Dave Wrixon

Supply, Demand and the U.S. Dollar

And what is 7.5% spread over 30 or even 10 years worth in faced of annual inflation that could be approaching 20%?


On Nov 22 08:55 AM Old Trader wrote:

> "Holding to maturity won't solve anything if inflation has rendered
> your principal, which is denominated in dollars, worthless."
>
> David,
>
> I'm not certain that's true, because if the market anticipates interest
> rate increases, the value of an existing bond will drop to reflect
> the anticipated rate. So it depends at what point the bond is bought.
> If a bond is trading at 93, and is bought and held to maturity, the
> purchaser would receive par, resulting in a 7.53% return in ADDITION
> to the coupon of the bond, which would naturally be a below market
> rate.
>
> As the article points out, this is less likely to happen in a fund,
> since they typically trade securities, rather than holding to maturity.
> The only way a fund can mitigate the damage is moving into the short
> end of the yield curve to take advantage of increasing rates.

Supply, Demand and the U.S. Dollar

Holding to maturity won't solve anything if inflation has rendered your principal, which is denominated in dollars, worthless.

Weak Currencies, Stagnant Economies Weigh on U.S., U.K. Investors

Good article.

Profit from Weak U.S. Balance Sheet: Short Government Debt

Basically what you are saying is the US is in a Lose-Lose situation, so yes Shorting is Win-Win. But is not just the debt that is going to hell. It is also the currency in which the debt is denominated. However, their could still be severe gyrations as confused investors still talk about the US currency being a safe haven. Nothing will crystallize until this ridiculous illusion is shattered once and for all.

U.S Treasuries: Heading for a Rally or an Implosion?

If you wanted me to buy Treasuries I would be looking for a yield in excess of 30%, and even then I would not sleep nights.

Real and Fake: A Tale of Two Economies

Twas ever thus. Why do think the first thing you learn at school is to tell the time? How could they control individuals that cannot tell the time?

Tough Decisions Loom for the Fed

The Fed doesn't do tough decisions.

The last time it did that was when Volker was in charge.

It seems he has just about been silenced.

One Year Since the Banking System Collapsed. Has Anything Really Changed?

Yes, and people still have yet to realize that Ford is a dead donkey!


On Sep 08 04:41 PM Mr. Big wrote:

> I know what's changed. Lots have changed:
>
> 1) America is another couple of trillion dollars in debt
> 2) The fiscal deficit is ballooned to epic proportions
> 3) The legs of the USD has been amputated.
> 4) Americans are set to pay a lot more taxes.
> 5) There's only one American car company left.
> 6) More than 5 million additional Americans are out of work.
>
> I'd say that's change....big time.
>
> What hasn't changed:
> 1) The funding of social security and health care in America (or
> more precisely...the lack of funding).
> 2) Energy reform
> 3) Bank executive bonuses.
> 4) American politics
> 4) National security

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

In an economy where spending cuts and raising taxes are so politically unacceptable to effectively rule them out for the foreseeable future ratios of debt to GDP are almost meainingless. Add to this that GDP gives little very little indication of wealth generation and Debt/GDP ratios are not very meaningful.


On Aug 28 06:51 AM Clive Corcoran wrote:

> While I might agree with you that there will be a lot of clairvoyant
> pundits that are likely to be premature in calling the top I think
> you should not be quite so cavalier in the claim that "Financial
> armageddon is in the rear-view mirror"
>
> With a debt/GDP ratio approaching 100% (and that's on a benign view
> of the size of the debt) and with a lackluster recovery at best,
> imho, there are still a lot more twists and turns to the rolling
> financial crisis ahead.

Bernanke Has His Hands Full, Again

"We should all be thankful that it was Ben Bernanke who was at the Fed's helm when this crisis erupted. However, he was on board with Alan Greenspan's policy."

You are kidding? Right?

The Liquidity Canard

If your counting the same money up to a thousand times a day then you haver a very strange definition of liquidity. This kind of liquidilty is going to be of bugger all use if your average investors start dumping stock on mass. It will disappear faster than the steam on your morning coffee.

Roubini Is Right: Recovery Will Be Slow

I don't think it will be slow at all, ephemeral and transient almost certainly. It will here today and gone tomorrow.

Today May Be Markets' Turning Point

Well you might not be right but you will be close, and having the balls to put down a marker should earn you respect, provided you are not miles out.

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

No, by definition they are inanimate and don't do anything.

If you mean is the market about to collapse? Well, if you didn't already know the answer, you probably wouldn't even ask.

Preview from Europe: Stocks Continue to Defy Gravity...and Logic

The mere fact that you are offering 35-40% "Discounts" is just proof if it were needed that it is the Australians that are the market manipulators.


On Aug 14 07:09 AM Maxe Paul wrote:

> So this is where we are at with China and iron ore.
>
> China, not happy to pay a discounted contract price for iron ore
> (which every country bar China is happy about), and certainly not
> happy to pay a market spot price, are now trying their hardest to
> manipulate the price of iron ore by banning further imports and new
> steel mills.
>
> They are also not happy some people are buying at the spot price,
> because they want iron ore now, rather than wait for their (China)
> manipulation to succeed.
>
> Given they (China) are still not happy that this (the manipulation)
> is not working, they, China (one of the most corrupt countries in
> the world), then decide to arrest people from Australia (one of the
> least corrupt countries in the world) alleging corruption! LOL<br/>
>
> Now consider this.
>
> If China demanded a 40% plus discount on buying Gold bullion and
> refused to honour a current generous 35% discount and then tried
> to manipulate the current spot price because it was not happy, and
> then arrest employees of gold companies alleging corruption, how
> would the gold bugs feel?
>
> Mighty bloody pissed off i would think.
>
> This is manipulation people, plain as day, makes the gold manipulation
> theorists sound rather pathetic by comparison.
>
> And we Aussies put up with this farce without a whimper of complaint?