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David at Imperial Beach  

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  • Why The Next Stock Market Collapse Won't Be A 'Black Swan' [View article]
    Was buggy whip manufacturing really a capital intensive industry? I think not. Your argument is yet another variation on "it's different this time." Of course it's not. Bubbles always pop. Always.
    Feb 20, 2015. 05:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Next Stock Market Collapse Won't Be A 'Black Swan' [View article]
    The Fed pursued a very easy money policy leading up to the 1929 crash, which is why the decade was called the "Roaring '20s".
    Feb 20, 2015. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dirty Little Rare Earth Secret [View article]
    Tesla has made a concerted effort to avoid any use of REEs. Apple obviously has not.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Bonfire Of The Money Printers' Vanities [View article]
    Just possibly the most unfair article about Tesla I've ever seen on Seeking Alpha. I normally feel that David Stockman's venom is well-directed and well-deserved. But in this case he aimed for the Fed and hit an innocent party.
    Feb 20, 2015. 03:28 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Vs. Tesla [View article]
    EVs do not burn coal. They consume electric power generated from any source, including renewables as well as coal and other fossil fuels. Get back to me when your existing ICE vehicle can take advantage of new wind power installations and new solar power panels. EV energy consumption is so efficient that they consume less electrical power than it takes to refine a tank of gasoline.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Vs. Tesla [View article]
    Henry Ford did not invent the V8 engine. That was a Cadillac first.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Vs. Tesla [View article]
    Remote start is not the same as being able to warm the interior and the engine with house current. You were using gasoline, and reducing your range accordingly.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Early numbers on Gigafactory costs start to come in [View news story]
    Actually, we do have a very good idea of what Tesla's inventory includes. Tesla has inventory in three categories: 1) work in progress, 2) completed vehicles either in shipment to customers or being used as demo units and loaners, and 3) parts in stock at service centers. It would be surprising if inventories did not increase drastically over the last year. The number of service centers increased, the number of vehicles being shipped overseas increased, and production capacity was increased. It would be nice if the company would break out the above categories in its letter to shareholders, but to say that we don't know what the lump sum of $953,675,000 for cy2014 consists of is disingenuous.
    Feb 19, 2015. 07:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Early numbers on Gigafactory costs start to come in [View news story]
    Or they could omit the inefficient electrolysis step converting electrical energy to hydrogen gas and simply pump the electricity into the grid. But first they have to get their technology out of the laboratory.
    Feb 19, 2015. 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mind-Blowing: China Consumes More Gold Than The World Produces [View article]
    Well, the 300 tonnes mined is obviously not the total supply. Recycling according to WGC numbers is currently producing about 35% of mined supply, or another 103 tonnes in the period under discussion. So total supply during the period according to WGC counting methods would be about 403 tonnes, which obviously exceeds the 315 tonnes of Chinese demand. But I have to question how thoroughly the WGC is counting Chinese supply. I don't think for a minute that China is importing 315 tonnes from the rest of the world, and the Chinese aren't reporting domestic production to the WGC at all, so far as I know. I doubt that any of the 403 tonnes includes anything produced by Chinese mines. What's crucial for the global price of gold is not Chinese withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange, but imports from the rest of the world into the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Until recently China imported almost all of its gold through Hong Kong. That's no longer true, and true Chinese import numbers are deliberately hidden while Hong Kong numbers are falling.

    The Shanghai Gold Exchange gets gold from three sources: domestically mined gold, domestic scrap gold (domestic bars, coins, and jewelry that must be recast in order to be resold on the exchange), and gold imports. It does not, so far as I know, publish figures on its sources. From what I've been able to determine, Chinese mines produce about half of domestic demand, and recycling accounts for another 1/3. So if demand is 315 tonnes in a period, then we can expect domestic mines to supply about 157.5 tonnes, and recyclers to supply about 52 tonnes. This leaves a shortfall of 105.5 tonnes to be imported. Obviously the real percentages can vary from these estimates, but as a rough cut these estimates are much closer than merely assuming that all 315 tonnes of Chinese demand were met by imports.
    Feb 19, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misconceptions About Gold [View article]
    You can't completely understand the gold market without acknowledging that gold is both a commodity and a currency. There is no either/or, it is both/and. At least half of all gold sold every year is fabricated as jewelry. In some years, such as 1995 and 1997, supposedly 100% of all gold sold was fabricated as jewelry, according to your own chart. This is not insignificant demand, and as you yourself admit, except in India jewelry demand is mostly not investment motivated. On the other hand, 2/3 to 3/4 of all gold sold is newly mined gold every year. The majority of the remainder is recycled gold. In other words, 2013 was exceptional in that gold holders only rarely panic and decide to sell tons of gold into the market at whatever price they can get. Most gold holders are content to hold their gold for decades at a time, especially if it is fabricated into jewelry and art pieces and collectible coins that they value above the scrap price of the gold. As I have pointed out before, there is much more gold stockpiled than silver. If the market was dependent to a significant degree upon how big the stockpiles were, gold could easily be priced at parity or even less than silver, but it's not now and never will be priced anywhere close to parity with silver.
    Feb 16, 2015. 07:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla To Be The Next Apple? Here Are 8 Reasons Why It Won't [View article]
    Your poorly cited study makes no sense. Why would there ever under any circumstances need to be a charging station every half mile if EVs like Teslas have minimum ranges of 200 miles? Even if you've got a really crappy EV that only has 30 miles of range, you should still be able to get by with charging stations spaced every 15 miles apart.

    The electric grid is sized for peak loads. There is a lot of excess capacity that goes unused during off-peak hours. That capacity can be used to charge vehicles at home without increasing grid capacity at all. We only have to worry about increasing the grid when EV charging at night shifts the peak load to nighttime, and that's a long way off.
    Feb 16, 2015. 06:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla To Be The Next Apple? Here Are 8 Reasons Why It Won't [View article]
    " An IC car or hybrid IC car can go and go and go until you ..." run out of money to feed the beast any more fuel. With supercharging, a Tesla does not have that limitation.
    Feb 16, 2015. 05:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla To Be The Next Apple? Here Are 8 Reasons Why It Won't [View article]
    Nikola Tesla died alone, he did not die broke. That's pure propaganda. He maintained himself in a two room suite at the New Yorker Hotel until the day he died. He did get into financial trouble when J P Morgan pulled out of the Wardenclyffe project, had to sell it and ended up owing taxes on it that he couldn't pay in 1917. But he died in 1943, some 26 years later. Surely the New Yorker Hotel would not have put up with unpaid bills from one of its guests occupying one of its luxury suites for 26 years! His estate included a full 80 boxes of artifacts that were shipped to Belgrade in 1952. Surely if he had outstanding bills those boxes would have been put up for auction.
    Feb 16, 2015. 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Key Takeaways From Recent Events [View article]
    Your expectations are completely unrealistic. You complain when the company warns that it will end up delivering 2000 fewer cars than initially projected for 2014, then complain again when it shaves that number to 1400 fewer. That's actually a win of 600 in my book, especially when it actually produced all 35K and only failed to deliver 1400 by the deadline.

    Profitability? Why are you so concerned about profitability when the company's plan is to spend money hand over fist to increase production and sales and service capacities worldwide? You're being completely irrational, and you're trying to hold the company to numbers put forth by equally irrational analysts who fail to understand the company's clearly stated strategy. What you have so far failed to acknowledge is that the analysts' EPS estimates were never within the realm of possibility to start with.

    Of course the company's ultimate purpose is to make money. But in capital-intensive industries like automobiles you have to raise and spend capital to make money. Tesla from the start has stated that the money earned on the Roadster gets spent on the Model S, and the Model S money gets spent on the Model 3. How can any sane person read such statements and conclude that there must be lots of leftover profit along the way to satisfy the greed of investors such as yourself? Talk about people who need a reality check!
    Feb 16, 2015. 04:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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