David Braunstein

Waiting for Financials' Other Shoe to Drop

You are right on! I'm avoiding financials too, and most retailers except liquor and beverages. The Fed is injecting massive liquidity into the system, but it's pushing on a string. No one want to make loans in this environment. Remember, housing and construction got us out of the tech bubble. With those pillars broken, I expect to see new lows in the markets below the 1999-2000 lows before we see the bottom. My guess is that we may see new highs in about 10 to 12 years. Oil prices will trade between $80-$120 during that time. The problem will be deflation, not inflation as the rest of the world lowers their interest rates while ours stays steady. The USD should rebound to 1.15 to the Euro over that time period. Many banks will likely fail. Unemployment could reach 7%. But in the end, the U.S. economy will eventually strenghen and recover. This is not Armagedden, but it will feel like it for quite a while.