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David at Imperial Beach  

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  • A Model X sighting at CES [View news story]
    What makes you think the P85D has "old and dysfunctional seats"? At some point in the production run all Model Ss started getting updated seats. The P85D should be getting the updated seats just like all the others.
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Model X sighting at CES [View news story]
    Drop down "invisible" doors are even less popular than gull wing doors. But of course you can't put drop down doors on a Tesla anyway, so the point is entirely moot. Why? Because the battery pack is in the way of the pockets that the drop down doors retract into.
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's 200-Mile Electric Car For $30,000: RIP Tesla [View article]
    Females aren't the only ones with heavy keychains. Ever see the wad of keys a school janitor carries? But please consider the mentality of your comment. Is it really right to blame the victims? Is your comment fitting a pattern of misogyny?
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Euro Crash [View article]
    Your assumption that buyers of currency will invest in the local economy in the case of capital flight is not necessarily true. When capital takes flight from an economy with its own fiat currency, it is of course true that the capital must be converted from the local fiat currency into some foreign currency. But the counterparty to that transaction is likely to be, directly or indirectly, the local central bank as it buys up its own currency in order to prop up its value. If it fails to do so, and the flight is severe enough, the value of the currency will fall to zero and no outsider will want to hold it, thus rendering it useless.
    Jan 7, 2015. 04:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Euro Crash [View article]
    Your reference makes clear that it's counting both imports and exports in its 39%, not just exports. It's also clear from your reference that not all states of the EU are equally open.

    Germany (and the Netherlands) are running huge trade surpluses against the other members of the EU. Consequently, the rest of the EU are running trade deficits. This is the EU's real problem, not any openness or lack thereof with the rest of the world.
    Jan 7, 2015. 03:59 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Over The Long-Term You Cannot Bet Against China Because The Chinese Are Too Smart [View article]
    You can't make too much of these statistics. It's well-known that IQ only really measures acculturation, not potential for success in school or business. A large but fairly homogenous population such as China will measure higher on a Chinese IQ than the USA with all its diversity will measure on an English language IQ. Many residents here are not native speakers of English.

    Most hierarchical organizations only really make use of the full intellectual capacity of those at the top of the hierarchy. The rest barely engage their brain as they go about their routine daily tasks. It's debatable whether the majority of people have ever had an original thought in their entire lives! What do they need IQ for?
    Jan 7, 2015. 12:57 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disproving The Theory That Gold Trades Inverse To The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    The USD index doesn't actually measure the value of dollars directly. It measures the value of a basket of foreign currencies (including the yen, but importantly not the yuan) in dollars. Therefore the argument of your first two sentences is circular.

    As I have pointed out elsewhere, the vast holdings of gold by central banks and others is largely irrelevant to the price of gold because they are normally not being actively disposed of in the marketplace. If all that gold was truly "available" in the economic sense, the price of gold would be less than silver, since there is much less silver being held in existing stores. Most available gold (2/3 to 3/4) comes from newly mined sources. The bulk of the remainder comes from recycling in normal market conditions.
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disproving The Theory That Gold Trades Inverse To The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    And what, pray tell, is the semantic difference between "fundamentals" and "drivers of sentiment"? No matter what you label it, you're talking about supply and demand.
    Dec 31, 2014. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disproving The Theory That Gold Trades Inverse To The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Fundamentals do matter to the price of gold. It's true that there is a large "stock" of gold, but for the most part that stock is not available at current prices. Under most market conditions, most gold is available from the same processes as for other metals: mining and recycling. There are exceptional situations, such as when ETF holders decide to sell en masse, or when central banks decide to become net sellers instead of net buyers. But most of the time gold hoarders are not attempting to sell vast quantities of gold into the market, so the available supply is dominated by mining and recycling. There are perfectly sound reasons for wanting to hold gold on a long-term basis, it's not all "emotion". But even if it were all due to "emotion", that's not something that the human species is likely to transcend via evolution any time in the near future anyway.
    Dec 30, 2014. 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disproving The Theory That Gold Trades Inverse To The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Russia won't sell gold into the open market. If thy need to "raise cash" then they may have to trade (some of) their gold to a foreign central bank to acquire the fiat currency of that central bank. That's not an open market sale of gold. But that's a worst-case scenario. They also have the option of taking out a gold collateralized loan or any of several other transactions that don't require that they give up their gold irretrievably.
    Dec 30, 2014. 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disproving The Theory That Gold Trades Inverse To The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    When central banks (not governments, they are two different entities) print money and the local economy doesn't inflate, then it's because the money is failing to get into the local economy for one reason or another.

    It could be due to capital flight via the carry trade. This is applicable to Japan, and also to a certain extent the US and Europe. The carry trade exists whenever investors (or investment banks) take advantage of low borrowing costs in one economy, then convert the loan proceeds into another currency and make more profitable investments in a foreign economy with higher borrowing costs. Thus, money creation that was intended to benefit a local economy like Japan ends up being used to invest in riskier but more profitable third world economies.

    Another reason why money could fail to reach the local economy is if the central bank creates the money by buying up securities from banks, but the banks then just sit on the cash instead of lending it out. This has happened in the US, and also in Europe. The banks need to shore up their balance sheets to satisfy regulators so they refuse to lend, even though they have "excess" reserves.

    Another reason why money could fail to reach the local economy is if the local economy is destroying money as fast or faster than the central bank infuses it. Money gets destroyed when loans get paid off, or go bad and don't get paid at all. This too has happened in the US.
    Dec 30, 2014. 10:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disproving The Theory That Gold Trades Inverse To The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Given that nearly all the gold ever produced is NOT available at current prices, gold production matters greatly. If all the gold in gold hoards were actually on the market (i.e. truly available at current prices) then the price of gold would probably be lower than the price of silver, which has only about half as much metal stored in hoards.
    Dec 30, 2014. 09:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Production numbers the talk on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    Of course that assumes that oil companies and oil producing nations will continue to be batsh!t crazy and give away oil and gas at or below cost far longer than anyone has a right to expect. Those of us who still have long-term memories (and use them) will know that gasoline prices are rarely stable for longer than six months at a time. Those who have had their brains fried on drugs apparently think gas prices are never going to recover in their lifetimes.
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:54 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Variable That Will Determine Tesla's Future [View article]
    Anton's article is fair. He does not engage in name-calling or lying, and he clearly stated reasons for his position. Very commendable.

    There is one other option available to the ICE automakers that Anton missed, however: they could choose to buy into Tesla's supercharging network instead of establishing their own through a separate consortium. Tesla has indicated they are open to this option. It seems to me that this is the best option for all concerned. Tesla stays in business, but has to compete on the strength of their cars, not the supercharging network. The other automakers spend a mere pittance compared to an exclusive network of their own and they limit their expenditure proportional to the number of actual EVs they sell that use the network, and EV buyers have access to a large, well maintained state-of-the-art network. Win-win for everybody.

    I've been impressed by Tesla's execution so far. It seems to me that there are other compelling reasons for people to continue to buy Teslas even if other automakers buy into the supercharging network. But I admit that it's a complete no-brainer as long as the network is a Tesla exclusive.

    Another consideration is the gigafactory. People don't seem to "get" that other automakers can't compete on the scale of 500K long range vehicles per year without having their own source of battery packs just like the gigafactory. All of these so-called Tesla-killers can only be produced in compliance quantities until they have a similar supply of battery packs. And they can't get the price down to be competitive with the Model 3 unless they make the investment in manufacturing scale, either.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors tests the water below $200 [View news story]
    Shorts are never so overconfident as at the bottom of a market.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:00 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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