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David at Imperial Beach

 
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  • I Wouldn't Get Used To $65 Oil [View article]
    The article speculates on what the lowest cost producers can survive on. That's never the right question to ask. The glut will abate when the highest cost producers have to cut back. The lowest cost producers will survive in any eventuality. The highest cost oil producers, AFAIK, are US frackers, and many of them will be unable to finance further wells at these prices.
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors leads owner satisfaction survey [View news story]
    So Frank, what you're telling us is that it's not old news after all. It was only reported to subscribers before the general public. Thanks for the previous misinformation...
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:19 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Earning Tens Of Thousands Of ZEV Credits, Tesla Has Built Zero Swap Stations [View article]
    What's your real beef, Alberto? The company qualified for the fast refuel credits by demonstrating the capability under the current rules. But the entire concept of battery swapping was proven unappealing to EV customers in Israel by Better Place, so Tesla has been slow to implement an expensive recharging infrastructure when they've come up with a much more appealing and economical supercharging system. Now the state has changed the rules for future years, so Tesla is building a pilot swap station which should, in fact, be here within the next 30 days. This will, as you so ably demonstrate, allow them to continue to qualify under the new rules. But the concept is still no more appealing than before. The only reason for Tesla to be offering it is that ZEV incentives are being offered for having it. Are you saying the company should ignore the stupid law and not try to cash in on it?
    Dec 2, 2014. 03:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Forward Rates Plunge [View article]
    See http://bit.ly/1p7iZbY for current GOFO rates.
    Dec 2, 2014. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Investors Are Ignoring What Elon Musk Really Said About BMW [View article]
    Do you really think you're looking at a permanent phenomenon when you see the price of gasoline drop by a buck? Isn't it obvious to you that the price of gasoline fluctuates wildly at least every six months and you're looking at only a temporary low? Oil is now trading below the cost of some frackers. They will have to stop drilling new wells and let their current wells run dry at this price. And fracked wells run dry relatively quickly, so it won't be too long before the oil market is back in balance again, but with fewer frackers after the shake-out.

    Oh, and since Tesla doesn't advertise, how can they possibly advertise the cost of the car net of gasoline savings?
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Investors Are Ignoring What Elon Musk Really Said About BMW [View article]
    Tesla is not merely a dot com froth stock. During the internet bubble there were companies so far from earning money they had no product and no monetization plan. All they had was an idea for a website that may or may not be useful. Tesla has a product, production and service and sales facilities, and actual customers, and positive gross margin. Furthermore, electric vehicles are not going away, and Tesla is executing well in its market niche. There is no reason whatsoever to think it will "disappear".
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:48 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Investors Are Ignoring What Elon Musk Really Said About BMW [View article]
    Tesla has always insisted that it was they that killed the RAV4 project, not Toyota. They say they did so because they would have had to cut back on Model S production in order to accommodate the increased volume that Toyota wanted. So yes, Toyota does know.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:39 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Investors Are Ignoring What Elon Musk Really Said About BMW [View article]
    Anyone who's ever talked to the press knows that only about half of whatever you say ever actually gets published, and even that is likely to be so distorted as to be unrecognizable.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:36 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down day for Tesla Motors amid new debate [View news story]
    Tempest in a teapot.
    Dec 1, 2014. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Deliveries In Europe Show Strange ASP Increase [View article]
    Huh? Musk may tweet here and there to correct some misimpression, but a tweet is not a lawsuit. The only libel lawsuit they ever brought was against the egregious British automotive comedy show Top Gear.
    Dec 1, 2014. 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Deliveries In Europe Show Strange ASP Increase [View article]
    Registration delays only partially cancel out when deliveries grow Q-over-Q. When there is growth, you should see more deliveries slop over the end of a timeframe than previously slopped over at the beginning of the same frame.

    The fact remains that the company's numbers are more reliable than your estimates simply based on their having a more reliable methodology.
    Dec 1, 2014. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Deliveries In Europe Show Strange ASP Increase [View article]
    Actually, CP, the company explained that "~$750 million of unfinished goods" number during the conference call. You don't have to make any of your dodgy assumptions. Part of the increase is attributable to an intended build-up of parts inventory in the service centers. The rest of the increase is unintended parts build-up at the factory for cars they were unable to build in Q3 due to excessive downtime. The company does not stack partially cooked hamburgers like at McD.
    Dec 1, 2014. 12:15 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Is Collapsing [View article]
    GOFO rates continue to trend more negative, indicating an increasingly acute shortage of physical metal. Shorting is not warranted.
    Dec 1, 2014. 11:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Improved Commodity Prices Should Spur Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    China's growth is only slowing. It's not in suspended animation like the US, nor having a near-death experience like Europe, nor is it shrinking like Japan.
    Nov 26, 2014. 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For A Gold/Silver ETF [View article]
    Or, now that silver appears to have bottomed, you could buy (USLV) and get 3x leveraged exposure to silver. Typically, when gold rises, silver rises more. When gold falls, silver falls more. (There's about a .81 correlation between gold and silver ETFs, but silver is more volatile.) Buying the ratio doesn't really buy you an effective hedge since they tend to move in the same direction most of the time. You're better off just buying a long ETF (USLV) when you think PMs are on the rise and switching to a short ETF (DSLV) when you think they are going to fall further.
    Nov 26, 2014. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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