beijing are not reported.
    • "Hidden" demand from China may offset the seasonal drop in price expected by many analysts.
  • May Existing Home Sales: Form Over Substance
    Mon, Jun. 23 BZH, DHI, KBH 52 Comments

    Summary

    • April to May increase was seasonal, at best.
    • Seven consecutive months of year-over-year declines.
    • Underlying "quality" of sales mix was poor.
    • Sell/Short today's bounce in homebuilder stocks.
  • Are Housing Prices About To Take A Tumble?
    Tue, Jun. 17 BZH, DHI, KBH 98 Comments

    Summary

    • Prospective homebuyer sentiment is declining.
    • Home listings hit a 4-year high in May while sales declined.
    • An apartment glut may be forming.
    • Housing "starts" do not necessarily translate into sales.
  • Is Silver Set Up For A Huge Short Squeeze?
    Thu, Jun. 12 SLV, AGQ, USLV 29 Comments

    Summary

    • The hedge fund gross short position in Comex silver futures is at a record high.
    • Hedge funds are net short a record amount of silver futures.
    • Producer/Merchants hedging is near a record low.
    • Backwardation in silver futures has been observed in China.
  • More Evidence Suggests The Housing Market Is Caving In
    Wed, Jun. 4 BZH, DHI, KBH 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Mortgage purchase applications declining during the peak seasonal month.
    • Lower rates fail to stimulate sales.
    • Affordability has become problematic.
    • The rate of mortgage closings is dropping.
  • The U.S. Economy: Deep Recession Coming
    Mon, Jun. 2 DHI, KBH, RTH 211 Comments

    Summary

    • Negative real GDP in the first quarter of 2014.
    • Key consumer and housing data show further Q2 contraction.
    • Decline in interest rates affirm the economy is growing weaker.
  • Pending Home Sales: Prices Are Headed South
    Thu, May. 29 BZH, DHI, KBH 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Pending Home Sales Index worse than expected.
    • Sales volume not picking up despite lower rates.
    • Supply/demand suggests prices are going lower.
  • A Weak New Home Sales Report: Short The Bounce In The Homebuilder Stocks
    Fri, May. 23 BZH, DHI, KBH 61 Comments

    Summary

    • April sales were down 4.2% year over year.
    • Average home price dropped 5% year over year.
    • Inventory is climbing.
  • The Gold Rush In India Begins: Expect A Big Move In The Price Of Gold
    Thu, May. 22 GLD, UGLD 32 Comments

    Summary

    • India's Central Bank Modified Some Import Rules Yesterday (May 21).
    • Ex-duty import premiums are declining, which historically signals significant import duty changes.
    • Normalized gold import flow into India will cause a big move higher in the price of gold.
  • Beneath The Headline Reports, Housing Starts Data Appear Bearish
    Fri, May. 16 BZH, DHI, KBH 7 Comments

    Summary

    • 99% of the increase in starts was for multi-family structures.
    • An oversupply of rental units is developing.
    • Flat single-family home starts reflect the already deterioration in home sales.
  • Several Ominous Signs In Housing
    Wed, May. 14 DHI, KBH, LEN 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Existing home sales declining as housing starts continue to climb.
    • The market could soon be flooded with rental units.
    • Housing stocks signalling the onset of a bear market.
  • Is Something Big Brewing In Silver?
    Fri, May. 9 SLV, AGQ, USLV 156 Comments

    Summary

    • Silver is more oversold now than anytime in the last 28 years.
    • Silver eagle and silver maple leaf coins are selling at a record rate this year.
    • Over 42% of the silver at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been removed since the end of February.
  • Will Housing Sales Show A Collapse In May's Reports?
    Wed, Apr. 30 PHM, TOL, LEN 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Mortgage purchase applications were down 21% year-over-year last week.
    • Home ownership rate drops below 65% to a 19-year low.
    • The average household is no longer able to afford home ownership.
  • March Pending Home Sales: Lots Of Hype But Little Hope
    Tue, Apr. 29 PHM, TOL, LEN 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite an increase from February, March year over year declined 8%.
    • National Association of Realtors lowers sales expectations for 2014.
    • Plunging mortgage applications suggests continued declining trend in sales.
  • March New Home Sales Plunge
    Thu, Apr. 24 BZH, DHI, KBH 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Historically, March should be the strongest month for new home sales.
    • Weather and low inventory are not valid reasons for the decline.
    • Market expectations for the housing market are too high.
    • Homebuilder stocks are overvalued.
  • March Existing Home Sales Data Show Further Deterioration In The Housing Market
    Wed, Apr. 23 BZH, DHI, KBH 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Steep year over year decline in existing homes sales.
    • Inventories rising quickly.
    • Bad weather was not the problem in March.
  • The Factors That Will Drive Gold Higher Soon: Gold Forward Rate, China And India
    Thu, Apr. 17 GLD, UGLD 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Negative GOFO rates are highly correlated with rallies in the price of gold.
    • Despite misleading reports, Chinese demand continues to grow.
    • Indian demand is reviving as import controls are rescinded.
  • Beazer Home's Debt Deal Reflects Deteriorating Homebuilder Fundamentals
    Fri, Apr. 11 DHI, KBH, LEN 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The BZH deal is rated just two notches above "distressed".
    • Homebuilders should be deleveraging now, not re-leveraging.
    • Homebuilder stocks are showing significant negative divergence from the S&P 500.
  • March Auto Sales: Headline Numbers Conceal Fundamental Weakness
    Thu, Apr. 3 F, GM 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Aggressive incentives drove month-end push for sales.
    • March had five full weekends.
    • Dealer inventory stuffing.
    • Proliferation of junk financing to stimulate sales.
  • The Housing Market Is Starting To Get Hammered
    Fri, Mar. 28 BZH, DHI, KBH 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Existing home sales for the first two months of 2014 were down nearly 25% on an annualized basis.
    • The new home sales decline is getting steeper.
    • Pending home sales appear to be collapsing.
  • February Existing Home Sales Data Shows Accelerating Housing Market Contraction
    Tue, Mar. 25 DHI, KBH, RYL 21 Comments

    Summary

    • First-time and investor buyer demand is plunging.
    • Seasonally adjusted annualized sales volume is down 14.5% from 2013's peak.
    • Inventory is quickly climbing.
  • Here's How Housing Bubble 2.0 Becomes Housing Crash 2.0
    Thu, Mar. 20 BX, BZH, DHI 173 Comments

    Summary

    • The big investor buying binge is done.
    • The first-time buyer segment is in serious decline.
    • Renewed homebuilder pessimism reflects a poor market outlook.
  • 2 Black Swans That Could Crush The Housing Market
    Wed, Mar. 12 BAC, JPM, WFC 79 Comments

    Summary

    • Legislation to eliminate FNM/FRE hits Congress.
    • Shifting the risk of mortgage loss to the private sector would increase mortgage rates.
    • The first time buyer cohort is in decline.
  • The 'Bad Weather' Excuse Is Not Valid - The Economy Is Tanking
    Fri, Mar. 7 XRT, RTH, RETL 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic data is deteriorating.
    • The decline is driven by the consumer.
    • Poor weather is not the reason for the weakness.
  • February U.S. Auto Sales: The Fundamentals Continue To Deteriorate
    Wed, Mar. 5 F, GM 14 Comments
  • The Housing Market May Be Starting To Crash
    Wed, Feb. 26 XHB, ITB, PKB 83 Comments