Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Portfolio App for iPad
Finance
(1)

David Allen

View as an RSS Feed
View David Allen's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Hutchinson Technology Reports A Profit And The Future Looks Bright [View article]
    2014. How early in 2014 depends on factors I can't predict, but I think the $10 target will be reached as it becomes apparent that a dependable profit of at least $25 million annually (~$1 per share) should be the expectation for fiscal year 2015 and beyond.
    May 15 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hutchinson Technology Reports A Profit And The Future Looks Bright [View article]
    Thanks, Tim. As a contributor to Seeking Alpha, I have tried to establish a reputation for writing about stocks that are not widely followed but offer exceptional growth opportunities, using fundamental analysis and careful research to support my conclusions... and being careful not to make excessive claims. In regards to the last point, I would rather have to come back later for any of my articles and apologize that I wasn't optimistic enough rather than have to apologize for being too optimistic.
    May 3 10:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Federal Law, Exports And Subsidies: Natural Gas And The Commerical Trucking Industry [View article]
    Good ketch, Listener! Yet still, an excellent article with very few typos!
    Apr 16 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hutchinson Technology: New Product Is Big News [View article]
    Thank you for your insightful comments, tjlhighroad!

    As an investor, I'd like to understand as much as possible about how my investments are likely to pay off, but most of all I'd just like them to pay off. I see your reasons why HTCH is a compelling buy to be complementary to mine!
    Apr 11 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hutchinson Technology: New Product Is Big News [View article]
    Hutch Tech holds over 250 patents. I've tried to read a number of them related to optical imaging. I'm not an engineer, but this patent (http://1.usa.gov/10NIhfn) struck me as being "most likely" an indicator of how their stabilization product might work. It indicates that a combination of two apertures with a algorithm for interpreting light sources is used.
    Apr 10 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Federal Law, Exports And Subsidies: Natural Gas And The Commerical Trucking Industry [View article]
    The other retort to those who assert the the trucking industry can't afford adopting natural gas, is: "Oh, then why is the new Cummins-Westport NG engine reported to be sold out for months in advance... and why are Cummins-Westport and Volvo planning to introduce additional long haul engines in 2014?"
    Apr 10 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hutchinson Technology: New Product Is Big News [View article]
    Thanks for your comments, gormless.

    You won't find anything about this on the internet because it has been a company secret. I learned about it because I live in Hutchinson and know many current and former employees. They probably shouldn't have told me what they did, but even so I have an incomplete picture. However, I was able to get confirmation that the product exists.

    My understanding is that the product will be competitive in the low end. Some believe the image stabilization will be a significant improvement over the software-based approach. If they can mass produce at a competitive price with a clear performance superiority, I believe they could capture a substantial revenue stream.

    Even without the new product, HTCH was on the road to recovery. The new product could put them back in the category of being a growth company.
    Apr 10 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arcam Expands Involvement In The U.S. Orthopedic Market [View article]
    An aerospace company ordered four machines for delivery in 2013.
    Apr 9 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Federal Law, Exports And Subsidies: Natural Gas And The Commerical Trucking Industry [View article]
    Great article (and no typos that I saw)!

    My take is that the power of the markets dwarfs the power of the government. Even without government action, the availability of relatively cheap and plentiful energy in the form of natural gas will lead to its production and consumption. The government may get around to passing laws either subsidizing or limiting its adoption, but irregardless of government action natural gas will become a dominant source of fuel over the next decade. I agree with the sentiment that it would be nice if the federal government acted sooner rather than later to subsidize natural gas adoption, but I am not going to hold my breath waiting for government action. In the mean time, I remain especially bullish about CLNE.
    Apr 4 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Can The Q1 Dog Turnaround In Q2? [View article]
    Thanks for the article and I agree with your conclusions, except that I've already held my nose and taken the plunge!
    Apr 1 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even At A Low Payout Ratio, Wells Fargo Has An Amazing Dividend Yield [View article]
    Good article. I am long WFC and generally agree with your conclusions, but I think the key question to be asking is "Why?". Why is WFC's performance improving so dramatically and why is this improvement likely to be sustained? I'm not sure I know the answer to this, but for now I'm happy to be along for the ride.
    Apr 1 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arcam Expands Involvement In The U.S. Orthopedic Market [View article]
    In 2012, Arcam generated positive cash flow of $1.5 million and ended the year with $7.6 million. During 2012, Arcam doubled their production capacity, so their facilities are now capable of producing a minimum of 36 machines annually. Based on this, I do not anticipate that Arcam will need additional capital in the foreseeable future.

    Hypothetically, were they to require additional capital, their options would be:

    1. Borrow, either from a financial institution or through the issuance of bonds. Given historically low interest rates, this would be the preferred method. As Arcam has a relatively strong balance sheet, this should be feasible up to several millions of dollars.

    2. Capital financing to acquire assets by working with the company selling Arcam assets to finance their purchase. For example, leasing assets or taking on debt with the asset as collateral.

    3. Partnership with a customer, for example working with a large company that wants to purchase significant volumes of machines from Arcam. They effectively pre-purchase machines at a significant discount, providing Arcam with the up front capital to expand capacity.

    4. Private placement, issuing a block of new stock to an investing organization in exchange for capital.

    5. Selling stock on the open market.

    I think #4 and #5 are unlikely at this time. Were Arcam to have substantial opportunities to expand but insufficient capital to do so, I think the most likely option would be:

    6. Arcam is acquired by a larger company.
    Mar 30 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arcam Expands Involvement In The U.S. Orthopedic Market [View article]
    Yes, they did receive an order from a university in Poland. This makes 6 orders received in the first quarter. Arcam entered the quarter with a backlog of 10 orders, with 6 scheduled to be delivered in 2013. Thus, in total, they have 12 orders for 2013. This is in line with my expectations that they will sell 25 machines this year and generate eps of $1.08.
    Mar 29 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    Hi, Dave. I continue to believe that Arcam will earn a little more than $1 per share this year and that future annual growth will be 25%+. These metrics alone cause me to believe that a share price of $30-$40 represents an attractive buy opportunity.

    What is especially exciting, however, is Arcam's move into the orthopedic market. See my article about this, reading especially the comments where a number of others have contributed important insights: http://seekingalpha.co.... This is a new product line that could generate in excess of $100 million annually in three to five years; if this were to occur (admittedly, a big "if"), this would represent extraordinary growth for a company with current annual sales in the $30 million range.
    Mar 28 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arcam Expands Involvement In The U.S. Orthopedic Market [View article]
    I do not believe the recent drop in Arcam's price is driven by any internal factors or news. I think it is a reflection of the Cyprus situation and the drop in European factory orders. Volume has not spiked, indicating that those selling are just taking whatever they can get; I think they are weaker hands and this means any positive news will push up prices strongly because it will be harder for new buyers to find shares for sale.

    For those of us who remain confident that there is a strong and growing market for 3D printers capable of producing product in titanium and cobalt chrome, any opportunity to buy below $35 should be seen as a gift.
    Mar 28 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
69 Comments
39 Likes