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David at Imperial Beach

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  • Is Tesla An Energy Company? [View article]
    The complete picture is a supercharging station with a solar PV canopy generating electricity, and battery storage capacity to gather up that electricity and provide it to the vehicles at a much faster rate than the PV panels can produce it. So yes, batteries are included.

    The batteries and the solar panels are optional pieces that can be installed later as the capital becomes available.
    Aug 18 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Gold [View article]
    "One may ask; well, if interest rates rise won't the price of gold fall? And the answer is there are many times in history where interest rates and gold prices increased at the same time." Good point. The reason higher interest rates would make the price of gold fall is if the higher interest rates enticed investors away from gold and toward bonds. But in the current market, gold investors have already been largely enticed away into stocks, so interest rates don't have a lot of pulling power on those who remain. The remaining demand for gold is largely central banks and non-investment demand.

    However, in the current market a lot of investors are fearing the higher interest rates to come and have illogically jumped from stocks to bonds prematurely. Existing bonds lose value with higher interest rates too. So right now we have the situation that both stocks and bonds are priced extremely high, and gold is priced down near the cost of production (AISC). It only makes sense that when higher interest rates finally do come, it will be stocks and bonds that have big falls, while gold owners will escape relatively unscathed.
    Aug 18 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Gold [View article]
    Pretty hostile comment. The author is still a business student. Cut him some slack. How about a helpful critique of the article before you?
    Aug 18 07:18 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Gold [View article]
    The Feds are not watching inflation like hawks. It is barely even on their radar screen, not the #1 thing they are worrying about. They have 2% PCE as a target, but are making it perfectly clear that they are willing to tolerate inflation quite a bit higher than that before they let it change their policies. I'm not sure they're willing to go all the way to 4%, but even 2% is more inflation than I'm personally willing to tolerate with my savings. I don't want to lose nearly half my purchasing power in 30 years.
    Aug 18 07:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Retailers Could Be Headed For A Disaster [View article]
    Those of us who looked at the actual reports and results, and not just the headlines, were never convinced that weather was the cause of the slowdown. How come it wasn't just construction and other outdoor activities that was hard hit, but also factory work? How was it possible for Chrysler to have good weather when GM and Ford were having bad weather? The truth was, Chrysler was offering enough incentives to get customers into the showrooms and signed up on the dotted line, and GM and Ford weren't. Everything was pointing to a liquidity crunch, not weather.

    Right now, we're in a very gradually closing liquidity vice as tapering is on track to end in October, and interest rates to rise at least nominally next year. At some point the economy will start to spasm in pain at the pressure. Retail is just one of the first victims among many to feel the pain. The auto industry is positioned a little closer to the liquidity spigot, since the major automakers are able to finance many auto sales themselves through their financing subsidiaries. Also, many savings and loan companies specialize in auto loans.
    Aug 18 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia may ban car imports if West imposes new sanctions [View news story]
    (NASDAQ:TSLA) won't be affected. I know of no efforts yet to sell Teslas to Russians.
    Aug 18 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia may ban car imports if West imposes new sanctions [View news story]
    "China, the enemy of all nations that value freedom and human rights." That's pretty jingo-istic. All central governments hate freedom and don't think twice about human rights violations. In case you hadn't noticed, the feds have been busy eroding your freedoms here in the US for decades and this no longer feels like the "land of the free". We're living in a police state only one signature away from martial law at all times. The POTUS, the congress, and the supreme court do pretty much whatever they want and ignore the founding documents that are supposed to restrict their activities in the interests of the freedom of the people.
    Aug 18 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Gold Break Out Of Its Trading Range? [View article]
    Up. It will definitely be higher than today. If nothing else changes in the next five years, (wars, rumors of war, riots, strikes, monetary collapse, economic malaise, inflation) gold miners will be running out of the ores that they can mine at this price. How high? Pick a number. It really doesn't matter. Just for fun I'll pick $2500 per ounce. All you really need to know it that it can't sustainably go lower than today.
    Aug 18 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Gold Break Out Of Its Trading Range? [View article]
    It doesn't take genius to compare the price of gold to the AISC of gold and decide when you're getting a bargain and when it's trading at a premium. You've got to be prepared to hold it for years after you buy it, but that doesn't take genius either.
    Aug 18 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extreme Networks: Great Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
    I have no reason to be biased against the company. It came up on my stock screen. I examined it. I did not feel that it had very good prospects for long term investment, primarily because of insufficient market share in an industry that is experiencing a force that favors large competitors. Why would you want to buy a stock that you do not expect to grow in price, when it doesn't pay a dividend?
    Aug 18 06:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extreme Networks: Great Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
    If you want to trade it, good luck. Expect downside surprises. The reason I wrote the article was that it was one of the stocks selected by my screen criteria, which was searching for bullish movement in the last 3 months. It also met the screen's low price criteria, but when I examined it, I wasn't very happy with the company's long term prospects. The main problem is that they hold too small a market share, and the trend to cloud computing should be favoring big competitors.
    Aug 18 06:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extreme Networks: Great Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
    Perhaps more to the point, I don't see any suitors being proposed for this company.
    Aug 18 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extreme Networks: Great Value Or Value Trap? [View article]
    Sorry, I can't find my source for the Soros datum. I may have inadvertently used information from an old article from when his holding was much higher. Morningstar is reporting that Soros Fund Management LLC holds 1.62% of shares outstanding (1,566,666 shares) after selling 400,000 shares in Q2.

    The largest shareholding I see now on Morningstar is Paradigm Capital Management, Inc. with 4,810,000 shares, 4.99% of shares outstanding. BlackRock Fund Advisors has 3,498,013 shares as of 6/30/2014, 3.63% down 194,647 shares in Q2.

    Thanks for catching that I had somehow gotten hold of old data on Soros.
    Aug 18 06:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Keynesian Demise: A Cautionary Tale For Our Times [View article]
    The Fed isn't planning to sell its balance sheet. Indeed, it isn't even planning to let it retire when the bonds expire. It plans to continue reinvesting the principle, and maintain the mountainous balance sheet as a permanent feature on the monetary landscape, apparently forever. That makes this mountain the first of a continental upthrust mountain range, to be added to as each monetary crisis is encountered.
    Aug 15 06:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Stock Bias Adversely Affected Your ETF Asset Allocation? [View article]
    Long bonds will do well this year. Not really any question about it. But they will be sitting ducks for next year and the year after... The Fed has to raise interest rates if the economy continues to perform as well as it has, or lose credibility.

    And inflation will get worse the stronger the economy gets. No question about it. If you inject money into the economy (and not just bank vaults) it causes prices to rise. Inflation, of course, takes your beautiful, carved-in-stone long bond yield and shreds it in pieces. Actual, spendable profit? Fuggedaboudit! Worry about getting the value of your principle back instead.

    Don't tell me that inflation is currently at bay and is only 2% per annum. I can see that. Any bond investor also should know about the power of compounding over 30 years. At 2% inflation for 30 years, you get back 54.5% the real value of your principle. And that's if inflation doesn't drift higher at any time during those 30 years.

    As long as the Fed thinks 2% inflation is an acceptable target, long bonds are not a reasonable investment vehicle.
    Aug 15 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment