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David at Imperial Beach

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  • Analyzing Tesla's Demand And How It Will Drive The Stock [View article]
    Well, Tesla borrowed $2B to build the box and their share of the equipment inside it, and also to provide renewable power to it. Panasonic will be expected to provide the equipment to build the battery cells, and when all the equipment is in place the total bill on that equipment is expected to total more than $2B. Tesla's share of equipment inside the building will be to assemble battery cells into battery packs, and also to recycle used battery packs. All of that equipment will be reusable even if another cell chemistry is ultimately used. All that is required is that they stay with a relatively small cell size, like the 18650 form factor.
    Sep 17 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Tesla's Demand And How It Will Drive The Stock [View article]
    You're way off in your estimation of (TM)'s PE. According to yahoo finance it currently stands at 10.43.
    Sep 17 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Tesla's Demand And How It Will Drive The Stock [View article]
    It's silly to postulate a Model 3 without the gigafactory. Tesla won't build the Model 3 without the gigafactory for two reasons: 1) not enough capacity at Panasonic to build enough batteries at any price for 500K cars per year with 200 mile range, 2) too high a cost per vehicle to produce the Model 3 with a base MSRP of $35K.

    The big question to ask is, by 2020 will there be any rival battery companies able to produce batteries at $245/kWh or less? Apparently Lux thinks so. But then there is also the question of how many they can produce at that price. If they are only able to produce enough for a few compliance vehicles, then they are no threat to the Model 3.
    Sep 17 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Tesla's Demand And How It Will Drive The Stock [View article]
    So what? The supercharger network is only in its beginning stages in Canada. But Canadian Tesla owners can still plug in to whatever 110 or 22 volt outlet they can find, or even a CHAdeMO charger if they can find one.
    Sep 17 01:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Tesla's Demand And How It Will Drive The Stock [View article]
    What makes these CHAdeMO chargers exclusively Leaf chargers? Teslas can also charge at CHAdeMO chargers too, you know.
    Sep 17 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity ETF Flows: Investors Buy GLD, SLV Despite Falling Prices [View article]
    Perhaps more to the point, the dollar is unreasonably high right now, so you can buy more commodities with your dollars. Next year the Fed will have to raise rates to keep the dollar this high, and if they don't raise rates high enough soon enough the dollar will fall back. In other words, a rate hike has already been priced into the dollar. Meanwhile, inflation is priced into the euro. If they fail to get inflation because of ineffective QE, then the euro will rise against the dollar, and so will gold. And, of course, if the eurozone economy shows any real strength at all the euro will also rise, and gold will too.
    Sep 17 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ECB QE Is Bearish For Gold Prices [View article]
    The author mentioned two reasons for why ECB action is bearish for gold: 1) ABS purchases are somehow different in their effect than other forms of QE, and 2) the currency implication, a weak euro appears to strengthen the dollar, and a strong dollar is bearish for gold.

    Certainly the currency implication is correct. Weakening the euro also weakens gold, whereas weakening the dollar strengthens gold.

    But the author fails to show why ABS purchases are somehow different from other QE. Under QE3 the Fed continued to buy great quantities of treasury debt in addition to its MBS purchases. It's simply not true that the nature of the debt the Fed was buying had anything to do with the lack of inflation. It was all due to the banks continuing to hold onto the reserves generated by such purchases and not lending. Instead, the Fed paid them interest to leave their excess reserves at the Fed. The ECB now charges banks interest in analogous circumstances. Will they now lend? Or will they simply hold onto the reserves and forgo any interest payments?
    Sep 17 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patiently Waiting For Mean Reversion [View article]
    <<Goldberg wrote last month: "[I]ndex funds are designed to give you all the upside of bull markets and every bit of the downside of bear markets. Only good actively managed funds can protect you from some of the pain of a bear market.">>

    Unfortunately, there is likely no such thing as a consistently good actively managed fund that can protect you from some of the pain of a bear market. This has nothing to do with being well-managed. It's simply the fact that nobody can predict the future reliably. Typically, actively managed funds get whipsawed. They go to cash or other defensive positions, and as soon as they do, the market turns right around and heads back up. So you end up losing performance on the upside. Then the management becomes bolder and stays in the market longer, and doesn't take defensive action soon enough to protect against the next downside. Defensive action taken too late only exacerbates the loss through useless or even counter-productive trading activity.
    Sep 17 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Discontinuity That's Not In The Market [View article]
    The upward sloping line is pricing in the very factor you are talking about. Why you think it should be discontinuous at the red line evades me. Looking at the Contracts column of your Projects table shows why there is not more discontinuity. Most of the projects are already fully subscribed.
    Sep 16 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors cleared to sell directly to consumers in Massachusetts [View news story]
    What problem? Thanks to the Fed, the auto makers can raise plenty of cash, as can every other Fortune 500 company. They buy out their dealers and then hire them back as field managers, if they're any good at managing. To avoid the hassle of getting 50 states to change their protectionistic legislation, they get the federal government to preempt it like they should have long ago.
    Sep 15 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commitment Of Traders Report Offers Investors Much Optimism On The Gold Price [View article]
    In Q4 last year, the price of gold was higher than it is now, and miners had started to hedge. Surely they are hedging at this price. Further, Chinese buyers were scooping up gold last year when it went "on sale" due to the ETF dumping. Surely now that it is "on sale" again they will be back at the trough.
    Sep 15 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Storms Headed Towards Tesla's Ship [View article]
    Speed bumps. They're all just speed bumps, and the Model S has Smart Air Suspension.

    Concerning the Chinese sales tax exemption, here's Elon Musk's full response: "Actually I've been pretty impressed with the Chinese government at all levels, the city level and the national level. They're actually -- I mean they have done some political [ph] actions maybe quite a bit in the past, but I don't think that's going to be the path going forward for them. And actually for the sales tax exemption, it does actually apply to non-Chinese cars. So I think you may be missing a point [ph] there. There are -- we have to adhere to Chinese charging standards, but we are going to do so. But the challenge was that those standards weren't defined until about a month ago. So it's a little tricky to adhere to something that is not yet definitively been announced. Now that it has, we're committed to meet those standards, and we expect to fit within the sales tax exemption. Yeah." As you can plainly see, he is saying that he knows Tesla has to comply with the Chinese charging standards in order to qualify for the tax exemption and he intends that Tesla will do so as soon as possible.
    Sep 12 07:50 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Storms Headed Towards Tesla's Ship [View article]
    Probably cheaper to just donate to a few key federal congressmen and senators and get federal law passed to preempt all state laws pertaining to auto sales. It's well justified under the constitution and there's lots of precedent for it in other industries.
    Sep 12 07:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Storms Headed Towards Tesla's Ship [View article]
    What $43,000,000? How did you come up with that figure when every headline on the internet says $1.3 million max in tax abatement?
    Sep 12 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Storms Headed Towards Tesla's Ship [View article]
    Tesla's position is that they are in full compliance with Georgia law. We'll see how that works out if they end up in court, but they have credibility with me.
    Sep 12 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment