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David Allen  

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  • Amidst Multiple Distractions, PRA Group Keeps On Collecting [View article]
    Informative article; thank you!
    May 9, 2015. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: The Dirty Truth [View article]
    I guess the strategy of this article is to throw anything and everything at the wall to see if anything sticks. I wouldn't say this article is completely wrong, but it's wrong about a whole lot of things. Just to name a few:

    * The tax credits and gain on the sale of assets were clearly disclosed in the last quarterly report. Any investor could plainly see this information and take it into account in analyzing CLNE's performance.

    * CLNE's gallons delivered have been increasing at about a 20% rate. While it's true that LNG adoption for long haul trucking has not occurred as fast as originally expected, it is continuing to occur. Meanwhile, other aspects of CLNE's business, most notably CNG, RNG and LNG to fixed locations are continuing to grow at strong rates.

    * Stating that CLNE won't be able to pay off their convertible debt next year is the equivalent of saying I'm not going to be able to pay off my mortgage next year: yeah, so what? CLNE is on track to be adjusted EBITDA positive this year, which means that one of two things will happen next year: either the convertible debt will be converted to shares -- resulting in all shareholders owning somewhat diluted shares in a suddenly profitable company -- or the convertible debt will be refinanced -- resulting in lower interest rates and being that much closer to positive cash flow.

    * Senior employees are well compensated, but contrary to the hyperbolic rhetoric of this article, they were compensated at far lower rates in 2014 than they had been at 2012 -- just look at the charts in the article!

    I could go on, but hopefully the readers will get the point. As the author's disclosure states, they're short CLNE, so my sympathies are certainly with them. Unfortunately for them, but fortunately for me, I expect CLNE will be approaching $15 per share by year end.
    May 5, 2015. 03:42 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels Should Make It Through The Valley Of Death [View article]
    Excellent summary. CNG is, as you point out, growing nicely. CLNE has a dominant position in the fleet CNG market and delivery to fixed sites has huge upside potential. RNG is flat in part because they've sold RNG assets to reduce debt. LNG is a wild card. In a Mötley Fool interview a couple of weeks ago, Andrew Lillefair was positive about CLNE's ANGH, stating that long haul trucking companies are moving forward with LNG trucks and predicting most ANGH stations would be open by the end of 2015. CLNE needs to deliver about 30M more gallons per quarter to reach cash flow breakeven; your article is cautious about this, but I don't think there's any serious question about their doing this with current cash on hand. They probably need to double their current deliveries to legitimately be a $20 stock; I think they will get there, but I don't think it will be this year. Next year? I wouldn't at all be surprised.
    Mar 4, 2015. 05:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels Likely To Rally Strongly Through Year End [View article]
    Yes, still a strong buy.
    Feb 27, 2015. 12:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Hutchinson Technology [View article]
    Thank you for a thorough and thoughtful article. Good luck to HTCH investors!
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 3D Printer Arcam AB Shares Are Oversold, Undervalued, And Poised To Move Higher [View article]
    In his last comment on the subject (when the stock was trading near $30), the author said his cost basis was $22 and that he intended to buy more if the price fell below $30. I think it fair to assume he's well under water now.
    Feb 11, 2015. 07:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Natural Gas Conversion And A Stronger Network Will Lead To Growth [View article]
    Lots of good CLNE news released today: http://bit.ly/1vWZ8IM
    Dec 16, 2014. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Natural Gas Conversion And A Stronger Network Will Lead To Growth [View article]
    Nobody mentioned T. Boone Pickens sell off because there has been no sell off -- by Pickens or any other insider: http://bit.ly/1eFtBVl.
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Natural Gas Conversion And A Stronger Network Will Lead To Growth [View article]
    The VETC that has passed the house and pundits say is a shoe-in for Senate approval and a presidential signature, will probably add $30 million or so to CLNE's bottom line next year. Depending on how fast NG deliveries grow, CLNE could reach profitability in 2015.
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Clean Energy Fuels Looks Like A Good Bet At Its 52-Week Low [View article]
    One of the key questions about CLNE is how many trucks are converting to natural gas as a fuel. Unfortunately, the Navigant Research report that you cite as evidence that there will 35 million of these trucks on the road by 2020 is from the first half of 2013. The growth rate since this report was published has been significantly slower than this report had projected. How does that impact the opportunity for CLNE?
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels Likely To Rally Strongly Through Year End [View article]
    Your comment is right on target. With daily volume in CLNE now averaging about 1.6 million shares, and a float that's a tad higher than 70 million, the average share is now changing hands every 43 trading days. If you assume that the 34% held by institutions and the 24% held by insiders aren't a significant part of this volume, this means the average retail investor is owning CLNE for about 4 weeks. From my perspective, this is gambling not investing; as for me, I'm thinking in terms of years not weeks.
    Nov 29, 2014. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    Thank you very much -- I will look into it!
    Nov 28, 2014. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    It was a good tip, but I'm afraid I failed to follow through. Thanks anyway!
    Nov 27, 2014. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Google's Fair Value [View article]
    Using reasonable assumptions based on Google's current businesses, I am not persuaded that the stock is much of a bargain. But, to be able to buy this stock at a reasonable price while also ensuring that I will be on board if one of their skunk work projects hits a home run (e.g., astroid mining, self-driving cars, worldwide internet, extending human longevity) -- this is a no-brainer: of course I need to own this stock.
    Nov 13, 2014. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Google's Fair Value [View article]
    Nice article. Could you explain why you assumed margins of 39.5% - 43% in years 2014 through 2018, when the 2013 margin was only 30.5%? Did you do a sensitivity analysis to determine what the projected fair value would be if margins were not as high as you assumed?
    Nov 12, 2014. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
221 Comments
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