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David at Imperial Beach  

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  • Report: Gigafactory cost savings begin in 2018 or later [View news story]
    Maybe your enthusiasm needs to be moderated just a tad.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Gigafactory cost savings begin in 2018 or later [View news story]
    Calls for Tesla to build a factory in China are premature. Musk has already indicated that when the market warrants it, Tesla will build such a factory. But the market definitely does not warrant it when they can still count the number of deliveries in China with only four digits.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    Michigan may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. My reading of the statute says it forbids even service centers in the state. Manufacturers are supposedly forbidden from owning dealers in the state. But the statute is very sloppily written, and if I were Elon Musk I would ignore the law and let them justify in court why Tesla is a "dealer" "located" in the state of Michigan when there is no dealership agreement in place, and Tesla is incorporated in Delaware and has its headquarters in California, and furthermore has no manufacturing operations in the state of Michigan and therefore does not qualify as a "manufacturer" within the jurisdiction of the state of Michigan.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    If people can justify buying AMZN stock at $315 per ticket, the sky's the limit in this market.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    Do you really think $.60 per gallon of gas is possible? What are you smoking? Does it make you very very happy and mellow?
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    It hardly makes sense for Tesla to commit to a factory in China, and a JV agreement to boot, when they've just started selling cars in the country. Don't you think it is inconsistent to criticize them for not having a factory when you also express the fear that they may be overly optimistic in China? Let them prove the market first before committing to another factory. Right now they have plenty of space in Fremont, and are burdened by the building of a gigafactory which will double their employment.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    D. Rockefeller,

    You do know that you can find warmer places to live than Minnesota, don't you? Get on your 4 Wheel drive GM SUV, Chrysler Town and Country, Ford and John Deere Tractor and come out to sunny California and unthaw your brain, why don't you? You may have to put up with the occasional earthquake and drought, but at least you won't get brain-freeze.

    Your message is somewhat incoherent, but from what I can gather, you think SpaceX is somehow receiving subsidies and is costing the US government lots of money. If you research the subject, you will discover that SpaceX is actually saving the government millions of dollars per rocket launch.

    You also seem to think a Tesla would have a hard time surviving in Minnesota. You seem to be unaware that Tesla sells lots of vehicles into Norway and they are performing admirably. Your fears in that regard are unfounded.
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    I get a bad taste in my mouth when people refer to sentiment as a reason for driving stock prices. Most investors are simply not that frivolous with their money to buy investments on a whim. Especially not high frequency traders who automate the majority of the trades on the exchanges these days. There are traders who think they can learn everything they need to know from looking at the price history alone, thinking that only past pricing drives sentiment. I disagree on principle. Why put blinders on? In order to increase the accuracy of your trades you should be finding and adding relevant data, not subtracting it.

    Long term, oil can only get more scarce, and as a consequence, more expensive, until most users are priced out of the market. Thus, the ICE automobile is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In the year 1900, buggy whip manufacturers were also dead, but didn't know it yet. No thinking investor would even consider linking the price of TSLA stock to an ephemeral drop in the price of oil.
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    Finally? Where have you been? In the past, Tesla has often beat production numbers by 10%. This is the first quarter that they will probably squeak through, or maybe not meet their number. I base that on a report that some delivery dates were pushed back into Q4. It seems they were not able to ramp up as quickly as planned after the production line changes.
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    Daimler's stake isn't really relevant to the thesis of the article, now is it?

    It should be no surprise to analysts and and Teslaites that Tesla is spending as much money as it makes. That's the company's stated strategy: to finance most of its growth from operations. The company could, of course, stop growing, be just a niche player in the automotive space, and make an impressive profit each quarter. But that's not why investors are excited about buying TSLA. They want the company to grow by at least ten-fold between now and the end of the decade. Automotive companies require large amounts of capital. You can't grow ten-fold over 6 years without lots of spending from somewhere. If not from operations, then they would have to do a lot of stockholder dilution through either debt or equity issues.
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:21 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Could Explain The Decline In Gold [View article]
    "pushed gold prices to stratospheric levels" What stratospheric levels? At the height of the 2001-2011 bull market in gold, the miners were selling it for only about a 20%-25% gross margin over ASIC. That's hardly stratospheric for a commodity.
    Oct 22, 2014. 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Size Does Matter... When It Comes To Screens [View article]
    There is a great divide here, and that divide is between stationary devices and portable ones. For stationary devices, there's really no downside to larger screen sizes except price. The larger the better. For portable devices there is a very real tradeoff between size and convenience and portability. It starts with weight, but it also includes bulkiness. If your iPhone won't fit in your pocket or purse, it doesn't really matter how thin or lightweight it is. For every square inch of screen real estate, there's fewer people that can fit the device into their lifestyle in a useful way.
    Oct 21, 2014. 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Still Miscalculating Risk? A Guide To Creating Alpha Without Skill [View article]
    Google also reports a beta of 3.0 for VBLTX. They are surely using some index other than SPY as the market index, at least for bonds.

    You neglected to report the weightings and the rebalancing interval for your portfolio.
    Oct 21, 2014. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Beginner's Guide To Investing In Silver For Stability [View article]
    So why didn't you consider a portfolio of gold and SPY? You considered the correlation of silver to SPY and silver to gold, but not gold to SPY. Why not? Silver is well-known for having more industrial uses than gold, so its correlation to SPY should be greater than gold. The less correlated the assets in your portfolio are, the better for your diversification strategy. Additionally, your chart shows that gold's volatility since 2010 is only slightly higher than IWV and SPY.

    It might be reasonable to hold silver in your portfolio, but you haven't shown that it is better than owning gold, and gold is much less volatile.
    Oct 21, 2014. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity ETF Flows: Big Inflows Into Energy Funds Despite Sliding Prices [View article]
    Bad timing for energy investors.
    Oct 21, 2014. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment