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David at Imperial Beach

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  • Tesla Underestimates Supercharger Expenses [View article]
    Unlike Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk has never said anything that could be interpreted as "profits are not needed for sustainability." Tesla is reinvesting its cash flow into growth right now (obviously), and that will continue for many years to come because it is a minnow swimming in a pool of whales, relatively speaking. Right now growth is more important to sustainability than earnings. But once the company reaches a competitive size then profits can be expected.

    I don't think it is at all surprising that Musk's options trigger on do-able items like reaching project milestones and making 30% gross margin for four consecutive quarters, or even making particular production goals. There is quite obvious work involved in reaching each of those goals, so they seem perfectly fair to me. There is currently no need for sales goals, because production is the bottleneck, not sales. (Pay attention, shorts!) There are currently no profit goals because profits are being plowed back into the company to produce growth.
    Dec 6, 2014. 12:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Underestimates Supercharger Expenses [View article]
    If average vehicle age now 11.4 years old, then some of them are much younger than 11.4 years and some of them are much older than 11.4 years. But there isn't any way of determining how much older just from the average statistic. (And we don't even know whether that is the mean or the median because R L Polk failed to specify which.) We aren't even talking about average lifespans here. We're just talking about average age.

    Think of human lifespans. Worldwide human life expectancy is 67.2 years, and varies greatly depending on location and income level (about 32 years in Swaziland and 82 years in Japan). But because there are so many children in the world, average (mean) age of a human is much lower than 67.2, about 32 in 2011. Median age is even lower, 28.4. That means that half the world's population has had fewer than 29 birthdays, and the other half 29 or more.
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Underestimates Supercharger Expenses [View article]
    The earth being 4.5 billion years old is irrelevant. It hasn't been livable for humans nearly that long. And profligate burning of fossil fuels can reduce conditions to unlivability, as the Chinese are discovering daily. Humanity could well enact its own extinction by making the world completely unlivable for humans. The planet would live on, and other life forms would take our place, but we would not survive. So don't assume that because the planet has been here for 4.5 billion years that we can't make a right mess of things.
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe turns lower as Draghi plays down stimulus hopes [View news story]
    Germans are still convinced that the more euros they hold, the wealthier they become. They don't realize that the whole idea of paper money is to convince other people to hold yours so you can have the goods and services that they are offering. It's really only paper.
    Dec 4, 2014. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most Gold Market Analysts Don't Understand The Most Basic Law Of Economics [View article]
    A bit of careful thought should reveal that whenever you stop reading an article as soon as it disagrees with one of your cherished beliefs, you're facilitating confirmation bias. Good luck with that!

    I could refute the claim that mine production is only 1.5% of "total supply", but why bother when you refuse to read it and take heed? Likewise, it's easy to show times (such as now) where the supply of available physical gold is quite low but prices remain weak because of excessive "paper gold" speculation. But with your confirmation bias facilitation policy firmly in place, you won't ever see the logic, let alone follow it and learn.
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:10 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Be Fooled By IBM Cloud Contract Announcements [View article]
    Growing revenue is a prerequisite to sustainably making money.
    Dec 4, 2014. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Be Fooled By IBM Cloud Contract Announcements [View article]
    You could choose to be less lazy and critical you know. If you feel the article needs a couple more facts and figures, go ahead and add them as comments instead of complaining that they aren't there.

    For me, "way down" is meaningful. If I had to put it in numbers, I'd say (arbitrarily) that "way down" should mean a 20% decrease at minimum. I could look up the numbers if they were important to me, but IBM is just not that interesting a company that I'm contemplating an investment in it. I already know that IBM's earnings growth is financially engineered smoke and mirrors. The point of the article is not how far down the sales are, but that they've found yet another way to puff their stats.
    Dec 4, 2014. 11:06 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi: ECB considering all assets except gold [View news story]
    I read about a week ago some speculation that the ECB could buy gold. At the time I discounted it as totally implausible because the one thing the ECB does not want to do is undermine the dollar by buying gold. The ECB thinks that a devalued euro will stimulate exports and inflate imports, and they are desperate to show any inflation they can. Buying gold would make the dollar look bad, and that in turn would be counterproductive to the euro devaluation the ECB wants to implement. Buying gold was never an option on the table.
    Dec 4, 2014. 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota's 'Fool Cells' Won't Bother Tesla [View article]
    Lithium batteries need proper temperature controls and also proper charging controls. But Tesla has proven that when those controls are operating, lithium technology is safe. No Tesla battery pack has ever spontaneously exploded, and there have only been a handful of fires due to severe collision damage.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota's 'Fool Cells' Won't Bother Tesla [View article]
    Fuel cells will probably never take over the majority of forklifts, let alone the majority of automobiles. (PLUG) has flirted with bankruptcy quarter after quarter for the last 10 years. Walmart and others are willing to sample HFC forklifts to compare the benefits simply because they are a new technology, and PLUG has been practically giving them away. But at some point they have to have measurable benefits for the customer and also provide PLUG with a profit. Neither of those is obvious at present.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota's 'Fool Cells' Won't Bother Tesla [View article]
    Lithium is not in short supply. There is absolutely no need to "...raze half of the land masses of Chile and Bolivia in order for him to attain the Lithium..." Musk is not being arrogant in proclaiming fuel cells DOA. He's merely reporting physics to the educationally challenged.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Tesla Have In Common With Commodore International? [View article]

    Don't apologize for the length of your excellent comment. But do consider turning it into a SeekingAlpha article. I would add my own rebuttal of Santos, but you have already addressed the major points I would cover.
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:47 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: How Low Can It Go? [View article]
    Sorry, I don't believe the propaganda that shale oil can be profitably fracked at $40 per barrel. We're going to see some wildcatters unable to pay off their loans before this is done.
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Stocks Really The Only Game In Town? [View article]
    Why re-invent Ray Dalio's wheel? The All Weather portfolio is discussed here and here
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And The Fuel Cell Mirage [View article]
    Why, fiwiki2, did you link to an article that did not discuss the capital cost to build a hydrogen refueling station in support of your skepticism that they cost 10 times that of an equivalent Tesla Supercharger station? Did you think that we would be so lazy as to not click on your link?
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment