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David at Imperial Beach

 
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  • Apple's Brilliant iPhone 6 Surrender [View article]
    "Apple Pay may be the unsung hero of this product cycle..." Don't you mean over-hyped? In truth, I find it very convenient to swipe a credit card. My credit card weighs considerably less than any cellphone or even a watch and I don't have to wear it.
    Sep 11 02:23 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Hasn't Solved The Smart Watch Dilemma [View article]
    Not comical at all. A watch should not require a cord. Period. You should be able to set it in a recharging tray on your nightstand along with your smartphone and both should recharge at night while you sleep. In the morning, either one can beep, buzz or send up flares to wake you and get you out of bed, as you desire.
    Sep 10 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Hasn't Solved The Smart Watch Dilemma [View article]
    A guy with a gun can have anything you carry or wear, including your watch. He doesn't even need your permission to get it if he is willing to spill blood on the street.
    Sep 10 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Hasn't Solved The Smart Watch Dilemma [View article]
    Huh? Bad information is worse than no information! And in general you can't expect to average bad readings and get usable data. You can do such a thing only if you know that you're dealing with unbiased noise.
    Sep 10 12:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Warren Buffett Doesn't Take A Bite Out Of Apple [View article]
    On that point he is quite wrong. All it takes is determination, and the conviction that your company will be better off with lower cost solutions in the end. There are lots of companies out there that are willing to help you kick your IBM addiction.
    Sep 9 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Warren Buffett Doesn't Take A Bite Out Of Apple [View article]
    While Buffett was searching out sure things ("companies that have a significant amount of certainty") in 1996, he was missing out on the spectacular rise of Microsoft. Sometimes you gotta take a chance on an uncertain thing in order to earn the really big bucks.
    Sep 9 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Warren Buffett Doesn't Take A Bite Out Of Apple [View article]
    They are "sweetheart" deals because they are not available to the average investor.

    From wikipedia: "A sweetheart deal or sweetheart contract is an abnormally favorable contractual arrangement."
    Sep 9 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Warren Buffett Doesn't Take A Bite Out Of Apple [View article]
    There is no flaw in such an analysis. That circumstances change over time is a given. Your assumption that "all external factors remain the same" is what is flawed. But no company can grow to become one of the top ten without meeting one or more customer needs, no matter what else may be happening. Even if all else is miraculously the same, customer needs change over time.

    Larger companies are less maneuverable, less agile in responding to changing conditions. It's harder for a larger company to meet changing customer demand. They've invested a lot of capital in plant and equipment and R&D to meet a need with a particular technology. When a better technology comes along and meets the need better, they have to throw out all that investment and start over, and they are reluctant to do that.
    Sep 9 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Cards Could Make Apple Essential [View article]
    "Personal outlays by consumers is currently estimated at something around $14,000,000,000,000 monthly (seasonably[sic] adjusted), just to see the scale, if we were to assume that half of these dollar were transacted via credit card, the total addressable market per month would be 0.3% divided by 2 of this figure, or $21,000,000,000 per month, an absurdly huge number. I did the math on this several times because I couldn't quite believe it."

    Not nearly half of all personal outlays are transacted by credit card. In 2012 there were a total of 26.2B credit card transactions at an average cost of $94 per transaction. This makes the market size $2,462,800,000,000 annually, or $205,233,333,333 monthly. Multiplying that by .3% yields $615,700,000. Your absurd result was due to an absurd assumption.
    Sep 8 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iWatch Is About Data First, Fashion Second [View article]
    "The key to success would be to create ubiquity of data connections via a proliferation of iOS devices across many consumer product channels and industry sectors." In the words of David Letterman, I don't even know what that means. I'm pretty sure it's not true. The key to success is to offer compelling functions in a device that is stylish enough that the majority of people would want to wear one.

    I have to question what is so compelling about biometric data that a biometric iWatch is going to be considered a must-have item. Maybe athletes would want a biometric wristband to wear while they exercise, but as a 24/7 fashion statement? I really can't imagine anything more nerdy. If you're sick enough to need a 24/7 heart monitor you might be willing to forgo style, but for normal people, biometrics is not compelling most of the time.

    Truth be told, I'm nerdy enough to wear a Casio calculator watch, but I recognize that I'm in a very small minority, and I'm not sure even I want to wear a touchscreen device on my arm that is actually big enough to use.
    Aug 26 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPad Problem Is Lenovo's Wintel Tablet [View article]
    "The IBM partnership will certainly help iPad penetration in enterprise, and the hardware refresh is always good for at least a short-term boost." Investors should not assume any certainty associated with the Apple/IBM joint venture. IBM is not in a position to dictate to enterprise IT departments any more, and bundled deals fly directly counter to the BYOD trend. IBM is now a paper tiger and their bundled deals are not likely to be compelling. If I were a decision maker in an IT department I would insist that only hardware-neutral apps be implemented in line with BYOD policy. There are certainly vendors out there that are ready, willing, and able to implement their apps across multiple architectures.
    Aug 22 12:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Partnership With IBM Could Save The iPad [View article]
    Will IBM spike enterprise volume? Or will the IBM/Apple joint venture be a complete flop? My opinion is the latter. IBM is no longer in a position to offer bundled hardware/software deals to clients and have them accepted without intense scrutiny and questioning and competitive bidding from other sources. Long gone is the account control that once allowed IBM to dominate the IT departments of the Fortune 500.

    I see no reason why IT departments that were so recently emancipated from under the IBM thumb would voluntarily return to such a captive arrangement. The IBM/Apple deals will only work with Apple iPads, and this is exactly counter to the BYOD (bring your own device) trend that many IT departments now insist upon as corporate policy. If IBM's plan won't work with Android and Blackberry as well as iPad, it simply won't sell. IT departments have learned the hard way not to get locked into any one hardware vendor.
    Aug 21 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple As An Aspirational Brand [View article]
    What you wrote is absolutely true. But the Apple fanboys don't want to hear it. They've already bought their iPhones, and they think the price they (over)paid for the brand gives them prestige every time they use it in front of others. And of course they always find a way to bring it out and use it in front of others. That's why they need so many apps on their phone. They need excuses to whip their phone out and flaunt the logo to others. They refuse to admit that they were fools for overpaying for the device. They refuse to admit that the brand isn't as exclusive and exceptional as they make it out to be. They define the brand by how much they overpaid for it so they get extremely upset when anyone suggests that Apple should ever offer phones for cheaper than what they paid. Fortunately, everybody else is not obsessed with the cute Apple logo and they are surprisingly adept at ignoring all the posturing of the Apple fanboys.
    Aug 15 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's R&D Continues To Fuel Future Growth [View article]
    Sorry, Apple depends on supplier companies for substance. Apple is about style, pure and simple.

    Apple's "continuity" is basically what other companies call cloud services. If the service is based in the cloud, then you can get to it from any device. Guess who is the leader in cloud services. Not Apple, but it does start with an A. Amazon!
    Aug 13 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's R&D Continues To Fuel Future Growth [View article]
    His disclaimer says he may initiate a position within 72 hours. Your comment seems uncalled for considering that.

    My own feeling is that (NASDAQ:AAPL) is pretty close to fair value right now. It may be a safe place to park your cash while you wait for something better, but without more new product categories it's not going to take off again. Everybody who is excited about smartphones already owns AAPL and an iPhone.

    Apple could be spending a lot more on R&D than it is. But if we're never going to see those amazing new product categories come out the end of the pipeline, maybe it's a good thing Apple isn't wasting even more money on R&D that never comes up with products any more. One thing about Steve Jobs was that he never let the pipeline get bogged down. There was always something new and exciting in the works to be announced on a regular basis.
    Aug 13 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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