Dave Kranzler

Long/short equity, deep value, special situations, contrarian
Dave Kranzler
Long/short equity, deep value, special situations, contrarian
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Golden Returns Capital
Nice. If you want, you can pm me your email address and I'll send you copy of my Short Seller's Journal and you can see if you want to subscribe. David Stockman is a subscriber.
Hey man I just went through a lot of your stock picks since 2013, especially the BDCs and the REITS - do you have ANY picks that have declined since you recommended them?
Check out what happened after hours.
Oops: http://tinyurl.com/h2r...
FYI AMZN is reporting that Prime has 54 million MEMBERS. AMZN is global you dope. A Prime "member" is not representative of a U.S. household. Good god you are dense.
For the record, I have said that AMZN will once again rig its Q4 numbers and the stock will shoot up in after hours. But you'll have to get my report to understand how and why the numbers are rigged.
Seriously June, what do you think data mining is? It says right in FB's 8-K: "Mobile advertising revenue - Mobile advertising revenue represented approximately 80% of advertising revenue"
That's verbatim, you moron. Wait, do you even know what an 8-k is?
You are making the claim the that 54% of households have Prime? ROFLMAO. Even if that were close to true, AMZN loses money on every Prime membership. Bezos admits that. MY AMZN dot CON report shows in detail why this is the case.
Heck, I hope AMZN sells a Prime membership to every household because I would love to see how it will finance the losses from that operation.
Huh? I guess everything is every other country's fault and this sell-off has NOTHING to do with the fact the U.S. stock market is insanely overvalued. Ya it's ok to buy AMZN at $600 as long as China is printing money to try and stimulate its economy.
Shorting this stock market right now is one of the greatest money making opportunities in the stock market since the tech bubble: http://bit.ly/1Znblbb
The only better opportunity is well-positioned junior mining stocks (gold and silver).
Amazon is Ponzi scheme in disguise that relies on sales growth, Prime membership and gift card deposits and other tricks to make sure enough cash is coming in at any given time to fund its expenses. This is why it is now CONSTANTLY running discount deals to subsribe to Prime. It self-admittedly loses a few billion on Prime. The accounting games it plays border on fraud, although they questionably fall within the very grey areas of GAAP.
The bottom line is that it costs AMZN more to get products from its "shelf" to the end-user's doorstep than it makes selling the product. My report on AMZN proves this with very detailed analysis drawn from spending 100's of hours scouring AMZN's footnotes AND from insiders sources in Silicon Valley.
David Stockman featured some excerpts from my report last week and here's an example of why its AWS cloud business is shame: http://bit.ly/1PFdmIO
His oil investing strategy will work out about as well as his investment in USG worked? I wonder if the author even remembers that one. How has his big railroad play worked? And he added to GM on the cusp of a collapse in auto sales...
Can you please explain where you see "health" in the economy? The "jobs" report? You can't be taken seriously as an analyst if you think that jobs report is even remotely representative of the employment situation in this country. Housing? Sure if you want to place credence in the statistically manipulate - I mean seasonally adjusted - annualized garbage vomited up by the NAR and the Census Bureau.
The concept of "capitulation marking a bottom" is beyond tired. When the entire market looks for something that worked in the past, it no longer works.
The economy is in a recession, stocks are extremely overvalued and credit is blowing up. There won't be true "capitulation" until the S&P 500 drops well below 1,000.
AMZN is by far one of the best fundamentals/risk-adju... shorts in the market: http://bit.ly/1J8WVYt
AMZN equity report and why to short it: http://bit.ly/1MEsYL9
AMZN equity report and why to short it: http://bit.ly/1MEsYL9
My short of the week in my Short Sellers Journal is a homebuilder that was down down 7% yesterday and is down 10% on the week: http://bit.ly/1Znblbb
LOL. Thank you - see my comment below.
Percentage increase? Let's see the raw numbers. Do you have those? Anyone who has followed this metric and the housing market data for more than just a few years knows to ignore the mortgage apps data in late December and early January and on holiday weeks?
Data metrics expressed in percentages and SAARs are by far the most easy to manipulate and the most unreliable.
And actually the mortgage finance index is mostly big bag of brown stuff.
Buy my AMZN report. I don't give away my work for free.
Williams Companies (WMB) - OLE!!!
YES! Everyone seems to forget that Kinder went to college with and was buddies with Ken Lay. Lay recruited him to be the COO of Enron. Kinder was COO for Enron when all the fraud at Enron was being put in place!!!
I will say that the idea that KMI's revenues and income is "stable" is total nonsense - and I can prove that.
Well then I guess you'll just have to wait until I get my report finished and pony up whatever I decide to charge for it.
No. I have a lot other business activities besides spending time writing this report. Unlike you, I don't spend much time on Seeking Alpha comment boards unless I see an article is completely idiotic and with a premise not founded on facts. It takes a lot of time to produce the research reports I write - that's why people pay good money for them.
I guess you've been a KMI bagholder and now all you can do is either sell here, which I would do if I were you, or pray that I'm wrong. Prayers are not valid investment strategy.
Where on EARTH do you get that KMI has "stable" income and cash flow? KMI's operating income plunged 45% from Q3 2014 to Q3 2015. Is that what you call "stable?"
I am working on a full-blow research report on KMI and it will shock people what I've come up with from pouring through the footnotes to its financial statements. it's overpaid for acquisitions and it's taken on way too much debt to pay for overpaying for those acquisitions. There's other big problems as well.
The common myth propagated by Wall St. and articles like this one is that KMI's income is not dependent on the price of oil and gas. That is a fraudulent assertion. It's revenues and income is more dependent on the price of energy than people realize and I can prove it.
Hopefully I'll have my report finished this week. People can find the work I've already produced here: http://bit.ly/1Znblbb
I will say that Kinder is a short down to at least $7. And if you don't understand where I get that number, then you have not done any homework on Kinder other than regurgitate the misleading propaganda that's been proliferated on this partial Ponzi scheme of a company.
Where do you get $65K household income? That number is made up. Real median household income is like $53k - BEFORE taxes. That number can be obtained on the St Louis Fed site. Your article is based on made up numbers.
"Unavoidable part of the evolution of labor dynamics?" What does that even mean? It's the most absurdly ridiculous statement I've ever seen on SA.
The LFPR has plunged because this country has been de-industrialized and people would rather live on Govt handouts like student loans and Soc Sec disablity than flip burgers for $9/hour.
The service sector's wages are about 1/2 of the traditional industrial economies wage scale. Service sector economic activity is dependent on consumer spending. Consumer spending has been fueled by debt.
The debt ship has sailed. Can't keep increasing debt loads ad infinitum. This country is deteriorating into third world status.
Your analysis is based on made up numbers an unicorn dreams.
Umm, do you REALLY believe the Govt-reported unemployment number? What about the close 100 million people who are no longer considered part of the Labor Force? I guess you expect them to buy a house?
You average household income is tragically wrong. Please cite your source. Seeking Alpha used to reject articles with data like that cited without a source link unless you re-submitted with proper documentation.
This has to be one of the most inaccurately constructed articles on the housing market that I've ever come across on SA. It's a tragedy.
LOL. You serious? Explain where these millenials are going to find jobs that pay enough to support home ownership? Do they each get 2 jobs bar-tending and waiting tables? Costco greeter what's that pay? Costco checker? Uber driver?
This economy is collapsing. Not only are housing sales going to collapse this year, mortgage delinquencies and defaults are going to soar.
I can't believe how clueless you people are.
Yes. I have a contact who is was very involved in IPO'ing the bubble stocks of the late 1990's. It's well known in SV that most of AMZN's AWS business comes from the current batch of private equity funded tech start-ups.
The more items they have to ship via Prime shipping, the more they lose on each order
Seeking Alpha editors used to do a better job screening the articles that lacked statistical support for their thesis. Robert, have you actually engaged in any serious statistical analytic work in the housing market or are you merely parroting the "meme" being promoted by the NAR?
Here's is the truth. Going back AT LEAST to 1999, there is an unequivocal INVERSE correlation between housing and supply:
As you can see from the graph, which is from the St Louis Fed website, 5 months supply is not abnormal, historically.
FURTHERMORE, have you pondered how the month's supply metric is calculated? The "months supply" metric is largely worthless, as it is based on a rate of sales - the SAAR calculation - that is statistically useless.
Housing market apologists seem to be incapable of looking at the underlying fundamentals that drive home sales, which continue to deteriorate along with the rest of the country.
The housing market is rolling over quickly now and unless the FED drops another couple trillion in mortgage QE, 2016 will be a disaster for the housing market and the homebuilders.
Bezos admitted they lose a few billion on Prime. I show in detail how AMZN bleeds cash, is dependent on sales increasing every quarter so that cash in exceeds cash out every quarter - like a Ponzi scheme, and I review in-depth the employee RSU program (restricted stock units used in lieu of cash salary).
My report shows why AMZN will be an epic short when the stock market rolls over: http://tinyurl.com/jm5...
Couple questions: Are you aware that an 11x p/e is historically 2x higher than the very long run average for homebuilder p/e's? Are you aware that homebuilders go through now predictable cycles when there are multiple successive years when there is no "e" by which to calculate a "p/e?"
The average millennial graduates college with $30k in debt, not including credit card debt, and gets to take a job waiting tables or tending bar. How on earth with this generation ever be able to afford home ownership?
What happens to BZH margins if home prices roll over which, despite the Census Bureau nonsense, is starting to happen in several regions?
How will BZH make its huge debt payment due in September 2016 is the junk bond market will not refinance it, which is a very likely-looking scenario? Were you even aware of this massive debt bullet payment? You mention BZH's debt "burden" but it becomes a silver bullet in September.
For an alternative analysis on BZH, one which digs deeply into BZH's numbers, I would suggest readers look at the report here: http://tinyurl.com/o99... before jumping into BZH stock just because it looks "cheap" relative to the sector.
If you go see "The Big Short," you'll understand why the housing market is on the cusp of what happened in 2008...
These two mining stocks are two of the cheapest from market value:fundamentals basis: http://bit.ly/1MBYWa3
One of them is up quite a bit since July and I suspect it will acquired during 2016 for a huge premium. I know GG recently took a 5% position in the stock.
I'm about halfway done with my research report on KMI. It will be available here: http://bit.ly/1NVCRL0 People who subscribe to my Short Seller's Journal will have access to the KMI report for a deep discount.
Unless the prices of oil and natgas stage a big comeback, KMI is going under $10 by June. I have found several hidden landmines and instances of highly misleading accounting. KMI is a "Ponzi-esque."
Perhaps the biggest red flag is that the Company has not returned any of my numerous inquiries, both my email and by phone message. I started trying to get ahold of the Company about a month ago.
This has NEVER happened to me before except with one small fraudulent silver mining company.