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David at Imperial Beach

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  • A Discontinuity That's Not In The Market [View article]
    The upward sloping line is pricing in the very factor you are talking about. Why you think it should be discontinuous at the red line evades me. Looking at the Contracts column of your Projects table shows why there is not more discontinuity. Most of the projects are already fully subscribed.
    Sep 16 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors cleared to sell directly to consumers in Massachusetts [View news story]
    What problem? Thanks to the Fed, the auto makers can raise plenty of cash, as can every other Fortune 500 company. They buy out their dealers and then hire them back as field managers, if they're any good at managing. To avoid the hassle of getting 50 states to change their protectionistic legislation, they get the federal government to preempt it like they should have long ago.
    Sep 15 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commitment Of Traders Report Offers Investors Much Optimism On The Gold Price [View article]
    In Q4 last year, the price of gold was higher than it is now, and miners had started to hedge. Surely they are hedging at this price. Further, Chinese buyers were scooping up gold last year when it went "on sale" due to the ETF dumping. Surely now that it is "on sale" again they will be back at the trough.
    Sep 15 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Storms Headed Towards Tesla's Ship [View article]
    Speed bumps. They're all just speed bumps, and the Model S has Smart Air Suspension.

    Concerning the Chinese sales tax exemption, here's Elon Musk's full response: "Actually I've been pretty impressed with the Chinese government at all levels, the city level and the national level. They're actually -- I mean they have done some political [ph] actions maybe quite a bit in the past, but I don't think that's going to be the path going forward for them. And actually for the sales tax exemption, it does actually apply to non-Chinese cars. So I think you may be missing a point [ph] there. There are -- we have to adhere to Chinese charging standards, but we are going to do so. But the challenge was that those standards weren't defined until about a month ago. So it's a little tricky to adhere to something that is not yet definitively been announced. Now that it has, we're committed to meet those standards, and we expect to fit within the sales tax exemption. Yeah." As you can plainly see, he is saying that he knows Tesla has to comply with the Chinese charging standards in order to qualify for the tax exemption and he intends that Tesla will do so as soon as possible.
    Sep 12 07:50 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Storms Headed Towards Tesla's Ship [View article]
    Probably cheaper to just donate to a few key federal congressmen and senators and get federal law passed to preempt all state laws pertaining to auto sales. It's well justified under the constitution and there's lots of precedent for it in other industries.
    Sep 12 07:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Storms Headed Towards Tesla's Ship [View article]
    What $43,000,000? How did you come up with that figure when every headline on the internet says $1.3 million max in tax abatement?
    Sep 12 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Storms Headed Towards Tesla's Ship [View article]
    Tesla's position is that they are in full compliance with Georgia law. We'll see how that works out if they end up in court, but they have credibility with me.
    Sep 12 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Remain Bullish On Gold With 8.95% Expected Returns [View article]
    US exports was looking like it would be one of the bright spots in the economy until the ECB decided to push the euro lower. Now the dollar is outrageously high and exports will surely falter and imports will rise. This will cut into our GDP from both sides since imports get subtracted from GDP. Expect US GDP to falter as well. Not good timing since this is also when the Fed will be completing their taper. Gold holders need to be patient until the dollar weakness is revealed.
    Sep 12 07:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Not All Glitter And Glamour [View article]
    Outsold in what? Not long range pure electric vehicles.
    Sep 12 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - Waiting On A Russian Rebuttal To The EU [View article]
    The Fed itself doesn't dump futures. That is done by other banks with commodity trading operations, and speculators with margins financed by banks through brokerages. But your instincts are right that commodity prices are under heavy manipulation.

    However, like most heavily anticipated news, it is far more likely that when the actual end of QE arrives that commodities will rise. Speculators always sell when the news they are speculating on finally arrives.

    The price of gold has been pushed down enough at this point that we should start to see shortages of physical metal again soon.
    Sep 12 02:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ultimate Contrarian Trade: Get Long Gold Against Stocks [View article]
    If you want to short something while being long gold, then short the euro. (EUO) is up and should continue to climb higher.
    Sep 12 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ultimate Contrarian Trade: Get Long Gold Against Stocks [View article]
    I for one don't plan to panic if gold goes to $1000 per ounce. I plan to go 3x long. I don't actually think we're going that low, but we might retest $1,192-$1,195.

    Europe has deteriorated to an alarming degree from last year. I think it is now a very real question if the euro will last, whereas I scoffed at the idea that Greece could bring it down last year. But now even Germans are unhappy with the results of the experiment. A weak euro, of course, makes the dollar look stronger, and that in turn puts pressure on all commodities, including gold. But what happens if the euro experiment fails? Will they capitulate and start trading in dollars? Unlikely, even though capital has been fleeing the euro for the dollar. European central banks just happen to have lots of gold. It is in their best interests to move to a gold standard, not a dollar standard.

    But gold doesn't really have any further that it can fall without affecting supply and demand in nonlinear ways. In Q4 last year, miners hedged 17 tonnes rather than sell it at a price of $1276.16, and we're below that now, so you can expect hedging to be taking place. Recyclers' production was down in Q2 because they already couldn't find sufficient scrap to process at these prices. Their production will fall further. In addition, last year as prices were falling due to ETF dumping, the Chinese stepped in and bought up the excess tonnage. One can expect similar behavior this year as prices fall.

    Price overshoots are like springs. The more they are distorted to the downside, the more upside potential they have. Visualize every drop in the price of gold as adding further energy to the subsequent upswing.
    Sep 12 01:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ultimate Contrarian Trade: Get Long Gold Against Stocks [View article]
    Not quite right. Now is the time to be accumulating gold for the long term. But now is probably not the time to be shorting the (SPY). It has leveled off at the 2000 level for three weeks now, but we still don't have an actual change of trend yet. The safer course is to be holding cash on the sidelines and move once you see an actual change of trend.
    Sep 12 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ultimate Contrarian Trade: Get Long Gold Against Stocks [View article]
    Not only that, but it costs $0.00 to add dollars in any amount to M2. It's just a bookkeeping entry, a modification of bits in a computer. It costs about $1200 for a miner to add an ounce of gold to the world's supply, and as richer ores run out, that cost can only rise, even if by some miracle there is no inflation.
    Sep 12 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How And When To Short Tesla [View article]

    I suspect you spent too much time working the financial numbers and no time driving the car and interviewing owners and in other ways trying to judge how big the market is and how enthusiastic owners and potential owners are. I see a lot of people stretching their budgets to buy a Model S. They would not be in the market for any other car in this price range, but they are willing to go outside their financial comfort zone to own a Model S. Furthermore, they are highly motivated to share their Tesla experiences with their friends and neighbors. That and the extremely small current market share of EVs in general tells me that Tesla can sell hundreds of thousands of Model S and Model X per year, and millions of Model 3 before running into a demand ceiling.
    Sep 12 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment