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David Addison  

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  • Want An Energy Company With High Profits Right Now? Check Out Valero [View article]
    VLOs rivals are not EXXON, CVX, Shell, or BP. The price oil doesn't matter for pure play refiners. Its the price spread between products and what they do with that spread that matters. VLO is well positioned for lower oil prices in addition being relatively better positioned to deal with heavy crudes once light shale oil production declines.
    Mar 20, 2015. 03:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Eagle Energy Corporation: A Bird In The Hand Is Worth Two In The Bush [View article]
    Good analysis.

    Can you link to anything that describes your analytic methods in more detail? I am trying to learn how to evaluate E&P.
    Mar 17, 2015. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Gem In The Energy Industry: Buying Vermilion Energy For Growth And Income [View article]
    One problem... gold is not like other commodities. There's enough supply in world reserves to sate global industrial and ornamental demand for centuries. There's enough oil in above-well reserves to sate demand for a week. Everyone freaks out when the Cushing Hub has a few weeks worth stored. Oh, so scary!
    Mar 7, 2015. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PBF Energy's Assets Trading Well Below Fair Value, Multiple Catalysts Ahead [View article]
    A long time.

    Actually, I initially became interested in refining due to the rich datasets made available by the Oil & Gas Journal and the EIA.

    Thank you for taking the time to read and comment.
    Mar 5, 2015. 03:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PBF Energy's Assets Trading Well Below Fair Value, Multiple Catalysts Ahead [View article]
    Oorah! Really a jarhead. Admittedly, when you put a bunch a jarheads together in the same area, the deafening roar of shouting and grunting and snarling is often mistaken for low intelligence. This, however, is just how we communicate.

    I'm a brand new PBF shareholder. The dislocation between between the company's assets at book versus fair value got me interested. The management team is what really compelled me to buy though. Also, the more I study the industry, the more convinced I am of the vital role of petrochems in everyday life.
    Mar 5, 2015. 02:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy Partners to buy Houston, Louisiana terminals from Valero [View news story]
    I think $60/share for VLO is around fair value based on the market for refiners.

    Also, I believe that some of the luster is rubbing off on the MLP story. This most recent drop-down transacted at about 9x Capital/EBITDA (which is lower than the previous drop-down). Moreover, most of the capital is from stock and debt. The value creation here is limited. Drop-downs are one way to raise relatively cheap equity, but depend on the market's appetite. Asset drop-downs are not holy grail for value creation.

    Although logistics assets are necessary to rationalize core refining assets, they are also just peripheral. The real value is in the actual refining assets. VLO is exceptionally well-rationalized and well-run. I believe that, over the long-haul, the company should be able to accrue to excess returns.

    Hopefully this provides some sense as to why we could see selling on strength.
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy Partners to buy Houston, Louisiana terminals from Valero [View news story]
    I think you are correct in that VLO is focusing more on refining.

    Also, VLO has the GP interest in VLP. Embedded within the GP are IDRs (i.e., incentive distribution rights) which mean that the more VLO grows VLP's distributions, the more pro-rata income they get to keep.

    Does this answer?
    Mar 1, 2015. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unveiling Herbalife's Earnings Disaster Shows The Pyramid In Collapse [View article]
    You don't care about the legality and still want the government to do what you stock market fanboys want. Sorry, this is not what *should* motivate policymakers.
    Feb 28, 2015. 02:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unveiling Herbalife's Earnings Disaster Shows The Pyramid In Collapse [View article]
    So, by your own logic, when a company loses customers, revenues and misses estimates, then its a sign of fraud unwinding? Get real. This is weaker than the short QCOR thesis. HLF is probably on the slide due to negative press from Bill Ackman and other shorts. If the shorts do succeed in tearing down this company, I hope they are proud of the destruction wrought.

    I think HLF's products are subpar, but that doesn't make the company a scam. As with so many things, caveat emptor.
    Feb 28, 2015. 02:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy Continues To Benefit From Current Market Conditions [View article]
    Nothing. CST is an independent company now
    Feb 21, 2015. 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Explosion at Exxon refinery raises fears for California gasoline prices [View news story]
    Small incident that no doubt politicians will use to demonize oil & gas. Effects will be short lived, however. Refineries shut down all of the time for planned and unplanned maintenance. Don't pay attention to the fear mongering.
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dropping It Like It's (Not That) Hot: VLO'S MLP Strategy In Focus [View article]
    Roger that. Writing this article was really a steep learning curve for me. I'm always learning new things. I knew LPs had much more limited say, but I didn't realize that the GP had so much.
    Feb 17, 2015. 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dropping It Like It's (Not That) Hot: VLO'S MLP Strategy In Focus [View article]
    No. It would be an interesting thing to model. Page 27 of January's investor presentation seems information (http://bit.ly/1KZhHGD). Any ideas on how to do that?
    Feb 15, 2015. 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dropping It Like It's (Not That) Hot: VLO'S MLP Strategy In Focus [View article]
    I'm not sure exactly how this works. I remember reading that the amount of the distribution which goes to the GP as opposed to the LP varies depending on the size of the distribution. Is this related? Can you post a link?
    Feb 14, 2015. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm confirms Chinese settlement, ups guidance [View news story]
    It's bad that Qualcomm caved into bullying. Sets a very dangerous precedent. However, that China would risk standoff shows how critical QCOM's technology is to the mobile revolution.
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
94 Comments
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