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David at Imperial Beach

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  • Gold Running Out Of Its Safe Haven Steam [View article]
    These Johnny come *latelies (or *Johnnies come *lately) make Chavez look like a *genius.

    If you're looking for the capital in GLD to fuel the stock market Santa Claus rally, it's going to be an extremely weak rally! Do you have any idea how much more gargantuan the capital flows in the stock market are than the gold market? And most of the weak hands left GLD last year, so we're down to only a trickle of sellers this year.
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Baaack: Looming Greek Elections Threaten To Re-Ignite The Euro Crisis [View article]
    When major portions of a continent get labelled "slacker", something is definitely wrong with your labeling scheme, if not your philosophy. It's not just Greece that's in trouble. It's Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Greece and Ireland, and from time to time others as well. In fact, Germany is the culprit here, as it fails to consume the production of its neighbors, or invest in them so it can. When 27% of a country is out of work, that's not due to slackers, that's due to a failing economic system. Germany's arrogance will once again be its downfall.
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leshi Is Moving Into Electric Vehicles: Negative Implication For Tesla [View article]
    I doubt very much that this hypothetical new competitor will cause Tesla to lower its already low price in China. The automobile industry is not like the software industry at all, and the software business model simply won't fly. You can't sell cars at cost and make up for it on the "music, movies and gaming apps as well as in-app items" or "mobile ads, LBS, O2O and telematic services." That's ridiculous. Besides, if that model actually worked, there is nothing preventing Tesla from adopting the same scheme. The automobile industry has many costs that the software industry doesn't have. The software industry has R&D costs, and sales costs, and that's about it. Very little in the way of production costs and after sales servicing costs. In contrast, the automobile industry has large production costs and after sales servicing costs. Leshi may well get its head handed to it on a platter.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:31 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Empty Threat Of Solid State Batteries [View article]
    You yourself admit that "battery technology improvements have been extraordinarily slow -- nothing like Moore's Law -- more like 10% per year." Then it should be obvious to even you that some new technology is not going to sneak up on us and blind-side us overnight. It takes lots and lots of time and research to get from lab concepts to production quantities at competitive prices. Go fish.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Empty Threat Of Solid State Batteries [View article]
    Crucially, energy density is not as good as other LI technology. Tesla has more than enough power (using small form factor cells). It is energy density per dollar that must be improved.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Empty Threat Of Solid State Batteries [View article]
    As explained in the article, the process is much more expensive, and for that reason likely to always remain uncompetitive and therefore moot to the gigafactory.

    In the unlikely event that a cleanroom process is required for some future solid state electrolyte, the electrolyte is only one part of a much larger processing sequence. It is likely to need only a small footprint within the existing building, and it is certainly not insurmountable to add one when it is needed. Cleanrooms are relatively common in Silicon Valley. They are not at all scary monsters in the dark that eat little wayward children for lunch.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Empty Threat Of Solid State Batteries [View article]
    Are you deliberately misinterpreting the sentiment? Or are you just confused? It says nothing whatsoever about the 18650 cell peaking, and "put up or shut up" to all the contenders.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Empty Threat Of Solid State Batteries [View article]
    Of course, but what you are stating is tantamount to a tautology. In order to get anything out into the real world, this is a risk that must be taken. In this particular case, the risk is not very credible in the near and intermediate terms.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Empty Threat Of Solid State Batteries [View article]
    Indeed, a breath of fresh air.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:18 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold The Oldest Bubble 'In Human History'? [View article]
    It's hard to see how there's any currency premium left in gold when it's trading at the cost to produce it.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Vs. Passive Management - It's A Good Time To Go Active [View article]
    Actually no. By active management the author means stock picking based upon undervaluation according to some set of fundamental criteria. Ideally, the active manager would recognize the undervaluation before there was a trend and buy in at the bottom. To do it successfully, the manager must be a contrarian and buy when there is blood in the streets and sell when trend followers are being greedy.
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Vs. Passive Management - It's A Good Time To Go Active [View article]
    You could have been a little less terse.

    It's bad advice because it assumes that active managers are in control of their emotions and trade only based upon valuations computed from quantifiable data. The assumption breaks down on practically all points. Active managers are, as a group, at least as herd-like and at least as emotional as the rest of us. They are not a separate species from planet Vulcan. They often do not bother to compute target valuations, and even if they do, they often feel it necessary to add in subjective fudge factors to get the valuations they desire. Their lack of outperformance results prove that they are every bit as prone to mispricing as anybody else.
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Junior Gold Mining Bear ETFs - Another Contrarian Signal? [View article]
    Your train of thought seems to have derailed. No market for gold? What makes you say that? Sure, gold must be in some physical form, such as coins, bars or jewelry, but often those items are valued for their gold content alone. To say the price of gold is not relevant only reveals your ignorance of how those items are valued. German Jews in NY may not have cared any longer how many marks they could get, but now they cared about how many dollars their gold could bring.
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Gained On Capital Flows That Should Reverse [View article]
    If Greece is going to default outright, then there is no reason for them to leave the euro, and every reason to stay. The only "advantage" to leaving the euro is that if Greece reverts to a national currency it can monetize the debt and default indirectly instead of outright. But nobody is going to want to hold a currency that is being so obviously devalued, so Greece will be no better off than an outright default. They still won't be able to borrow money in fiat drachmas. Investors will insist that the debt be denominated in euros or dollars. Furthermore, they will likely require that the bonds be issued under the laws of New York State, not Greece.

    If Greece stays in the eurozone, there remains some chance that they will benefit from increased trade they would not otherwise get. They also add their weight to the politics that favor deft forgiveness rather than austerity.

    It's really Germany that should be looking to leave the euro.
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Gold [View article]
    Expect another wave of "manipulation" now that the bullion banks have set the GOFO rates positive again. Who knows where they acquired the gold from, but they were able to close their short positions and are now set up to go short again in 2015. Greece is the likely "excuse". When the euro slides relative to the dollar, it puts pressure on gold too.
    Dec 10, 2014. 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment