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Dave Kranzler  

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  • New Home Sales Flying Off The Shelves [View article]
    Uh, flying off the shelves? Compared to what? The bottom in 2010? Were you even working in the markets in 2005 when new home sales peaked at more than double the current rate?

    Can you explain how the Census Bureau calculates its rate of new home sales? Can you describe the seasonal adjustments?

    Did you look at the unadjusted monthly number that was surveyed?

    Did you notice that TOL missed earnings and revenues badly yesterday and the stock plunged more than 7%?
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Big Long' - Goldman Sachs And HSBC Buy 7.1 Tons Of Physical Gold [View article]
    Goldman, HSBC, and Gresham's Law:
    Aug 10, 2015. 06:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critical Reason To Hold Gold [View article]
    The United States Government is the biggest and most dangerous terrorist organization in the world The domestic police force counrywide kils one person every 7 hours. That is a fact. The military kills more people every year than all Islamic "terrorist" organizations combined have killed since Bush's "war on terror" began.

    The United States has more debt and contingent liabilities as percent of GDP than any country in the history of the universe. The fraud and corruption in this country is the worst in history.

    The United States Government is the reason to own gold, not Isis.

    Your friend who is "globally connected?" LOL Give me a break. She sounds like a dope.
    Jul 3, 2015. 09:46 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KB Home: Offering Investors The Largest Upside In The Housing Sector [View article]
    KBH's cash flow for operations - which includes all interest expenses including the interest expense that KB capitalizes and includes money dumped into inventory - is highly negative. They burn cash every quarter. On top of that it has an unsustainable amount of debt that requires cooperation from the junk bond market in order for KB to extend and pretend.

    Once the junk bond market fails, KBH hits the wall.
    Jun 25, 2015. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurasian Minerals: Move To The Sidelines [View article]
    Yes. And I've already spoken with management about that. There's A LOT going on there that the market is not aware of.
    May 27, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurasian Minerals: Move To The Sidelines [View article]
    Hey. So uh, did you happen to speak to management before you wrote your analysis? I bet not. You miss the biggest areas of valuation in this Company. I speak to management ALL the time. You are way off in your assessment.
    May 27, 2015. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Repairs Aren't Making Much Noise [View article]
    Sorry, the data shows specifically that existing home sales are being driven primarily by vacation home sales (non-recurring) and smaller investor activity. As reinforcement for the latter fact, I personally know several people who have bought "investment" condos with their IRA's - 35% down/non-recourse financing. Alternative investment IRA custodians enable this.

    Condo rentals? Just in time for the massive influx of new apartment capacity hitting every major MSA. EVERY building in Denver now is offering a free 1-month incentive to move-in. Bye Bye investment rental market...

    Once again flippers/investors will get fleeced.
    May 5, 2015. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Conundrum: A Poor Supply Of Fresh Inventory Or An Oversupply Of Poor Pricing? [View article]
    There's not an undersupply of inventory. Accoring to RealtyTrac, 35% of ALL homeowners STILL are in an "effective negative equity" position. This is defined as the value of the home minus the cost of listing, selling, and moving.

    A large portion of that would be considered "shadow" inventory if the homes were not in a negative equity position. As long as they can continue making their monthly home ownership payments, they can't sell.

    When interest go up by just a little, housing prices will drop and a lot of these households will go from "effective negative equity" to "outright negative equity."

    Unit sales volume is being driven right now by the non-recurring, unsustainable variable of a vacation home sales:

    It helps to analyze the facts when you do thorough due diligence you don't just regurgitate the NAR propaganda.
    Apr 26, 2015. 02:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Existing Home Sales: More Sizzle Than Substance [View article]
    Hey bud, sorry I have not been perfect on my timing. However I have made a small fortune on my KBH and Beazer shorts. It's tough to short anything in this stock market bubble of historic proportions. The fact that I can make money shorting some homebuilders despite the almost daily new record highs in the SPX tells us I'm right and will make a killing when the market turns.

    I made 5% in two day on the DHI short positions I threw on Monday ahead of DHI's earnings.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Existing Home Sales: More Sizzle Than Substance [View article]
    Just the facts, please, on household debt:

    According to RealtyTrac, 35% of all homeowers still have "effective negative equity" in their homes.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Housing Starts Are Affecting Homebuilders [View article]
    Housing starts are increasing? Please explain the definition of a "housing start." Do you know what that means? Do you understand that the data you are quoting is based on an "annualized rate" calculation after the data is put through a "seasonal adjustment" meat grinder?

    Were you aware that homebuilder inventories are at all-time highs - even higher than in 2005/2006? How closely do you actually look at homebuilder 10K's and Q's?

    How do you explain the crashing price of lumber? For a more informative view on the truth, check out this:
    Apr 21, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Is More Than 20% Overvalued Based On Fundamentals [View article]
    The comment above is incorrect. First, there is an oversupply of new homes. Even Trulia's own chief economist admits this:

    That's a stunning admission from the chief economist of an organization that promotes home sales.

    Second, the value of home is based on the how big of a mortgage the buyer can support. 93% of ALL homes are financed using a mortgage now. Homes have been effectively "financialized" by the Fed and the Government (taxpayer).

    If the Fed were to raise rates, the amount of debt being used to prop up home prices would fall. By how much? What's the convexity of 30 yr mortgage with an avg life of 30 yr mortgage with standard amortization? Well, that depends on rates. As rates move higher, the duration and convexity shoot up and the value of the mortgage plummets. This means that less can be borrowed to buy a home.

    If interest rates were to "normalize" to historical levels, I think we would find that the average home would be overvalued by at least 50%.

    Finally, there's "shadow inventory" that no one discusses anymore, but it's there. According RealtyTrac, and I'll be publishing on this soon, 35% of all homeowners have "effective negative equity." This is the implied home equity AFTER netting out the cost of sellling and moving. This means that 35% of all homeowners will not sell unless they have to because they can't afford the mortgage.

    There's also a potential avalanche of homes that will hit the market by big investment funds looking for an exit strategy on rental portfolios that are no yielding what was modeled. How come no one is asking why these LLC's are not doing IPOs even though the S&P 500 keeps hitting new highs? The last attempted one was 2 years ago by Colony Capital. It was pulled. They are not IPO'ing because they are not producing profits.

    Raise rates just a little and many homeowners will forced out of their homes.

    The Govt and the Fed and working overtime to keep a floor under home prices. When that floor collapses, most people - like the rental yield theory guy above - will be horrified by what happens to home prices.
    Apr 17, 2015. 09:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Turn Is Here [View article]
    it's hard for me to see where the author is seeing any signs of growth except in the wages of the Government's "supervisory" category of workers. If you to the St. Louis Fed FRED database, you'll find a link that shows wages have been tanking hard for 80% of the labor force since 2013.

    "Harsh" winter? Really? Let's not forget that every purveyor of economic statistics "seasonally adjusts" its data. In fact, to claim the winter was "harsh" is outright either intentional disinformation or misinformed ingnorance. The two last years according the NOAA has been warmer than historical norm for the country as a whole.

    In short, I'm shocked that the SA editors published this article as-is.
    Apr 9, 2015. 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Turn Is Here [View article]
    that is a hilarliously great comment
    Apr 9, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Bubble And The Lesser Depression: Either The Very Sharp Dean Baker, Or I, Am Hopelessly Confused [View article]
    Just curious Brad, from where do you derive your statment "fiscal austerity?" True spending is represented by the amount Treasury debt outstanding increases. Since 2010, the amount of Treasury debt outstanding has increased by 47% from 12.3 Trillion to $18.1 Trillion.

    If you were a real analyst, you would know that the true amount of Government spending is not based on the phony budget deficit Obama presents but on tax revenues + debt issued. Cash in = cash out, where "cash in" MUST by definition = tax revenues + debt issuance.
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment