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David at Imperial Beach

 
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  • Late Stage Bull Markets: The Myth Of Stock Superiority? [View article]
    "stocks may require an indirect boost from members of the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. Specifically, the stock market may need to hear something that suggests impending rate hikes will be pushed back into Q4 2015 or Q1 2016" That would be a game changer even more dramatic than today's Swiss frank revaluation. The dollar will fall dramatically if the Fed puts off or eliminates the interest rate hikes it's committed to.
    Jan 15, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Dollar Is A 'Crowded Trade' - But Not In The Manner Most Think [View article]
    How about showing us some numbers? Yes, there's a lot of dollar denominated debt in the world, but there's also a lot of dollars and dollar denominated assets being held by foreign central banks and others outside the US. The US has run a trade deficit for decades--consistently since 1976 to be exact. (See http://bit.ly/YXuRfX ) This means that people in the rest of the world have accepted more dollars in payment for their goods and services to us than they've bought of our goods and services, and eventually they should want to spend those dollars on US goods and services. I don't see how the rest of the world can possibly be short US dollars when we've been running a trade deficit all these years. We simply haven't loaned out enough dollars to the rest of the world to balance out our trade.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Bear Market In GLD End With A Whimper? [View article]
    At this point yes, you ignore the emotional pain you're feeling, knowing that Rule and Sprott have the long-term numbers on their side. If you sell at or near a market bottom, you convert your paper loss into a real loss. If you hold on, the market will shift after the capitulation and you will be vindicated for following Rule and Sprott. Given the impending implosion of the euro, it's surprising how stable gold has been this last year. It's held up much better than most commodities, indicating a fundamental underlying strength.
    Jan 15, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Bear Market In GLD End With A Whimper? [View article]
    Actually, the strong dollar disadvantages manufacturing industries while favoring financial institutions. If the dollar falls, our exports become cheaper and our imports become more expensive. This motivates corporations to shift jobs from overseas back to our own shores, curtail imports and increase exports. For most Americans, it would be a very good thing to see a weak dollar and strong gold. There is no free lunch. A strong dollar favors some and hurts others, in this case a lot of others.
    Jan 15, 2015. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Bear Market In GLD End With A Whimper? [View article]
    What's going to be shook out is the euro. It's now becoming increasingly clear that it will not survive. The convulsions will not be pretty. It might survive somewhat if it is broken into two currencies, a north euro and a south euro. But there needs to be a major currency adjustment between Germany and practically everybody else in the euro.
    Jan 15, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold bear market over? [View news story]
    The Swiss bank took a big hit on its euro holdings today. Just punishment for its manipulation of the frank. Will it now return to buying gold instead? It certainly should because the euro is headed lower still.
    Jan 15, 2015. 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Will Set A New Model S U.S. Sales Record In Q4 2014 [View article]
    Nobody "forgets" the carbon footprint of power generation. But it's a much easier technical problem to solve if the power plant is stationary than if it is in a vehicle where weight is a paramount concern. So progress is being made if you divorce power generation from transportation units and make the power generation stationary. On the other front, there is also clear progress being made in adding renewable and carbon responsible sources to the grid.
    Jan 14, 2015. 04:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Latest Sales Projection For 2025 Is Next To Impossible To Achieve [View article]
    This coming year Tesla expects to double its capacity to build and service approximately 66K vehicles, after also doubling it in 2014 to 33K. If Tesla succeeds in approximately doubling its capacity every year or so for the next decade, and selling its total production, it will make and sell the following numbers of vehicles:

    2015 66000
    2016 132000
    2017 264000
    2018 528000
    2019 1056000
    2020 2112000
    2021 4224000

    They can slip that schedule by up to four years and still make and sell "a few million cars [by 2025]". It's admittedly a gargantuan task as TFTF pointed out in his article, but clearly not impossible. A few million cars would still make it a fairly small player in the automotive market, so they should find plenty of buyers if their products remain as competitive as they currently are. They have no need to fear from competitors.
    Jan 14, 2015. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Can Jack Up Your Income Portfolio, 6% Yield By 2017 Possible [View article]
    Well, whatever Ford management is, it is not rocket scientists. There is a car company with rocket science management, but not Ford.

    I was not very impressed with the Ford presentation at the Detroit Auto Show. These guys are struggling to look relevant, to adapt to the changing times, but it really looked like a farce to me. Horrible ghetto-blaster music was supposed to convey excitement for each new car or truck paraded onto the stage, but was actually an assault on the audience's ears. The speakers mostly spoke nonsense designed to include as many buzzwords as possible. They used "all new" a lot, apparently oblivious that all new actually means version 1.0 and unreliability. When is Ford going to realize that version 2.0 and 3.0 is when you start getting things right?

    More substantively, they did not show even one Lincoln model! Every other automaker on the face of the earth has figured out that profits come at the high end of the market, but this has somehow escaped Ford management for generations. Lincoln continues to be the stepdaughter dressed in rags and living under the stairs.

    Ford continues its retooling binge they started last year, with 15 new models globally this year. Retooling cut into profits last year, and the pain is not over for investors, it seems. It's clear to this outsider that 2015 will be another frustrating year of playing catch-up at best for Ford.
    Jan 13, 2015. 04:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    Shiny!
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    Gold rose in most currencies. Of the major currencies, it's only fallen last year against the dollar. So what moved? The euro was moving down, the Japanese yen went down even more, gold was moving up, and the dollar was moving up even faster than gold. Canadian dollar also moved down nearly 8% relative to gold, which wasn't as much as most commodities, so it can be considered the most stable of the major currencies. See http://pricedingold.com
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    2013 was an outlier for gold demand. If you look at 2012 and 2011 as well, you see that 2014 is a return to more traditional patterns of gold demand. Long term, the gold market continues to gradually grow.
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    The problem with your scenario is that shale oil producers have a lot of debt they have to service. They can't just close wells and stop paying on their debt. They have to keep the wells they've already dug pumping to pay off the debt. What they can do is stop digging new wells. Shale wells run dry relatively quickly so older wells will stop producing soon and the market will gradually come back into balance.
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    Owning shares of IAU (or even better, a Kitco gold pool account) brings storage and insurance costs down to negligible levels. Certainly better than paying your local sovereign for the right to hold its bonds, like in Europe.
    Jan 13, 2015. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Keeping GLD Up? [View article]
    It's kinda scary to see the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base going down the last few months of 2014. That means there is less cash+bank deposits in circulation than earlier in the year. As a matter of fact, it has fallen back to the same level as the start of 2014. The Fed will have to re-stimulate the economy if this trend continues. It remains highly unlikely that the Fed will be able to execute on its interest rate hike idea.
    Jan 12, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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