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David at Imperial Beach

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  • What's Caused The Commodity Bull Market To Derail? [View article]
    Crimea. Not Georgia. Not Croatia.
    Sep 18 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. agency proposes plan to oversee nonbank car-loan providers [View news story]
    Does this really apply to Tesla? Doesn't it use bank financing?
    Sep 18 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A 1000% Gain Looks Like [View article]
    It wasn't a viable company before Musk's cash injection and leadership. He definitely deserves the title co-founder.
    Sep 18 11:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk expects fully autonomous vehicle in five to six years [View news story]
    "Exists" in this case is a relative term. Google's system is only a test bed, an exercise in artificial intelligence. It is not a product. It would take major cost reductions to make it a product.
    Sep 18 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Gold Disprove Marginal Utility? [View article]
    Human beings are complex creatures with many needs. One cannot blithely assume out of hand that diamonds and gold have no utility and then base any useful theory on that unproven assumption. The assumption is patently false. Diamonds and gold both have utility, enough in fact to motivate buyers for both in times of surplus far above the buyers' more prosaic needs to support life itself. If you have surplus wealth, would you rather have a lake of water or a diamond ring and 24 karat gold? It is much easier to store the ring in a jewelry chest than to store a lake of water. The ring is also much more portable. If you are so practical-minded that you would choose the lake of water, then ask your wife.
    Sep 18 10:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM And Intel: The End Game For IBM Semiconductor [View article]
    Since Buffett failed to buy Microsoft in the first decade of its existence, that was another screw-up.
    Sep 17 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM And Intel: The End Game For IBM Semiconductor [View article]
    The reason BRK is undervalued is because it is a CEF in disguise and CEFs nearly always trade at a discount to NAV. Furthermore, because BRK is disguised as an insurance company, it does not publish a NAV and it happens to be very difficult to calculate one for it.
    Sep 17 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: The Era Of $99 Windows Tablets Is Here [View article]
    Win 8 gets a big thumbs down because it's like talking to someone who is schizophrenic and each personality speaks a different language. It's just plain unpleasant and inefficient to have to use two different sets of user interface conventions to talk to the two parts of the operating system. Furthermore, the new conventions are an obvious step backward for users with large screens and mice. There is exactly zero improvement to motivate learning the new interface.
    Sep 17 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Such Thing As Investing In High Growth Tech Stocks [View article]
    The trouble is that a gamble on a high growth tech stock frequently pays off better than a more quantifiable investment in a more established company that can't grow as much. The whole reason high growth companies aren't accurately quantifiable is precisely because they are growing too fast to be predictable, or at least have the potential to do so.

    (MBLY) is in an entirely new industry, and apparently has no competition. Furthermore, that industry could grow very quickly if government or insurance company mandates force use of such safety equipment in all new cars.
    Sep 17 03:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    Tesla builds many parts in-house, starting from raw rolls of aluminum sheet. But there are literally thousands of parts in a car, and thousands of suppliers. Some parts shift from in-house to an outside supplier (like Foxconn) or vice versa (like Panasonic for the battery cells). Neither Tesla nor its suppliers are perfect, but Tesla does have an ongoing program of addressing any issues as they are discovered and correcting them at the source.
    Sep 17 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    They are deliberately not advertising since they cannot build cars any faster than they are. Instead, they are using the money to build the supercharger network.
    Sep 17 03:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    It's not that simple to add capacity to an auto manufacturer. An auto plant can't build just any car. It can only build the exact model or models it was designed for. Thus, even if other auto makers were offering to lease spare plant capacity, Tesla could not take advantage of it. Such spare capacity is essentially worthless.

    But as doubleE has already explained, Tesla already has a factory at Fremont that originally was planned to produce 500K vehicles for GM and Toyota. Tesla can build additional production lines in the available space and grow the company to their projected size of 500K vehicles and not even go hunting for another building.

    Tesla must grow manufacturing, service, sales, battery packs and charging network all simultaneously, along with their suppliers. It has to be a well-choreographed dance, not a mad rush.
    Sep 17 02:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    "...competition against the Model 3 will be FIERCE." But it will be the Model 3 with all the teeth.
    Sep 17 02:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Tesla's Demand And How It Will Drive The Stock [View article]
    They don't compete because both the i3 and the i8 are brain-dead non-starters. Who wants to pay as much as a Model 3 and not get a Model 3, but instead a hobbled citycar? Because that is exactly what you get with an i3. Even with the "range extender" you still have range anxiety as soon as you fill up the gas tank, because the gasoline range is only 72 miles. That plus the electric range might get you 150 miles, but only if you drive exactly like the EPA does. Who wants to buy a luxury car like the i8 and not even be able to carry your groceries home in it without getting melted ice cream and fried eggs in your sack? And heaven forbid you want to carry anything truly bulky, like a lady's luggage set. These cars are laughable. The only reason anybody is taking them at all seriously is because they carry the BMW logo.

    No, you're missing the point. Nobody in the entire battery industry is building anywhere near enough cells to populate anything more than compliance vehicles. The gigafactory is expected to double the industry's capacity, and it will still build enough cells for only 500K vehicles. In order to convert the entire auto industry to all-electric, there needs to be 200 gigafactories, not just one.
    Sep 17 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Tesla's Demand And How It Will Drive The Stock [View article]
    Well, Tesla borrowed $2B to build the box and their share of the equipment inside it, and also to provide renewable power to it. Panasonic will be expected to provide the equipment to build the battery cells, and when all the equipment is in place the total bill on that equipment is expected to total more than $2B. Tesla's share of equipment inside the building will be to assemble battery cells into battery packs, and also to recycle used battery packs. All of that equipment will be reusable even if another cell chemistry is ultimately used. All that is required is that they stay with a relatively small cell size, like the 18650 form factor.
    Sep 17 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment