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  • Neurocrine Biosciences: Elagolix-Channel Checks And Expert Opinion Reveal Small Market Size, Unfavorable Incentives [View article]
    Jason,

    I really appreciate the comment. Don't worry about making errors, we all make them and you've got a great track record. My comments have came from starbucks and hotel lobbies so I'm make a few errors I'm sure.

    Much respect for your work. I'm now working for a New York bans so I'll contact you when I'm in the East Coast. (My role will be shifting from a contract research guy to a banker which unfortunately means going forward no more blogging due to obvious conflicts of interest)

    Best wishes,

    Dave
    Jan 10, 2013. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neurocrine Biosciences: Elagolix-Channel Checks And Expert Opinion Reveal Small Market Size, Unfavorable Incentives [View article]
    Jason,

    I appreciate the comment and I am a fan of your work. I appreciate the fact that you found some of my mistakes. The Lupron mistake was huge and I'm embarrassed to say I got that wrong. I'm somewhat upset by Lupron sales person who told me that information and Elagolix experts who didn't correct me when I discussed the side by side comparison. However there are a few mistakes in your comments.

    If you look at the clinical trial data you will see that the patents do in fact take the compound in 3-6 month intervals. Not coincidently, the same recommendation for lupron because they are both GnRHs. Suppression of the normal ovarian hormones isn't health for long periods of time. You would think that Elagolix would be in fact taken intermittently as it is a GnHR antagonist rather than an analog like Lupron, but it to needs to be taken daily. If Abbvie or Nuerocrine could show this compound can be taken intermittently, I am sold on this value proposition.

    -This fact came from multiple people who have reviewed the drug plus two Abbott consultants. Please, contact me privately if you wish for more details on these people. I'd actually like to pick your brain in the future as well.

    A hysterectomy is the normal surgery done for Endometriosis. If Elagolix could go after this market it would be a great opportunity but as I stated: You're asking physician to trade a treatment which gets them paid very well for a treatment that still has side effects, cannot be taken for long periods of time, and is more costs more if taken for a long period of time.

    I don't know why you estimated the market for Lupron in Endometriosis, Abbott releases the information right in its 10-ks.

    If Abbott thinks it's a billion dollar drug they must think it's the Oncology indication. Ask an ob/gyn what how they treat Uterine fibroids and see the stupid looks you get. I went through that embarrassment. Typically Uterine fibroids aren't treated.

    Keep putting out good research Jason. I'm at meetings around JPM Health Care all day so I won't be able to answer anything until this weekend. Hope this response was good enough. I'm currently in a very short break and want to get this out to you as soon as possible.

    Dave
    Jan 10, 2013. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neurocrine Biosciences: Elagolix-Channel Checks And Expert Opinion Reveal Small Market Size, Unfavorable Incentives [View article]
    The reason why I didn't include uterine fibroids was that very early on. Probably around the 5th or 6th ob/gyn, I kept getting this blank stare to the question: "How do you treat uterine fibroids?" Later on when asking a physician what he does for uterine fibroids he said: "If you have a softball size fibroid and you have this awesome new drug that shrinks it 60 percent: It's still the size of a baseball."

    You didn't solve any problem by shrinking it. Basically they said they aren't looking for uterine fibroids treatment.

    Typically uterine fibroids only present problem in the case of heavy uterine bleeding. This can be solved by both hormonal and non hormonal treatment.
    Jan 8, 2013. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neurocrine Biosciences: Elagolix-Channel Checks And Expert Opinion Reveal Small Market Size, Unfavorable Incentives [View article]
    Unfortunately, I don't know any internal plans. There are many factors to that question that I don't think even Abbvie or Neurocrine knows. From the people I spoke to they believe the compound will meet it's endpoints and has a safety profile better than Lurpon.

    This all comes down to pricing, margins, and competition which requires assumptions beyond the scope of this process. I really wanted to get facts and information from experts and minimize required assumption before writing this.
    Jan 8, 2013. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neurocrine Biosciences: Elagolix-Channel Checks And Expert Opinion Reveal Small Market Size, Unfavorable Incentives [View article]
    GA Anthony,

    This was part of a project that didn't result in being hired. I didn't want the research and data to go to waste.

    Perhaps the women's health professionals I spoke with differed from the ones Abbott and neurocrine spoke with. I have no idea who Neurocrine spoke with as they were reached out to multiple times and gave me no replies (IR, CFO, CEO, etc). I spoke with a few Abbott consultants and they did confirm my what the OB/GYNs in the field said: ie (cost is a huge factor in treatment decisions)

    If you want more in depth info on my research methods feel free to contact me. I cannot give names but I can give affiliations, names of companies, locations, and names of clinics.

    I have hold zero position so I honestly couldn't care less about the performance of the stock. Good luck to you as you build your position. Thanks for the interest in this research.
    Jan 7, 2013. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neurocrine Biosciences: Elagolix-Channel Checks And Expert Opinion Reveal Small Market Size, Unfavorable Incentives [View article]
    I would completely agree. I would also say that it helps that they have sales teams already entrenched in women's health. I believe Abbvie bought Elagolix specifically because it's a threat to Lurpon and because of the reasons you just stated.
    Jan 7, 2013. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Embryo Genetic Testing Like Illumina And BlueGnome's Version Doubles Rate Of 'Singleton' Babies From In Vitro Fertilization [View article]
    Great Article Rex! We really appreciate your industry insight.
    Oct 25, 2012. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Illumina In Play? Analyzing The CEO's Comments, Financials, And The State Of Business [View article]
    Great article and analysis. I'm in complete agreement and hold the same position.
    Sep 28, 2012. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming Wave Of Companion Diagnostics: Who's Making A Splash [View article]
    Baguboy,

    This is very good comment. Thank you for bring (HLCS) on my radar and other readers as well. I didn't mention it because I didn't see a contracted agreement with them and Pharma. You've made a lot of good argument for the company and I need to look more into it.

    Thanks again.
    Aug 14, 2012. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming Wave Of Companion Diagnostics: Who's Making A Splash [View article]
    NR,

    Thanks for the comment and the appreciation of the work I put in. I really do appreciate positive comments.

    I'm bullish on these companies as a whole and I don't think the market is pricing in an acceleration in CDx but I also think it's overpricing M&A. Overall I think the CDx part will win in the long run however right now I'm waiting for the post Roche/Illumnia ILMN bid M&A pricing to come down. Or at least get a better grasp on how it's affecting prices. Right now for example I'm focusing on doing detailed academic valuation.

    One example is Cepheid. I wanted to take a position in (CPHD) but it's just too pricey. I just wrote on it a couple days ago.

    Qiagen is one that I for sure looking at and may write about next. The problem with Qiagen is that it's so big and with so many parts its hard to value. I love its position as this go to CDx shop but they also have 4 or 5 other business segments that I'm not sure about.
    Right now it's the company I will most likely buy in the next couple months.

    GHDX and MYGN both have extremely high reimbursement (great for margins) but I've been very paranoid in the past because I wondered how long they could justify their tests with code stacking. Right now outlook looks positive with 3rd party payers in that front and they will be names I will look at.

    Once again thanks for the comment. You probably know the space well so please give me your insight when you got it.
    Aug 14, 2012. 12:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Disappointing Quarter Still Doesn't Make Cepheid Cheap [View article]
    Stephen,

    I went into the numbers and I'm in total agreement. I just submitted and unfortunately I'm not going to add a different view to the market. I'll let you know when it's published.
    Aug 9, 2012. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanosphere: The Next Cepheid? [View article]
    Thanks for putting this on my radar.
    Jul 24, 2012. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanosphere: The Next Cepheid? [View article]
    Thanks Jonathan, NSPH had been off my radar for a long time. Really, Cash flow positive in a year? They are actually placing their boxes now too?
    Jul 24, 2012. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Disappointing Quarter Still Doesn't Make Cepheid Cheap [View article]
    This name is conflicting...Exactly as your article suggests. I love CPHD's potential as it has just 9 tests (Last I checked) with only 13 by the end of the year but is already placed every major lab in the US/EU. Now it's going for small labs and developing countries. It CAN grow into its price for sure as it will have even more placements and a 20+ menu in 2014.

    It CAN grow into it potential is quite different from WILL it grow into it's potential.

    Great Article. I'm going to look deep into the company myself now.
    Jul 23, 2012. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Roche Offer To Illumina [View article]
    What Blinders are you talking about? The article is called "Analyzing the Roche Offer to Illumina?" It's not called "Illumina's Business in Focus."

    You're right that it's a more competitive market than it was a few years ago but they still lead in revenues and throughput. You're also correct that more companies are moving into sequencing.

    Are you going to complain that an article called "Analyzing the Roche Offer to Illumina" doesn't include the fact that GHDX just announced they are also moving into sequencing?

    Also the price didn't drop in July and October from competition as much as it was from a slow down in R&D spending. The percent of the pie isn't the problem it was the total size of the pie.

    And as I said that has stabilized.

    Price drop in October:

    http://reut.rs/xxvgtm

    The drop in July: How many times were Life Technology and Oxford Nanopore mentioned in the July 22 conference call, or Q&A? zero times! No one bother to ask about LIFE and Oxford Nanopore because they aren't important enough.

    http://bit.ly/wMZiLn

    In fact, neither of the two companies are even mentioned in at least the last 3 conference calls and Q&As. Why because they aren't material enough at this point. And certainly not material enough to be mentioned in an article call "Analyzing the Roche Offer to Illumina."
    Feb 29, 2012. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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