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David at Imperial Beach  

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  • Fool's Gold: The Perpetual Bubble [View article]
    I don't think so. Montier concludes with:

    <<To say that the printing of money by central banks to finance government deficits creates hyperinflations is far too simplistic (bordering on the simple-minded). Hyperinflation is not purely a monetary phenomenon. To claim that is to miss the root causes that underlie these extraordinary periods. It takes something much worse than simply printing money. To create the situations that give rise to hyperinflations, history teaches us that a massive supply shock, often
    coupled with external debts denominated in a foreign currency, is required, and that social unrest and distributive conflict help to transmit the shock more broadly. >>

    Production shock is just another name for shortage. Montier does not use the term currency pinning and I can find nothing that he says that could be described by that term, which you apparently made up. I also can't find anywhere in my own remark where I mentioned any inflation.

    Montier says hyperinflations are marked, not just by money creation, but also by commodity shortages, though he prefers the term production shocks. I argue that low commodity prices will incentivize commodity producers to reduce or halt production, thus leading to commodity shortages (aka production shocks). Thus, we are much closer to hyperinflation than Montier thinks.
    Oct 22, 2014. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fool's Gold: The Perpetual Bubble [View article]
    Intrinsic value means value not dependent upon anything else. Stocks are dependent upon earnings. Bonds are dependent upon creditworthiness of the borrower. Both are dependent upon the underlying fiat currency, which has zero intrinsic value. Gold is dependent upon nothing but its own weight and purity.
    Oct 22, 2014. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fool's Gold: The Perpetual Bubble [View article]
    If you claim to be clueless about the fair value of gold, then how do you value other commodities? How does one value a beef cow? By a reasonable markup over the cost to produce it, that markup being based on supply and demand. Gold is no different. It's just more emotional to people who value paper over real money.
    Oct 22, 2014. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fool's Gold: The Perpetual Bubble [View article]
    No one claims that Disney is of no value just because entertainment is a waste of time. The assertion that gold has no value is trollish, and labeling it as such implies no personal umbrage. I would call out the similar assertion that Disney was worthless.
    Oct 22, 2014. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CPI comes in slow again [View news story]
    Or we are exiting a looooong period of great economic conditions for corporations while ever more people are living off of food stamps, even if they have jobs.

    Low commodity prices are dangerous. They will lead to shortages, and shortages will lead to hyperinflations. See
    Oct 22, 2014. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Gigafactory cost savings begin in 2018 or later [View news story]
    Tesla is a high beta stock, and the market is down as I write this. More than any other quarter, it is questionable whether or not Tesla will make its numbers this quarter, so yes, there could be some waiting for Nov 5.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Gigafactory cost savings begin in 2018 or later [View news story]
    Maybe your enthusiasm needs to be moderated just a tad.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Gigafactory cost savings begin in 2018 or later [View news story]
    Calls for Tesla to build a factory in China are premature. Musk has already indicated that when the market warrants it, Tesla will build such a factory. But the market definitely does not warrant it when they can still count the number of deliveries in China with only four digits.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    Michigan may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. My reading of the statute says it forbids even service centers in the state. Manufacturers are supposedly forbidden from owning dealers in the state. But the statute is very sloppily written, and if I were Elon Musk I would ignore the law and let them justify in court why Tesla is a "dealer" "located" in the state of Michigan when there is no dealership agreement in place, and Tesla is incorporated in Delaware and has its headquarters in California, and furthermore has no manufacturing operations in the state of Michigan and therefore does not qualify as a "manufacturer" within the jurisdiction of the state of Michigan.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    If people can justify buying AMZN stock at $315 per ticket, the sky's the limit in this market.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    Do you really think $.60 per gallon of gas is possible? What are you smoking? Does it make you very very happy and mellow?
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    It hardly makes sense for Tesla to commit to a factory in China, and a JV agreement to boot, when they've just started selling cars in the country. Don't you think it is inconsistent to criticize them for not having a factory when you also express the fear that they may be overly optimistic in China? Let them prove the market first before committing to another factory. Right now they have plenty of space in Fremont, and are burdened by the building of a gigafactory which will double their employment.
    Oct 22, 2014. 01:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    D. Rockefeller,

    You do know that you can find warmer places to live than Minnesota, don't you? Get on your 4 Wheel drive GM SUV, Chrysler Town and Country, Ford and John Deere Tractor and come out to sunny California and unthaw your brain, why don't you? You may have to put up with the occasional earthquake and drought, but at least you won't get brain-freeze.

    Your message is somewhat incoherent, but from what I can gather, you think SpaceX is somehow receiving subsidies and is costing the US government lots of money. If you research the subject, you will discover that SpaceX is actually saving the government millions of dollars per rocket launch.

    You also seem to think a Tesla would have a hard time surviving in Minnesota. You seem to be unaware that Tesla sells lots of vehicles into Norway and they are performing admirably. Your fears in that regard are unfounded.
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    I get a bad taste in my mouth when people refer to sentiment as a reason for driving stock prices. Most investors are simply not that frivolous with their money to buy investments on a whim. Especially not high frequency traders who automate the majority of the trades on the exchanges these days. There are traders who think they can learn everything they need to know from looking at the price history alone, thinking that only past pricing drives sentiment. I disagree on principle. Why put blinders on? In order to increase the accuracy of your trades you should be finding and adding relevant data, not subtracting it.

    Long term, oil can only get more scarce, and as a consequence, more expensive, until most users are priced out of the market. Thus, the ICE automobile is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In the year 1900, buggy whip manufacturers were also dead, but didn't know it yet. No thinking investor would even consider linking the price of TSLA stock to an ephemeral drop in the price of oil.
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    Finally? Where have you been? In the past, Tesla has often beat production numbers by 10%. This is the first quarter that they will probably squeak through, or maybe not meet their number. I base that on a report that some delivery dates were pushed back into Q4. It seems they were not able to ramp up as quickly as planned after the production line changes.
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment