Dave Wrixon

Has Investing in America Become Passe?

It will happen, it has to happen, but America will on ever compete, it will never again dominate, but were are probably decades away from the point were America will again become competitive. In the meantime, the economy will contract not only in dollar terms but even more in absolute terms as the dollar becomes increasingly worthless. I can understand patriotism, but denial is not patriotism, it is simply folly. Those that fail to be proactive to bring about the changes required to make the US competitive are not patriots, they are populists.


On Aug 24 12:40 AM Zhubajie wrote:

> America produces (and sells, presumably) 20% of the world's manufactured
> goods, and the main reason is outright trade protectionism. If free
> trade is truly observed, that percent would drop to 5% in no time.
> The reality is that, whenever there is free trade, the competitive
> advantage will flow to the nations with the lower labor cost, unless
> there are technology factors (IP, etc.) preventing such flow. That
> IP gap is fast narrowing. Patents are only good for 20 years at
> most. Yet the pay gap is not. Today an engineer or technical laborer
> in America still cost 5-10 times as much as in India or China. So
> the trend is irreversible. America has long lost the competition
> in manufacturing. The protectionism is only a delay tactic. Those
> jobs are never coming back. It will take a 80% devaluation of the
> US Dollar to get to labor cost parity. I strongly doubt if that
> will ever happen.

Forget the 1930s; We're Reliving 1975 (Part II)

There are similarities and differences.

I think the main problem is Debt which was not such a massive problem in the 1970s, or indeed in the 1930s.

The Magnitude of the problem is probably more similar to the 1930s but there are elements that do bear resemblance to the 1970s.

However, I feel it is simplistic to jump to conclusions about how this will unwind. The event is triggered by Debt on an unprecidented scale, and was initially depressive in nature, but Bernanke has made sure that the it will be a primarily an inflationary contraction.

My guess is that upward pressure on interest rates and inflation will trigger a reversal of the stimulus recovery resulting in an even bigger second leg down. The underlying cause is probably due to one super-power supplanting another, as may possibly been partially the cause in the 1930s. Those that think we are out of the woods or this is mainly everyone else's problem are in for severe shock.

My Thoughts on Bernanke, Boeing and Citibank

Well not being an aviation engineer just a mere bridge engineer, I can still assure the connection of the wings to the fuselage is a pretty critical piece of the structure. If anyone want to get close and personal with some stress zones that is where you will find them. I personally doubt this is going to be a quick fix. Verifying the calculations for any proposed solution is likely to take forever, let alone producing the thing. Don't forget this bird still needs certification, unless a brown envelope still covers things that side of the pond.

Don't Count American Manufacturing Out Just Yet

Yes, but you consume them rather than sell them.


On Jun 09 08:53 AM MichaelJ007 wrote:

> You forgot to mention some of the true testaments to American Engineering
> and Manufacturing- Automatic Weapons, Fighter Jets, Missiles, Ships,
> Subs and Soldiers. We still make THE BEST!

Don't Count American Manufacturing Out Just Yet

"Which nation would you rather trust not to confiscate your assets on a whim, Russia, China or the U.S.?"

Ask the Chrysler and GM bond holders!

Top Dividend Yields of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

No you are right on the money. Last years dividends have already been paid. It is next years dividends that are of interest.


On Feb 04 09:21 AM aber wrote:

> hallo , nice article but...
> I really don't understand why BAC is still considered/write-about
> like a dividend stock !
> for what i know , and this is the reason because I "trashed" the
> stock , the next BAC dividend will be (if not cancelled totally)
> just 1 cent x share !
> And what about PFE that declared tu cut in half the next dividend
> following the "wyhet-deal" ??
> Am I wrong ? comment ?

Top Dividend Yields of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Much of the organization will survive, maybe even the name, but that does not mean that existing equity holder will still have a stake.


On Feb 05 05:02 AM jimko wrote:

> BAC will survive.
> They are all over the country and foreign countries.
> If they fail, some town will be left with no banks.

Top Dividend Yields of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Don't dividend yields price in bad news? The higher the yield, the lower the share price generally is compared with its historical value because next year's dividend is expected to be lower.

Indeed, high yielding stock should be a red light. It shows that the company is in trouble but the extent of the trouble has probably not been fully factored in. Unless, it the kind of business where somebody is going to flick at switch and suddenly it is 2006 all over again, then it is probably worth giving these shares a wide birth until they have bottom out and are at least showing tentative signs of recovery.

Most investors love income, which is why they obsessed with yields. My father is one of them. I can tell you know that has not protected him during this downturn. Having said that he is not exactly market to market. He rarely sells.