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David at Imperial Beach  

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  • Commodity ETF Flows: Big Inflows Into Energy Funds Despite Sliding Prices [View article]
    Bad timing for energy investors.
    Oct 21, 2014. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Times Will Come For Gold [View article]
    Your thesis that easy money causes volatility flies in the face of facts. Volatility goes down when liquidity goes up. It is when the spigot is shut off that volatility increases.

    Nevertheless, this is immaterial to the future price of gold. Gold has now tested $1180 per ozt three times, and held every time. Meanwhile, the dollar has risen to ridiculous heights and is now braking the global economy. The Fed, far from raising interest rates next year, is now having to reconsider ending QE. The market has already priced in an interest rate hike, so when it becomes clear that this is not going to happen, the dollar will fall sharply, and gold and other commodities will rise.
    Oct 21, 2014. 01:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Q3 GDP Slows To 7.3% [View article]
    Both. People aren't putting as much junk food in their bodies any more, and the strong dollar is putting the brakes on the global economy. A strong euro just puts the brakes on the European economy.
    Oct 21, 2014. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's beats by $0.13, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Apparently the world wants to eat healthier than Big Macs, Cokes, and fries.
    Oct 21, 2014. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big drop in SPDR Gold Trust assets [View news story]
    Obviously you're not alone, but that level has already been tested three times now and held. It's clear to a lot of investors that the dollar has been run up on a false premise that the Fed is going to raise interest rates. We'll be lucky if the Fed doesn't decide to continue QE instead of terminating it this month. Continued QE or continued low interest rates when the market is expecting the opposite will be devastating for the dollar, and gold (and other commodities) will climb.
    Oct 21, 2014. 12:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Asleep - When Will It Awaken? [View article]
    I'm with you fishfryer. But your production number is too low. The WGC number for total production of gold (including both mining and recycling) for the year 2013 is 4254 tonnes. Divide by 12 and you get 354.5 tonnes produced per month. Still, 354.5 - (200 + 37 + 95) leaves only 22.5 tonnes per month for the entire rest of the world. Of that, some gets smuggled into India. 68 tonnes was consumed in an abnormal week in Shanghai because of holidays, as reported here: A better monthly estimate can be developed by taking the 1300 tonnes per year of imported gold and dividing by 12 to give 108.3 tonnes per month. 354.5 - (108.3 + 37 + 95) yields a total of 114.2 tonnes for the rest of the world. This is still not very much.
    Oct 21, 2014. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch As Apple Hoses The Music Industry Yet Again [View article]
    Actually, in the early days of radio, news and drama were more popular than music. Everyone would gather around a radio that was the size of a TV and watch the radio dial as actors and special effects people enacted dramas. TV was the end of radio drama.
    Oct 20, 2014. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch As Apple Hoses The Music Industry Yet Again [View article]
    I'm not alone in getting rid of cable TV. Now I watch Youtube when I want to watch video. Hulu, Vimeo and Yahoo Live are also possibilities.
    Oct 20, 2014. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - Continues To Hover Just Below Key Level At $1240 [View article]
    That's because there are so many ways for chartists to find "key levels". Draw any line that intersects one or more tops and bottoms and you have a key level. In addition, various "significant" percentages above and below key levels are also key levels. Add to that, all the simple moving averages for various time periods also define key levels. Bollinger bands at various standard deviations also define key levels.
    Oct 20, 2014. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Going On In The U.S. Bond Market? [View article]
    These super-low yields only make sense if investors are buying bonds for reasons other than the yields themselves. One possibility is that overseas investors have been buying US treasuries as merely a place to park their capital in the US as they make bets on the dollar rising. In other words, these investors aren't expecting to make any money on the bond yields, but rather on dollar appreciation. They could also be making money on appreciation of the bonds themselves.
    Oct 20, 2014. 01:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Francisco Fed Head Hints At A New Round Of QE [View article]
    The way to stop the dollar flood overseas is to bring some manufacturing back home. That happens with a weak dollar, not a strong dollar.
    Oct 20, 2014. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Francisco Fed Head Hints At A New Round Of QE [View article]
    If the Fed prints money fast enough, velocity doesn't have to increase.
    Oct 20, 2014. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebola And Leverage Are A Toxic Combination [View article]
    Ebola is just one factor in a perfect storm. It has the potential to disrupt travel and healthcare in ways that flu and pneumonia do not. Entire nations could suddenly find themselves quarantined off. But more importantly, Ebola is a black swan flying at a time when the stock market is at an all-time high and heavily overvalued. Add to that the fact that the Fed is terminating QE and talking about raising interest rates. Add to that that the dollar has risen and added a braking effect to the global economy. Add to that, Europe and Japan were already experiencing deflation and zero or negative real growth.
    Oct 20, 2014. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Gold Production Falling As Physical Demand Jumps [View article]
    Any game changing technology will surely be more expensive than current exploration/extraction technology, just like current technology is more expensive than past technology. This is a universal truth that applies to fracking as well as gold.

    One of the reasons why gold holds up well in deflationary times is that uncertainty and volatility in other assets always accompany deflations.
    Oct 20, 2014. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Extreme Gold/Silver Futures Shorting Peaks, Covering Nears [View article]
    So you think that somehow it's different this time? Good luck with that.
    Oct 20, 2014. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment