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David at Imperial Beach

 
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  • Should You Pile Back Into Silver Now? [View article]
    Sorry, but there is no excess of demand over supply for silver. 70% of silver is mined as a byproduct of base metals and the miners don't care what the price of silver is. The price of silver can stay below the production cost for years at a time. Demand is down for silver because, as you say, it has a big industrial use, and that use is down due to lack of economic activity. In other words, we have not truly recovered from the recession of 2008. Industrial activity is still below par.
    Oct 16 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Will Turn When You Least Expect It [View article]
    If stocks can't go up any further, then they must come down. Prices do not remain static. I believe that stocks are starting a major bear market.
    Oct 16 02:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Will Turn When You Least Expect It [View article]
    "QE3 is NOT going to end." You can't make such an assumption based upon one Fed governor's opinion. The Fed loses a lot of credibility if it doesn't kill off QE as everybody expects. That loss of credibility will result in a crash in the value of the dollar, which is currently bid up to an outrageous level on the assumption that the Fed is going to end QE and begin raising interest rates.
    Oct 16 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why This One Thing Is The Biggest Game Changer Yet [View article]
    The battery swap option will stay expensive. Logistically it is very expensive to support. And it may never be supported on the Model 3, which will likely need a different size pack size, and where customers are expected to be more price-conscious.
    Oct 16 02:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why This One Thing Is The Biggest Game Changer Yet [View article]
    Better Place failed because people were not wanting to pay for a new car plus be forced to pay an expensive subscription fee and not even own the battery in their own car. We don't know yet if battery swapping is going to be viable with other business models. In California, Tesla will test a per swap charge.

    I suspect it will not be very popular, but it will enable the collection of additional ZEV credits from the state.
    Oct 16 01:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why This One Thing Is The Biggest Game Changer Yet [View article]
    Yes, but that's a good thing, not a bad thing.
    Oct 16 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why This One Thing Is The Biggest Game Changer Yet [View article]
    Battery swapping doesn't solve the "treasure hunt" problem. There will be even fewer battery charging stations than supercharging stations because they are more expensive to build and operate.

    Unless you're competing in a road rally, you can find time for a supercharge. Elite executives are particularly adept at making a block of time as large as 20 minutes productive on a road trip. And of course, they always have the opportunity to take the plane if they need to get there truly fast. Executives don't travel cross-country by car for business.
    Oct 16 01:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why This One Thing Is The Biggest Game Changer Yet [View article]
    Current Model S owners can get their battery packs swapped too. The capability was built into the car from the start. Supercharging stations were the later addition, and they were so popular (being free) that it became questionable whether or not the battery swap network was necessary.

    Many Model S owners stretched their budget significantly in order to afford the car, and are depending on the savings of electricity over gasoline in order to fit their income. An $80 battery swap is the same cost as a fill-up, so there go their savings.

    But the P85D may attract more high end buyers who would appreciate the battery swap option.
    Oct 16 01:37 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Makes A Technical Statement [View article]
    It will soon become apparent that gold is resuming the truncated bull market that peaked in 2011. See my previous comment.
    Oct 16 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Makes A Technical Statement [View article]
    I expect the movement downward in stocks to take several years and be VERY deep. Conversely, the move upward in gold should be a resumption of the truncated bull market that peaked in 2011. Why?

    First of all, everybody has been talking about a 10% correction in stocks at most. With so much agreement that the economy is basically going to grow and justify the upward spiral of the stock market, the movement of greatest surprise will be a long, sustained bear market.

    Secondly, the strong dollar is throwing an already weak global economy into recession. There is not one other major trading partner that you can point to that is not experiencing economic slowdown to the point of reversal.

    Thirdly, paper assets (stocks and bonds) are hugely overvalued and real assets other than real estate (gold, oil, other commodities) are hugely undervalued. This imbalance has gone on for several years now, and a global economy cannot function when this situation persists. Commodity shortages begin to develop when producers cut back or stop operations, or even go bankrupt. Commodity shortages are very dangerous indeed, since they are often a precursor for hyperinflations.

    Fourthly, the underlying reason for the gold bull market has never been addressed, and it is quite clear that the Congress of the United States has no intention of doing so. The Fed's ZIRP policy has lowered the deficit temporarily, but has not eliminated it. The debt continues to grow. The US now carries a record debt load for any country, ever. And this is taking place while almost every other sovereign nation is also carrying more debt than they can pay back too.

    Fifthly, the monetary supply growth must eventually be reflected in the price of gold and other goods and services. Either that, or the money supply must shrink back to the size of the real economy. Long term, all imbalances and incongruities in the pricing structure will be addressed by any functioning economic system. It is in the very nature of the beast. The Fed has allowed many such situations to be created, and they have grown to gargantuan size.
    Oct 16 11:26 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Gold-Backed, Reserve Currency [View article]
    To me an "orderly global transfer of economic power/control" implies that the Chinese, at the appropriate time, will introduce a separate gold-backed currency used only in international trade. One of the flaws of the current global economic system with the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is that the Fed makes decisions about the dollar only in consideration of how they expect it to affect the US economy. But since it is the global reserve currency, it also affects other nations as well, in sometimes profoundly disorderly ways.

    It would be very much an improvement in international trade if there was a world reserve currency that was stable. In order for it to be stable, it has to be divorced from domestic politics and also backed by gold.

    The dollar was originally backed by gold, but once it became accepted as the world's reserve currency, the domestic economy expanded too much to keep it on the gold standard, so FDR and Nixon relaxed and eliminated the gold standard.

    In order for any new currency to be accepted as the world's reserve currency it has to be backed by gold. Otherwise, what advantage does it offer to the dollar? Thus, the gold backing must come first or simultaneously.
    Oct 16 02:07 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Source Of Power For Tesla? [View article]
    I for one would not support Tesla if they were involved in nuclear developments in any way. One of the reasons I do support Tesla is that I want to eliminate any reason to resort to civilian uses of nuclear energy.

    There is no relationship between this announcement (which is still just a lab project years away from a viable product, by the way) and Tesla. No matter how small they make it, it will not be appropriate for use in vehicles due to the extremely high safety concerns that must be satisfied during an automobile accident.
    Oct 15 11:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Source Of Power For Tesla? [View article]
    Solar power is already cheap enough that there is a huge cost savings in charging a Tesla versus fueling a gasoline or diesel vehicle.
    Oct 15 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Not So Cool Anymore [View article]
    "Nobody goes there any more. It's too crowded" - Yogi Berra.
    Oct 15 05:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Not So Cool Anymore [View article]
    Let's get this straight: You think if you asked Carl's Jr customers which they would have as first prize in a raffle, a Mercedes or a Ford they would pick the Ford? Boy is your view of the world distorted! First off, even Mercedes owners buy burgers at Carl's Jr. Second, Mercedes is the more aspirational brand for anybody who has heard of the two brands, regardless of their economic status. That's why a Mercedes can get away with charging more.
    Oct 15 05:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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