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Dave Kranzler  

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  • Green Sprouts In Real Estate [View article]
    Housing stocks are more overvalued now than in 2005/2006. What has just occurred in the housing market is an "echo bubble" induced by $2 trillion in stimulus the Fed directly injected into the housing market. Unit volume sales are stagnant and can't even bounce up to 50% of what they were at the peak.

    Even by the Govt's trumped up numbers, 80% of the wage-earning demographic has seen its avg monthly income decline - it's lower now than in 2007. The average American does not earn enough money to support homeownership.

    According to RealtTrac, no less, 35% of ALL homeowners have "effective" negative equity - STILL.

    Sorry Markos, your analysis is not supported by fundamental facts.
    Apr 1, 2015. 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The U.S. Housing Market Bloom Anew In The Spring? [View article]
    With over 80% of workers experiencing declining real monthly incomes, exactly FROM WHERE are they going to get the money to buy a home? "Volume" is not picking up. From a seasonal standpoint it might be picking up a little, but if you are basing your view on the SAAR garbage data reported by the NAR and CB, then you are badly mistaken in your view. The Census Bureau doesn't even base all of its data on contract signings. If you read the fine print in their methodology, in areas where they are taking data samples where for whatever reason they can't get contract signing data, they use building permits filed - LOL.
    Mar 31, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The U.S. Housing Market Bloom Anew In The Spring? [View article]
    Those loans are geared to small investors who will be buying the inventory being dumped by the big investment funds. It's a loan mechanism designed to give the big funds an exit strategy. It's akin to the big funds unloading stocks onto retail just before a parabolic stock market rolls over and crashes.
    Mar 31, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The U.S. Housing Market Bloom Anew In The Spring? [View article]
    "white hot" means you're hearing about price bidding wars because there's supposedly a low level of inventory. but the bidding wars are occurring in the under $700k range. The entire country is flooded with over $700k listings.

    The under $700k segment has "low" listed inventory because, according to RealtyTrac, 35% of ALL homeowners still have effective negative equity. This means they won't be listing but would be if prices get a little higher.

    Rising prices the way they are rising is only a sign of massive Fed intervention in the market. It's not the sign of a healthy or recovering market. Volume is still 1/2 - 1/3 of what it was at the peak.

    Bidding wars are the sign of a very unhealthy market from a volume perspective. This will not end well.
    Mar 31, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Looks Like A Short [View article]
    Yes! Thank you. Another housing market analyst on Seeking Alpha who bothers to do real homework! Bravo:

    http://bit.ly/1xmd8n5
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Driving Housing Stocks Higher [View article]
    "Rising salaries?" Seriously? Have you bothered to look at - the Government's own calculations - that the bottom 90% of the labor force has been experiencing declining income? The real median monthly household income is lower now than it was in 2007. That data is available in the Government's own reports.

    Do your homework please.
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Driving Housing Stocks Higher [View article]
    Have you actually looked deeply into homebuilder 10k's and 10q's? Because if you have, you would know that, from a fundamental analysis standpoint, the homebuilders are more overvalued now using just standard financial metrics than they were at the peak of the housing bubble in 2005/2006.

    How can you say "the labor market is strengthening" when every month - by the Govt's own numbers - more people leave the labor force than are able to find jobs. And the majority of the jobs are part-time. If you look and analyze below headline reports, you would know that.

    Home sales improving? By the Govt's own new home sales numbers, Feb 2015 new home sales - SAAR - were below Feb 2013's report. Where is there a trend of improvement in that?
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Moving Housing Stocks? [View article]
    What in particular did you think was good about LEN's numbers? Do you realize that if they were not allowed to capitalize interest expense, they would have missed their number?

    Do you realize that their debt level soared in their first quarter? Do you realize that they are capitulating on selling homes in some communities and will now try to lease out some of their overbloated inventory?

    The homebuilder stocks are more overvalued now in relation to their fundamentals than they were were in 2005/6: http://bit.ly/1xmd8n5
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Housing Starts, Housing Permits Were Encouraging [View article]
    "Permits?" Are you serious? What's the average listing price in MLS for a permit? Permits are meaningless other than they make a great statistic in homebuilder bond deal investor presentations.

    Homebuilders are building and completing more homes than their selling. Ask Lennar - they're now going to try renting unsold homes.

    http://bit.ly/1CrqSz0
    Mar 18, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders - Why So Blue? [View article]
    Construction spending has been declining, although according to the BLS, the construction industry was one of the biggest "sources" of jobs in Feb. So that blows your lack of labor theory up.

    Here's the truth about housing: http://bit.ly/1CrqSz0

    And here: http://bit.ly/1CrqSz2
    Mar 17, 2015. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Housing Heading In The Wrong Direction Again? [View article]
    Yes, no restrictions on using gifted money for the down payment and the seller can subsidize up to 6% of the buyer's closing costs.

    The problem is, most people who don't already own a home don't make enough money to support the monthly cost of ownership.
    Mar 16, 2015. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Housing Heading In The Wrong Direction Again? [View article]
    I will be writing on that loan program by BBVA. If you read between the lines, the program is designed to enable the big funds who want to start dumping all the homes they bought to smaller scale "investors."

    It's designed to transfer big investor housing inventory to retail investors. Here's my take on today's Homebuilder sentiment report:

    http://bit.ly/1BJx9CH
    Mar 16, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Second Leg Up Of The Housing Recovery Appears Imminent, Not Just For Homebuilders [View article]
    Here's just one isolated example of doing do due diligence - you get real data:

    http://bit.ly/1Ajl2YZ
    Mar 11, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Second Leg Up Of The Housing Recovery Appears Imminent, Not Just For Homebuilders [View article]
    Honestly ant, this country will have collapsed before the 2020's. Maybe it will "recover" when the new country forms.
    Mar 11, 2015. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Second Leg Up Of The Housing Recovery Appears Imminent, Not Just For Homebuilders [View article]
    Improvement in jobs for 25-34 yr olds? From where are you getting your data? Seriously? If you buy the Govt BLS numbers, all of the new "jobs" were created in energy, construction and retail/service (bartenders, waitresses, etc). The first two categories are not possible. Energy is dumping employees. Constructon spending is contracting. You think bartenders and waitresses are going to to run out and take down a mortgage and buy a home?

    ALL of the gains in "household formation" were driven by renter households. Look it up. Do proper due diligence. Homeownership rate just plunged once again to a 20yr low. Look it up. Inventory on homebuilder balance sheets is now higher than it was in 2005/2006 - on 2/3 less unit volume sales. I have done that due diligence - have you?

    Please due better due diligence.
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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