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Dave Kranzler

 
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  • Breakout In Waiting: Housing Lags The Impressive Growth In U.S. GDP [View article]
    LOL. You call some statistical revision that boosted Obamacare spending on insurance policies "impressive growth?"

    It's not even real - it was a nonsensical statistical adjustment that the BLS decided to stick in it's Q3 vomit rather than its Q1 vomit.
    Dec 28, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • November New Home Sales Tank [View article]
    From the Arizona Republic: “Metro Phoenix’s home building slump continued in November. In November, 803 new houses sold across the Valley. That’s down 12 percent from a year ago. Builders have been offering deals including no payments for a year and discounts of 10 to 20 percent on houses already built as they try to sell inventory before the end of the year. The slump in construction employment also worsened in November, with the industry losing another 900 jobs. Over the past 12 months, Arizona has lost 4,300 jobs.”
    Dec 23, 2014. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • November Existing Home Sales Fall Hard [View article]
    Funny, if you read thru the nicely done piece about the Obamacare revisions, you can see exactly what is going on:

    http://bit.ly/1xI5bYj

    I guess if you put faith in Govt reports, you'll put faith in anything. Certainly the new home sales print COMBINED with the massive downward revision for they May-November period does not support a 5% GDP move in Q3...
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • November Existing Home Sales Fall Hard [View article]
    Toll here and Phoenix is offering serious upfront incentives if you buy one of their homes. With the inventory of high end homes ballooning up quickly all over Denver, the new home builders are going to have to really slash prices to get part of the shrinking pie.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • November Existing Home Sales Fall Hard [View article]
    You believe that 5% GDP number? lol I don't know anyone who does.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Are Only Getting Less Attractive [View article]
    BOOM goes the dynamite. Buy 'em baby. Show us yer real and not just some internet chat board putz.
    Dec 12, 2014. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Are Only Getting Less Attractive [View article]
    Ahh. Here's what the HOV said: “‘As we look at 2015, the house we sell today is going to struggle to be marginally accretive. We just don’t have the pricing power to improve the margin,’ Toll CEO Douglas Yearley Jr. said. "

    Oops...
    Dec 12, 2014. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Are Only Getting Less Attractive [View article]
    That's not point and you are looking in the rear view mirror. It's the outright number of listings. I know someone who lives there and he alerted me to it. He told me a month ago that he was stunned by the number of homes that piled onto the market. He was looking to buy and now he said he's waiting.

    Yes, housing did a hit a wall. Ask Ara Hovnanian. I would think - and it's just a wild guess (sarcasm) - that he knows just a slight bit more about the market than does Civilization Type 1 or whatever your name is.

    Not only is there a flood of homes in Cherry Hills, there's flood of high end homes for sale in ALL the high end areas. Who care's what Zillow is forecasting. Zillow is wrong. Zillow was forecasting higher home prices and sales in 2006.

    If you believe in Zillow, I think you should load up on KBH and BZH. The DJUSHB just hit the 200 dma today. Play the bounce! Put your money where our mouth is! Walk the walk - don't talk the empty talk. Show us what you got.
    Dec 12, 2014. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Are Only Getting Less Attractive [View article]
    Here's a report from Connecticut:

    “Prices fell for the eighth consecutive month year-over-year, Timothy Warren Jr., chief executive officer of The Warren Group said. The median price of a single-family home in Connecticut fell 3.4 percent from $250,000 in October 2013 to $241,600 during the same period this year. Byron Lazine, a real estate agent with Seaport Real Estate Group in Mystic, said that high levels of existing housing stock ‘will continue to have downward pressure on prices’ going forward.”
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Are Only Getting Less Attractive [View article]
    High end housing is going to crash - this is just one of the upper-end areas around Denver: http://bit.ly/16goah4

    Look at all those homes listed for sale. There's several other zip code maps I could post in areas with a preponderance of $800k+ homes for sale. Literal avalanche of them.

    I have had readers from all around the country email me with similar reports - Houston, Connecticut, NJ, Florida, SoCal, Vegas, Phoenix.
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Are Only Getting Less Attractive [View article]
    BOOM goes the dynamite - DJUSHB down 1.7% today, 8% since Nov 25:

    http://bit.ly/16gnubF
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Are Only Getting Less Attractive [View article]
    Multi-family housing glut already here in Denver, with many mega-projects in various stages of construction. Was chatting with a big building leasing agent last week who said apartment rents in Denver are falling due to oversupply.

    QE has engineered a serious misallocation of capital, especially in the housing market.

    From Trulia, another "horse's mouth:" http://on.trulia.com/1...
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Are Only Getting Less Attractive [View article]
    FYI - this is from "the horses mouth" earlier this week:

    “Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home dropped dramatically in November, signaling a slowdown in sales for the nation’s builders. ‘There was less urgency in the last quarter,’ Ara Hovnanian, CEO of K Hovnanian Homes, told analysts. ‘Given the gains we’ve seen in 2014 in employment, we would have expected housing demand to be stronger then the low levels we are currently experiencing.’"

    He obviously buys into the phony headline report like you do. But this is the CEO of one of the country's largest homebuilders that housing hit a wall in November, despite lower interest rates....
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Are Only Getting Less Attractive [View article]
    Larry, from where are you getting accelerated employment growth? The reported headline BLS number?

    Rather than regurgitate headline nonsense, you need to pull apart the details of the report. BY THE BLS's own numbers - the Establishment Survey - jobs only rose 4k. Of THAT, 150k full-time jobs were lost vs. 77k part-time jobs gained. 69k people dropped out of the workforce. Dunno about you, but I don't know anyone making espressos at SBUX who can afford to buy a home.

    As for interest rates: We're are at near-record low mortgage rates and mortgage purchase applications continue to drop almost weekly. Easiing of lending standards? What easing? FHA has been offering 3.5% down mortgages for several years. FNM/FRE allowing 1st time buyers to make a 3% down payment won't stimulate 1st time buyer sales. Note: the new down payment standard is for 1st time buyers. Not move-up buyers.

    Moreover, FHFA just announced that it's assessing a 4.2 basis fee for every loan purchased by FNM/FRE. That assessment will be passed on to the mortgagee, ultimately.
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Holiday Retail Sales Could Be A Disaster [View article]
    Goldman chain store sales index, sequentially, last two weeks: -1.8%, -1.5%. Man, not even inflation is offsetting the volume declines going on right now - yikes
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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