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David at Imperial Beach

 
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  • Tesla Will Set A New Model S U.S. Sales Record In Q4 2014 [View article]
    Nobody "forgets" the carbon footprint of power generation. But it's a much easier technical problem to solve if the power plant is stationary than if it is in a vehicle where weight is a paramount concern. So progress is being made if you divorce power generation from transportation units and make the power generation stationary. On the other front, there is also clear progress being made in adding renewable and carbon responsible sources to the grid.
    Jan 14, 2015. 04:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Latest Sales Projection For 2025 Is Next To Impossible To Achieve [View article]
    This coming year Tesla expects to double its capacity to build and service approximately 66K vehicles, after also doubling it in 2014 to 33K. If Tesla succeeds in approximately doubling its capacity every year or so for the next decade, and selling its total production, it will make and sell the following numbers of vehicles:

    2015 66000
    2016 132000
    2017 264000
    2018 528000
    2019 1056000
    2020 2112000
    2021 4224000

    They can slip that schedule by up to four years and still make and sell "a few million cars [by 2025]". It's admittedly a gargantuan task as TFTF pointed out in his article, but clearly not impossible. A few million cars would still make it a fairly small player in the automotive market, so they should find plenty of buyers if their products remain as competitive as they currently are. They have no need to fear from competitors.
    Jan 14, 2015. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Can Jack Up Your Income Portfolio, 6% Yield By 2017 Possible [View article]
    Well, whatever Ford management is, it is not rocket scientists. There is a car company with rocket science management, but not Ford.

    I was not very impressed with the Ford presentation at the Detroit Auto Show. These guys are struggling to look relevant, to adapt to the changing times, but it really looked like a farce to me. Horrible ghetto-blaster music was supposed to convey excitement for each new car or truck paraded onto the stage, but was actually an assault on the audience's ears. The speakers mostly spoke nonsense designed to include as many buzzwords as possible. They used "all new" a lot, apparently oblivious that all new actually means version 1.0 and unreliability. When is Ford going to realize that version 2.0 and 3.0 is when you start getting things right?

    More substantively, they did not show even one Lincoln model! Every other automaker on the face of the earth has figured out that profits come at the high end of the market, but this has somehow escaped Ford management for generations. Lincoln continues to be the stepdaughter dressed in rags and living under the stairs.

    Ford continues its retooling binge they started last year, with 15 new models globally this year. Retooling cut into profits last year, and the pain is not over for investors, it seems. It's clear to this outsider that 2015 will be another frustrating year of playing catch-up at best for Ford.
    Jan 13, 2015. 04:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    Shiny!
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    Gold rose in most currencies. Of the major currencies, it's only fallen last year against the dollar. So what moved? The euro was moving down, the Japanese yen went down even more, gold was moving up, and the dollar was moving up even faster than gold. Canadian dollar also moved down nearly 8% relative to gold, which wasn't as much as most commodities, so it can be considered the most stable of the major currencies. See http://pricedingold.com
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    2013 was an outlier for gold demand. If you look at 2012 and 2011 as well, you see that 2014 is a return to more traditional patterns of gold demand. Long term, the gold market continues to gradually grow.
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    The problem with your scenario is that shale oil producers have a lot of debt they have to service. They can't just close wells and stop paying on their debt. They have to keep the wells they've already dug pumping to pay off the debt. What they can do is stop digging new wells. Shale wells run dry relatively quickly so older wells will stop producing soon and the market will gradually come back into balance.
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Game Time For Gold [View article]
    Owning shares of IAU (or even better, a Kitco gold pool account) brings storage and insurance costs down to negligible levels. Certainly better than paying your local sovereign for the right to hold its bonds, like in Europe.
    Jan 13, 2015. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Keeping GLD Up? [View article]
    It's kinda scary to see the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base going down the last few months of 2014. That means there is less cash+bank deposits in circulation than earlier in the year. As a matter of fact, it has fallen back to the same level as the start of 2014. The Fed will have to re-stimulate the economy if this trend continues. It remains highly unlikely that the Fed will be able to execute on its interest rate hike idea.
    Jan 12, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Model X sighting at CES [View news story]
    What makes you think the P85D has "old and dysfunctional seats"? At some point in the production run all Model Ss started getting updated seats. The P85D should be getting the updated seats just like all the others.
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Model X sighting at CES [View news story]
    Drop down "invisible" doors are even less popular than gull wing doors. But of course you can't put drop down doors on a Tesla anyway, so the point is entirely moot. Why? Because the battery pack is in the way of the pockets that the drop down doors retract into.
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's 200-Mile Electric Car For $30,000: RIP Tesla [View article]
    Females aren't the only ones with heavy keychains. Ever see the wad of keys a school janitor carries? But please consider the mentality of your comment. Is it really right to blame the victims? Is your comment fitting a pattern of misogyny?
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Euro Crash [View article]
    Your assumption that buyers of currency will invest in the local economy in the case of capital flight is not necessarily true. When capital takes flight from an economy with its own fiat currency, it is of course true that the capital must be converted from the local fiat currency into some foreign currency. But the counterparty to that transaction is likely to be, directly or indirectly, the local central bank as it buys up its own currency in order to prop up its value. If it fails to do so, and the flight is severe enough, the value of the currency will fall to zero and no outsider will want to hold it, thus rendering it useless.
    Jan 7, 2015. 04:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Euro Crash [View article]
    Your reference makes clear that it's counting both imports and exports in its 39%, not just exports. It's also clear from your reference that not all states of the EU are equally open.

    Germany (and the Netherlands) are running huge trade surpluses against the other members of the EU. Consequently, the rest of the EU are running trade deficits. This is the EU's real problem, not any openness or lack thereof with the rest of the world.
    Jan 7, 2015. 03:59 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Over The Long-Term You Cannot Bet Against China Because The Chinese Are Too Smart [View article]
    You can't make too much of these statistics. It's well-known that IQ only really measures acculturation, not potential for success in school or business. A large but fairly homogenous population such as China will measure higher on a Chinese IQ than the USA with all its diversity will measure on an English language IQ. Many residents here are not native speakers of English.

    Most hierarchical organizations only really make use of the full intellectual capacity of those at the top of the hierarchy. The rest barely engage their brain as they go about their routine daily tasks. It's debatable whether the majority of people have ever had an original thought in their entire lives! What do they need IQ for?
    Jan 7, 2015. 12:57 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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