Barney Frank on Housing: No Wonder the Economy's a Mess [View article]
Oh, but they do. They know that if they cannot pull a rabbit out of the hat in in Housing then the whole US economy is doomed, and Government default will lead to dollar collapse, unless dollar collapse occurs first.
How Will Markets React to a Dollar Rise? [View article]
I don't think this a scenario we need be overly concerned about.
The only way the Dollar is going to rise is if the US Nukes everyone else out of existence. I think that is probably an unlikely scenario under this President, but I must say I had my doubts about the last one.
The problem is that the Keynsians have totally misunderstood the problem. Bernanake might have studied the Great Depression but he seems to have come to the wrong conclusion and when the Medicine does not work, he just ups the dosage. It never seems to occur to him or the rest of them that the patient is being given the wrong medicine.
In the 1930s the problem was solved by the Second World War. Effectively, the depression ended when their was an external stimulus to the Supply side of the economy. This created jobs, lots of jobs which in turn boosted consumer spending power. Japan by contrast has been moribund for nearly two decades despite stimulation of the demand side through low interest rates and QE.
The hard truth is the way out of this mess, other than starting another Global War and hoping it leads to a sustainable trade advantage, is to work on the Supply side at the expense of the Demand side much as Thatcher did in Britain. Once the supply side is reinforced over a period of sustained inward investment then the Demand side will pick up because the consumer is generating his own wealth. In the short-term this is likely to lead to more pain, but more pain is coming down the pipe anyway. It is just a question as to whether the pain is a means to an end or just mindless misery.
Believe it or not, what America actually needs right now are higher interest rates. OK, that is just about going to kill of the retail sector and housing market, but is trying to pump them up with endless stimulus going to solve the problem? The bitter truth is that America is going to have to grind its way out of this mess through hard work, but to ensure that the hard work is spent to best effect, capital investment needs to be maximized and this will only be achieved by higher interest rates which will increase savings and attract and retain capital into the US economy.
The alternative is to follow Japans example as a Carry Trade economy where investment capital has bled out around the World which has left the domestic economy on life support. It has taken twenty years for Japan to go nowhere and Japan started in a much healthier position that the US does now. The bitter truth is that Obama might be a nice guy, but he is never going to drag America out of this mess.
Some excellent points about the unintended consequences of government interference, however, on competitive disadvantage, one of the biggest problems Wall Street faces at the moment is one of trust. The World does not trust Wall Street and America does not trust Wall Street. Something does need to be done to turn that situation around, but somehow I doubt Obama is the man to do it. Hell, when it comes to finances this administration is clueless on its own budget.
Financial Times Debunks Citi's Memo [View article]
As soon as they tell it as it is without every statement being cloaked in mystery if not lies, then I guess that might be a possibility.
On Mar 11 07:04 AM apppro wrote:
> Can no one let it rest already? > Can we let the banks try to heal for a while? > Can we focus our attention to trying to rebuild what we allowed a > few to destroy? > > "Can we all just get along?"
Reality Check: Much Fewer than 10% of Americans Are Actually Unemployed [View article]
That is the most perverse argument ever, and frankly no politician in his right mind would use it for the fear of public backlash to the point of endangering is his own personal safety.
The numbers of people leaving the labor force have swelled as the government statiticians have struggled to keep the headline figure within the bounds of acceptability, if that is the right word. To now start to count those people previously excluded but who genuinely would like work as being in the labor force but still not count them as seeking work is not only perverse but downright evil.
Watching the USD Drop? Here's What You Should Really Be Watching [View article]
No issue here. The US is definitely doing much worse than other countries, and things are exacerbated because we can no longer trust Government and Fed statements. My advise is, if you are going to play Russian Roulette, then do Double Vodka shots between each click of the trigger.
It not about Entrepreneurs having ideas, it about being able to deploy Capital, and the willingness to do so.
If you want to see how things are going look at the latest news on GM. Yes, they have announced a new Joint Venture in China. Yep, the guy in Detroit worrying about his job is paying taxes so that Uncle Sam can subsidize the competition in China. Well if the Uncle Sam won't invest in America then who the hell is going to?
"Since 80% of the people interviewed on CNBC manage other people’s money, I’m guessing they are just trying to stay in business by lying to the average investor."
I have been bearish about the dollar for about 2 years. I could not understand its recent appreciation as a supposed "safe haven".
In today's environment, only a moron could describe the dollar as "safe haven". As for World Reserve Currency status, that is a privilege that comes with a requirement for discipline and that privilege has been grossly abused. The huge holdings of dollars around the World will just severe to make its inevitable implosion impossible to counter and much more severe. Oh, yes, and you can forget the World Reserve Currency status, the American Dream is about to turn into you worst nightmare. Unfortunately, the so called Green Shoots are just a false dawn, but they will lead many lambs to the slaughter. In the UK, mortgage rates are rising. They are going up regardless of what the Bank of England says. They are being determined by the money markets. It is a consequence of Government debt. It may take a little longer for most of the numpties to start trashing the dollar big time, but it will surely come, unless Obama really can walk on water. It has been 2000 years since that trick was last reported and frankly I don't believe those reports either.
Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012? [View article]
I think another 50% is just about given and long before 2012.
By 2012 it will be much higher simply because the Dow is denominated in dollars.
If you are based in Shanghai and denominated in Yuan even a three fold increase by then may not mean very much.
We are about to enter a highly inflationary era. Everything will be measured against constantly shifting datums. This is going to be a very confusing time for those who think in terms of Black and White.
Well if you feel that this charade that has been going on for the last year is actually a recovery, then the recession ended last year. If not then this is just the first phase of a prelonged depression that has been punctuated with a wasteful attempt to reinflate an imploding bubble.
Extending Unemployment Benefits: Buying a Few More Months Before the Economy Inevitably Slows [View article]
But he is correct that the bullet needs to be bitten sometime and there is no time like the present.
Personally, I would rather that Obama admitted how bad things really are and came up with some realistic strategies for getting the US out debt. Unfortunately, he was swept to power on a carpet of bullshit, and buying the November elections is about the shot he has left in his intellectually exhausted locker.
Barney Frank on Housing: No Wonder the Economy's a Mess [View article]
What if It Was All Just a Big Bubble? [View article]
How Will Markets React to a Dollar Rise? [View article]
The only way the Dollar is going to rise is if the US Nukes everyone else out of existence. I think that is probably an unlikely scenario under this President, but I must say I had my doubts about the last one.
The Hidden Depression of the 2000s [View article]
In the 1930s the problem was solved by the Second World War. Effectively, the depression ended when their was an external stimulus to the Supply side of the economy. This created jobs, lots of jobs which in turn boosted consumer spending power. Japan by contrast has been moribund for nearly two decades despite stimulation of the demand side through low interest rates and QE.
The hard truth is the way out of this mess, other than starting another Global War and hoping it leads to a sustainable trade advantage, is to work on the Supply side at the expense of the Demand side much as Thatcher did in Britain. Once the supply side is reinforced over a period of sustained inward investment then the Demand side will pick up because the consumer is generating his own wealth. In the short-term this is likely to lead to more pain, but more pain is coming down the pipe anyway. It is just a question as to whether the pain is a means to an end or just mindless misery.
Believe it or not, what America actually needs right now are higher interest rates. OK, that is just about going to kill of the retail sector and housing market, but is trying to pump them up with endless stimulus going to solve the problem? The bitter truth is that America is going to have to grind its way out of this mess through hard work, but to ensure that the hard work is spent to best effect, capital investment needs to be maximized and this will only be achieved by higher interest rates which will increase savings and attract and retain capital into the US economy.
The alternative is to follow Japans example as a Carry Trade economy where investment capital has bled out around the World which has left the domestic economy on life support. It has taken twenty years for Japan to go nowhere and Japan started in a much healthier position that the US does now. The bitter truth is that Obama might be a nice guy, but he is never going to drag America out of this mess.
Back in the U.S.S.A. [View article]
Financial Times Debunks Citi's Memo [View article]
On Mar 11 07:04 AM apppro wrote:
> Can no one let it rest already?
> Can we let the banks try to heal for a while?
> Can we focus our attention to trying to rebuild what we allowed a
> few to destroy?
>
> "Can we all just get along?"
Reality Check: Much Fewer than 10% of Americans Are Actually Unemployed [View article]
The numbers of people leaving the labor force have swelled as the government statiticians have struggled to keep the headline figure within the bounds of acceptability, if that is the right word. To now start to count those people previously excluded but who genuinely would like work as being in the labor force but still not count them as seeking work is not only perverse but downright evil.
Watching the USD Drop? Here's What You Should Really Be Watching [View article]
Job Losses Are Not the Problem [View article]
If you want to see how things are going look at the latest news on GM. Yes, they have announced a new Joint Venture in China. Yep, the guy in Detroit worrying about his job is paying taxes so that Uncle Sam can subsidize the competition in China. Well if the Uncle Sam won't invest in America then who the hell is going to?
The Debt Conundrum, Part 2 [View article]
Got it in one!
Will The U.S. Dollar Crash? [View article]
In today's environment, only a moron could describe the dollar as "safe haven". As for World Reserve Currency status, that is a privilege that comes with a requirement for discipline and that privilege has been grossly abused. The huge holdings of dollars around the World will just severe to make its inevitable implosion impossible to counter and much more severe. Oh, yes, and you can forget the World Reserve Currency status, the American Dream is about to turn into you worst nightmare. Unfortunately, the so called Green Shoots are just a false dawn, but they will lead many lambs to the slaughter. In the UK, mortgage rates are rising. They are going up regardless of what the Bank of England says. They are being determined by the money markets. It is a consequence of Government debt. It may take a little longer for most of the numpties to start trashing the dollar big time, but it will surely come, unless Obama really can walk on water. It has been 2000 years since that trick was last reported and frankly I don't believe those reports either.
Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012? [View article]
By 2012 it will be much higher simply because the Dow is denominated in dollars.
If you are based in Shanghai and denominated in Yuan even a three fold increase by then may not mean very much.
We are about to enter a highly inflationary era. Everything will be measured against constantly shifting datums. This is going to be a very confusing time for those who think in terms of Black and White.
Another Manic Monday: Greenspan Finally Agrees With Me [View article]
Are We Still in Recession? [View article]
Extending Unemployment Benefits: Buying a Few More Months Before the Economy Inevitably Slows [View article]
Personally, I would rather that Obama admitted how bad things really are and came up with some realistic strategies for getting the US out debt. Unfortunately, he was swept to power on a carpet of bullshit, and buying the November elections is about the shot he has left in his intellectually exhausted locker.