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David at Imperial Beach

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  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    What you're calling waves are merely bathtub splashes.
    Aug 19 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    LG has not yet announced a gigafactory. Until they do, they can only deliver small quantities of batteries, no matter how advanced. These will have to be made on small, unoptimized assembly lines, and thus must cost more than the Tesla Model 3 battery pack.
    Aug 19 11:21 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Assuming you have solved the cost problem with the battery, the rest of the drivetrain is MUCH simpler and cheaper than an ICE or hybrid vehicle.

    It's clear to me that other manufacturers cannot compete with Tesla on price. And the situation will only get worse after the gigafactory.
    Aug 19 11:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Maybe, perhaps, in test quantities only. The company refused to confirm the substance of the article... "An LG Chem spokesman declined to confirm. "
    Aug 19 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Dow Overvalued? Comparing Historical Valuations With Fundamentals [View article]
    The best reason for holding the view that stocks are heavily overvalued is not that the PEs or CAPEs are consistently outrageous (though there are plenty of cases of that), but rather that earnings must eventually revert to mean. Many companies are barely growing revenues at all, yet they are showing extraordinary, once-in-a-lifetime earnings per share increases. How do they do it? It would be nice to think that they are making capital improvements and process improvements to increase productivity, but they are doing none of that. Productivity is not increasing, nor is capex. Primarily they're doing it by borrowing money at outrageously low interest rates and buying back shares. This is very clearly unsustainable. Even if interest rates stay low forever (which they won't) companies will eventually run out of ability to repay any further debt.
    Aug 19 03:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With Gold? [View article]
    Sorry to disappoint, but we've already seen the bottom in gold. Those waiting around for $950 gold will find themselves holding an empty bag all night long in a fictitious snipe hunt. Gold has already done better this year than most stocks and bonds. Compare GLD to SPY and DIA year-to-date total returns if you don't believe me. Despite official figures for major gold markets like China and India being down significantly from last year, the physical market is holding reasonably firm, down only 7% comparing H1'14 versus H1'13. Miners are struggling to find ores rich enough to mine at this price, so it won't last forever. Now is the time to buy if you want in on the next rally. Gold is heavily undervalued while stocks and bonds are heavily overvalued. Ignore those who complain that it hasn't made a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. It retraced to 50% and there's nothing written in stone that says it has to drop even that far.

    WGC numbers are in for Q2. They show that miners were actually able to sell record tonnage (815 tonnes, 765 from production and 50 from hedging stock) this quarter (compared to the previous 7 quarters). Recyclers were only able to find 263 tonnes to process at these low prices, the second lowest quarter of the last 8. Total supply was slightly below average at 1078 tonnes. Central banks were once again buyers, accounting for 118 tonnes. Non-reporting entities chose to buy 106 tonnes to replenish stock after having sold 40 tonnes last quarter (revised from 26.4 tonnes). ETFs sold a net 40 tonnes, up from last quarter's 3 tonnes, but far from the triple digit hemorrhage levels of last year.

    It should also be noted that the WGC/Reuters methodology is not able to trace all flows to China and India due to non-reporting ports of entry into China and smuggling into India. Thus, the demand side of the above picture is incomplete.
    Aug 19 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla An Energy Company? [View article]
    Fuel cells (fool cells to Muskovites) are not part of the Tesla plan. They are generating electricity using PV solar panels provided by SolarCity. At the gigafactory where they have plenty of space they may also employ wind power. Lithium batteries are already cheaper than fuel cells, and can be used everywhere fuel cells can, so there is no reason whatsoever to use fuel cells.
    Aug 18 07:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla An Energy Company? [View article]
    The complete picture is a supercharging station with a solar PV canopy generating electricity, and battery storage capacity to gather up that electricity and provide it to the vehicles at a much faster rate than the PV panels can produce it. So yes, batteries are included.

    The batteries and the solar panels are optional pieces that can be installed later as the capital becomes available.
    Aug 18 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Gold [View article]
    "One may ask; well, if interest rates rise won't the price of gold fall? And the answer is there are many times in history where interest rates and gold prices increased at the same time." Good point. The reason higher interest rates would make the price of gold fall is if the higher interest rates enticed investors away from gold and toward bonds. But in the current market, gold investors have already been largely enticed away into stocks, so interest rates don't have a lot of pulling power on those who remain. The remaining demand for gold is largely central banks and non-investment demand.

    However, in the current market a lot of investors are fearing the higher interest rates to come and have illogically jumped from stocks to bonds prematurely. Existing bonds lose value with higher interest rates too. So right now we have the situation that both stocks and bonds are priced extremely high, and gold is priced down near the cost of production (AISC). It only makes sense that when higher interest rates finally do come, it will be stocks and bonds that have big falls, while gold owners will escape relatively unscathed.
    Aug 18 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Gold [View article]
    Pretty hostile comment. The author is still a business student. Cut him some slack. How about a helpful critique of the article before you?
    Aug 18 07:18 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Gold [View article]
    The Feds are not watching inflation like hawks. It is barely even on their radar screen, not the #1 thing they are worrying about. They have 2% PCE as a target, but are making it perfectly clear that they are willing to tolerate inflation quite a bit higher than that before they let it change their policies. I'm not sure they're willing to go all the way to 4%, but even 2% is more inflation than I'm personally willing to tolerate with my savings. I don't want to lose nearly half my purchasing power in 30 years.
    Aug 18 07:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Retailers Could Be Headed For A Disaster [View article]
    Those of us who looked at the actual reports and results, and not just the headlines, were never convinced that weather was the cause of the slowdown. How come it wasn't just construction and other outdoor activities that was hard hit, but also factory work? How was it possible for Chrysler to have good weather when GM and Ford were having bad weather? The truth was, Chrysler was offering enough incentives to get customers into the showrooms and signed up on the dotted line, and GM and Ford weren't. Everything was pointing to a liquidity crunch, not weather.

    Right now, we're in a very gradually closing liquidity vice as tapering is on track to end in October, and interest rates to rise at least nominally next year. At some point the economy will start to spasm in pain at the pressure. Retail is just one of the first victims among many to feel the pain. The auto industry is positioned a little closer to the liquidity spigot, since the major automakers are able to finance many auto sales themselves through their financing subsidiaries. Also, many savings and loan companies specialize in auto loans.
    Aug 18 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia may ban car imports if West imposes new sanctions [View news story]
    (NASDAQ:TSLA) won't be affected. I know of no efforts yet to sell Teslas to Russians.
    Aug 18 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia may ban car imports if West imposes new sanctions [View news story]
    "China, the enemy of all nations that value freedom and human rights." That's pretty jingo-istic. All central governments hate freedom and don't think twice about human rights violations. In case you hadn't noticed, the feds have been busy eroding your freedoms here in the US for decades and this no longer feels like the "land of the free". We're living in a police state only one signature away from martial law at all times. The POTUS, the congress, and the supreme court do pretty much whatever they want and ignore the founding documents that are supposed to restrict their activities in the interests of the freedom of the people.
    Aug 18 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Gold Break Out Of Its Trading Range? [View article]
    Up. It will definitely be higher than today. If nothing else changes in the next five years, (wars, rumors of war, riots, strikes, monetary collapse, economic malaise, inflation) gold miners will be running out of the ores that they can mine at this price. How high? Pick a number. It really doesn't matter. Just for fun I'll pick $2500 per ounce. All you really need to know it that it can't sustainably go lower than today.
    Aug 18 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment