I spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, I traded junk bonds for a large bank. I have an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance. Currently I co-manage a precious metals and mining stock investment fund in Denver. My goal is to help people understand and analyze what is really going on in our financial system and economy.
MACRO ECONOMIST with interest in P.M. & Miners. Wholeheartedly reject the inherently flawed & programmed to fail Fractional Reserve Banking System where $=Debt. I read Barrons' and IBD quotidian and am of the belief that b/c the FED has painted itself into a corner via nearly 7 years of ZIRP and ENDLESS QE, thus the Equities market is on the brink of collapse as banks have no incentive to lend (see $2.7Tn in EXCESS Reserves, which the FED pays interest to banks on over and above their required 10% ratios) and they will NEVER raise rates unless they intend to purposefully blow up the system. The Chapwood Institutes CPI measure, which is a REAL barometer of inflation that employs 500 of the most commonly bought items, concluded after a 5 year study from 2010 thru June of this year that REAL Inflation is at 9.9% YEAR OVER YEAR! They also found that since 2010, we've experienced YoY Depressions of 5%, which have culminated with a 22% Depression over the last 5 years! Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) are out the window! REAL Wages are down significantly since 2007, and there has been NO GROWTH in REVENUES since 2010. In fact, when I plotted REVENUE GROWTH for S&P from 2010-2015, it's actually negative. I then removed Auto Sales from the 5 year period and the graph looks like a 90degree angle, like Y= -X!!! This is because another asset bubble in Autos in brewing via NINJA loans circa 2006 whereby buyers can amortize the cost of a new $25,000 car for 8.5 years with 22.5% interest rates for $500 down and these securitized BLOCKS of car loans are now selling well, despite the fact that 35% of them are ABSOLUTELY GOING TO DEFAULT as nobody is going to pay $150K over 9 years to buy a $25K car! BTW, the marrow of our GNP, consumer spending, is manifestly not happening as Inventory levels of retail items currently sits at $136.7Bn and one of my favorite indicators, the Baltic Dry Index, which measures trade between countries, is frighteningly low, presaging a massive contraction of credit, which is destroying the veracity of all FIATS. China has an endgame scenario, and thanks to the 1,000 metric tons per month they got back via massive re-hypothecation AKA STEALING of others allocated Gold, they and Russia both have over 30,000 mTons, while we won't allow an audit of Ft Knox b/c it's simple. We have no gold and more importantly, we have no silver stockpiles! With the worst humanitarian crisis since WWII, I think we have a solid bottom under Au and Ag, and I expect Ag to outperform Au 5-6:1 over the next 5 years, which is not to say I don't think gold will be massively revalued to the upside as it is the speciously strong USD on the (DXY) which has caused oil, gold, silver, and platinoid metals to get annihilated further over the past 15 months. I strongly suggest buying Gold Mining Banks like First Mining Finance (FFGMF) or Brazil Resources (BRIZF) as they are buying 'in situ' gold for $7-$15/oz, depending on the grade of ore, and First Mining has a dream team of Managers including Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, Keith Neumeyer, Marin Katusa, and Doug Casey and buyers of this 32M share GOLD Bank include George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller and Ray Dalio, and more Billionaires are pouring in, realizing the potential of First Mining Finance, which already has 21 mines and plans to get to ownership of over 40 in the next 6 weeks while prices remain risible! Brazil Resources is headed by CEO Amir Adnani, who Rick Rule absolutely loves and who has bought 9 PHENOMENAL Gold Mines in Brazil, all adjacent to roads, water and electricity, and most of which have superb metallurgy (g/t), PLUS Amir threw a freeby in the mix and added one of his most coveted Uranium assets, located in the Athabasca Basin of Canada, juxtapose one of Cameco's largest Uranium mines in for kicks. Rule owns 20% of BRIZF and he is also CEO of UEC-Uranium Energy Corp. Uranium prices, like Au and Ag prices MUST RISE to meet oncoming demand. There are currently 82 Nuclear Facilities being built on the planet, and with spot Uranium prices at $38 and break even point at $75, Fission Uranium (FCUUF), Uranerz (URZ), and (UEC) are smart very cheap plays, while Cameco (CCJ) is the Guerilla of Uranium investments. Currently, I like the VIX, a healthy mix of Majors like Goldcorp and Newmont, Mid-Majors like Alamos Gold, Kirkland Gold, Fresnillo Plc, Tahoe Resources, Silver Wheaton, First Majestic, Pan American Silver, Guyanna Goldfields, Klondex Mines, Semafo, Richland Gold, Alacer Gold, Pretium Resources, Seabridge Gold, etc. I know of about 40 others that are currently $2.50 and under, just ask b/c with just $..87, I can show you a miner that is one of my LT favorites which has massive FCF and trades at just 5.1X FCF!
I am an investment professional focused on finding a sustainable path to earnings beats, preferably in beaten up compounders. I like investing in high quality companies, but my experience on the sell side taught me that it is hard to fight the power of a financial trend. Financial estimates, just like stock prices, are subject to human emotion. I believe big swings should be taken when Mr. Market and Mr. Estimate have created a compelling opportunity.