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David at Imperial Beach  

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  • Tesla Posts Best U.S. Sales Month Ever, But The Overall EV Market Suggests Trouble Ahead [View article]
    The EV1 cancellation may have been the worst at the time, but that was before the ignition switch story broke.
    Jan 16, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Posts Best U.S. Sales Month Ever, But The Overall EV Market Suggests Trouble Ahead [View article]
    It should be noted that any car designed for American derrieres and legs will fit the average Chinese quite comfortably since they are nowhere near as bulky as the average American.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Posts Best U.S. Sales Month Ever, But The Overall EV Market Suggests Trouble Ahead [View article]
    He can't have a very productive life, since he pounces on every Tesla article within seconds. I wonder if his wife can even get him to unglue his eyes from the computer long enough to make love to her.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: $1,200 Production Break Even Level Held In 2014, Only Way Is Up [View article]
    "I personally expect that it will be triggered by a spike in oil prices from current low levels, to somewhere far above the $100/barrel plateau level we became accustomed to in past few years." You need to set more groundwork for this surprising conclusion. We aren't going to see any reversal in oil prices until one or more producing countries start cutting back on production.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Demand For Stocks Dried Up? [View article]
    You got a reference for your long term and short term money flow figures?
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Friday Will Be Tough Trading [View article]
    You seem to have cause and effect reversed. How could the oil price war "lead to a euro drop and EZ recession"? It's the recession (in Europe and elsewhere throughout the globe) that reduces oil demand and is the proximate cause of the oil price war. If there was enough demand for everybody to sell their oil at the previous price around $100 per barrel, then we would not be having an oil price war!
    Jan 16, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Late Stage Bull Markets: The Myth Of Stock Superiority? [View article]
    "stocks may require an indirect boost from members of the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. Specifically, the stock market may need to hear something that suggests impending rate hikes will be pushed back into Q4 2015 or Q1 2016" That would be a game changer even more dramatic than today's Swiss frank revaluation. The dollar will fall dramatically if the Fed puts off or eliminates the interest rate hikes it's committed to.
    Jan 15, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Dollar Is A 'Crowded Trade' - But Not In The Manner Most Think [View article]
    How about showing us some numbers? Yes, there's a lot of dollar denominated debt in the world, but there's also a lot of dollars and dollar denominated assets being held by foreign central banks and others outside the US. The US has run a trade deficit for decades--consistently since 1976 to be exact. (See http://bit.ly/YXuRfX ) This means that people in the rest of the world have accepted more dollars in payment for their goods and services to us than they've bought of our goods and services, and eventually they should want to spend those dollars on US goods and services. I don't see how the rest of the world can possibly be short US dollars when we've been running a trade deficit all these years. We simply haven't loaned out enough dollars to the rest of the world to balance out our trade.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Bear Market In GLD End With A Whimper? [View article]
    At this point yes, you ignore the emotional pain you're feeling, knowing that Rule and Sprott have the long-term numbers on their side. If you sell at or near a market bottom, you convert your paper loss into a real loss. If you hold on, the market will shift after the capitulation and you will be vindicated for following Rule and Sprott. Given the impending implosion of the euro, it's surprising how stable gold has been this last year. It's held up much better than most commodities, indicating a fundamental underlying strength.
    Jan 15, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Bear Market In GLD End With A Whimper? [View article]
    Actually, the strong dollar disadvantages manufacturing industries while favoring financial institutions. If the dollar falls, our exports become cheaper and our imports become more expensive. This motivates corporations to shift jobs from overseas back to our own shores, curtail imports and increase exports. For most Americans, it would be a very good thing to see a weak dollar and strong gold. There is no free lunch. A strong dollar favors some and hurts others, in this case a lot of others.
    Jan 15, 2015. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Bear Market In GLD End With A Whimper? [View article]
    What's going to be shook out is the euro. It's now becoming increasingly clear that it will not survive. The convulsions will not be pretty. It might survive somewhat if it is broken into two currencies, a north euro and a south euro. But there needs to be a major currency adjustment between Germany and practically everybody else in the euro.
    Jan 15, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold bear market over? [View news story]
    The Swiss bank took a big hit on its euro holdings today. Just punishment for its manipulation of the frank. Will it now return to buying gold instead? It certainly should because the euro is headed lower still.
    Jan 15, 2015. 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Will Set A New Model S U.S. Sales Record In Q4 2014 [View article]
    Nobody "forgets" the carbon footprint of power generation. But it's a much easier technical problem to solve if the power plant is stationary than if it is in a vehicle where weight is a paramount concern. So progress is being made if you divorce power generation from transportation units and make the power generation stationary. On the other front, there is also clear progress being made in adding renewable and carbon responsible sources to the grid.
    Jan 14, 2015. 04:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Latest Sales Projection For 2025 Is Next To Impossible To Achieve [View article]
    This coming year Tesla expects to double its capacity to build and service approximately 66K vehicles, after also doubling it in 2014 to 33K. If Tesla succeeds in approximately doubling its capacity every year or so for the next decade, and selling its total production, it will make and sell the following numbers of vehicles:

    2015 66000
    2016 132000
    2017 264000
    2018 528000
    2019 1056000
    2020 2112000
    2021 4224000

    They can slip that schedule by up to four years and still make and sell "a few million cars [by 2025]". It's admittedly a gargantuan task as TFTF pointed out in his article, but clearly not impossible. A few million cars would still make it a fairly small player in the automotive market, so they should find plenty of buyers if their products remain as competitive as they currently are. They have no need to fear from competitors.
    Jan 14, 2015. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Can Jack Up Your Income Portfolio, 6% Yield By 2017 Possible [View article]
    Well, whatever Ford management is, it is not rocket scientists. There is a car company with rocket science management, but not Ford.

    I was not very impressed with the Ford presentation at the Detroit Auto Show. These guys are struggling to look relevant, to adapt to the changing times, but it really looked like a farce to me. Horrible ghetto-blaster music was supposed to convey excitement for each new car or truck paraded onto the stage, but was actually an assault on the audience's ears. The speakers mostly spoke nonsense designed to include as many buzzwords as possible. They used "all new" a lot, apparently oblivious that all new actually means version 1.0 and unreliability. When is Ford going to realize that version 2.0 and 3.0 is when you start getting things right?

    More substantively, they did not show even one Lincoln model! Every other automaker on the face of the earth has figured out that profits come at the high end of the market, but this has somehow escaped Ford management for generations. Lincoln continues to be the stepdaughter dressed in rags and living under the stairs.

    Ford continues its retooling binge they started last year, with 15 new models globally this year. Retooling cut into profits last year, and the pain is not over for investors, it seems. It's clear to this outsider that 2015 will be another frustrating year of playing catch-up at best for Ford.
    Jan 13, 2015. 04:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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